For horserace fans: Rasmussen’s national poll from June 18th has Clinton at 38%, Obama at 27% and Edwards at 16%. With shrinking undecideds among likely Democratic primary voters, the other Democrats – who remain far back with Richardson at 3%, Biden at 2% and Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel at 1% each – are given little chance of moving into the top tier:
It is interesting to note that 81% of likely Democratic Primary Voters currently express support for one of the top three candidates… Barring a major mistake by one of the big three candidates, it is difficult to envision a scenario for any of the second tier candidates to capture the nomination.
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That rock solid support low-information voters traditionally grant in June.
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Horse race stuff is all fun and games, but at this point 4 years ago, Lieberman was in great shape for the nomination.
No argument it’s early, and there’s plenty of track still to be run, but Lieberman wasn’t a serious contender even in June 2003:
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Also note the higher number of undecideds in 2003…
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Kos had a post up with a Gallup poll in mid-June that had Lieberman at 21, Gephardt at 17, Kerry at 13, and then Dean tied with Bob Graham.
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Heck, many days I forget that Graham even ran.