The question was worded:
“What if the primary or caucus in your state was narrowed down to Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama? Regardless of your choice for president, if the election were being held today for whom would you vote: Clinton, Edwards or Obama?” *Names rotated. Results include leaners.
Now the full field had more fluctuations between the two and also included Gore, but the consistency at the top tier is still there. It’s starting to indicate to me that, (though unlike the Republicans we have a full slate of great candidates and there isn’t the same atmosphere of apathy), the top tier are starting to reach a limit on their base on the national scene. I think the Iowa and NH polls are most important and Nevada and SC next, followed by other early states, but the way the it’s basically solidifying nationally is fascinating.
I wonder if the frozen poll numbers are a reflection of not a lot of people paying attention yet. Although they list “unsure” as category, I’d like to see a poll which asks how solid people are in their preferences at this point.
I don’t think national polls really give much insight, but the undecided I think was larger for the full field: these 2 polls were the secondary question of if it were just those 3. There is probably a lot of people unsure of who they’ll vote for in the end, but do have a strong preference among Clinton, Obama, and Edwards.
<
p>
I think the recent UNH poll had a really good breakdown by strength of support among each candidates: http://www.unh.edu/s… for Democrats and http://www.unh.edu/s… for Republicans.
it wasn’t UNH. I’ll try to find the right one.