Here’s how it works: any person who is over the age of 18 may vote for their preference for the presidency by buying a $35 ticket. They need not be a republican, nor a registered voter. The candidates can buy large quantities of tickets and distribute them to supporters or would-be supporters for the exchange of their vote. Additionally, candidates can set up booths, tents, information centers, tables (extra $$ for air conditioned) in order to make their case, provided that they pay the state party. Moreover, the candidates can give away free food, shirts, trinkets, etc. provided that they pay the state party. Candidates can engage in any type of kitschy campaigning (look for Elvis impersonators! Giant watermelons! Harleys!), provided that they pay the state party.
Essentially the candidates are seeing who can pay the most money to buy tickets for people who may or may not be voters to gain entrance to an event where they will have to spend more money on keeping them interested, fed, and cool. If a candidate can successfully do all of that, then they may be able to win a poll that means nothing. Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani who, along with Arizona Senator John McCain, is NOT actively participating in this straw poll (despite the fact that he’s leading the GOP field in every survey across the spectrum) once remarked that the straw poll “sounded like a bit of a shakedown.” He was wrong. It is a total shakedown.
In addition to Giuliani and McCain, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson (who may or may not be a candidate) is also skipping the straw poll. This means that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the only top-tier candidate giving it a serious run. I love irony. See, Mitt was banking on a huge win at Ames over his better-known rivals. While he seems to be polling well in NH and IA and has been adept at raising a formidable war chest, Mitt is still stuck in the single digits nationally. An Ames win would show real momentum. As such, Mitt’s been working the state hard and has spent upwards of $2m in preparation for tomorrow. But, a funny thing happened on the way to the Elvis tent. The big three candidates decided not to contest the straw poll, so now Mitt is being written off. Of course he’ll win, the chattering classes say, but if he doesn’t win by 80%, then his campaign is in trouble. Be careful what you wish for…
Here are my predictions for the order of finish for the Iowa GOP Straw Poll, weigh in with your own thoughts in the comments:
1.) Mitt Romney
2.) Mike Huckabee
3.) Sam Brownback
4.) Rudy Giuliani (this would be a huge win for Rudy, as he is not contesting the poll. Additionally, if he could break into the top four, that would dominate the news coverage.)
5.) Fred Thompson
6.) Tommy Thompson
7.) Tom Tancredo
8.) John McCain
9.) Duncan Hunter
10.) Ron Paul
11.) John Cox
Cross posted at: http://mattomalley.b…
Even after the famous McCain flip on ethanol?
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THAT would be the headline.
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What about Fred Thompson? No Frednecks in Iowa?
DA Arthur Branch will not be listed on the ballot. However John Cox (?) will; so I’d like to amend my list to include Cox as number 10.
Ditto McCain? Or does he figure one pro-ethanol statement will get him through?
Today’s ABC news story says:
“The names of former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will not appear on the ballot — even though both are mulling an ’08 bid. Thompson isn’t showing up at Ames poll, but he will begin campaigning in Iowa on Aug. 17.”
Source: http://abcnews.go.co…
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Yet, according to the Iowa GOP, Thompson is listed on the ballot.
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Link: http://www.iowagop.n…
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Hmm, methinks I’ll have to reassess my predictions…
Obama leads McCain among Iowa Republicans.
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Mind you, that means nothing concrete. Not only is there statistical noise with numbers that small, but Obama won’t appear on the straw poll ballot, and caucusing is conducted by party. Does this make Obama “more electable” in the general, and does it point to the upside of adopting Republican frames on religion and funding the war?
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Yes possibly, and definitely no — since he has to win OUR primaries before he can win the general.
It would be fun if lots of Ron Paul supporters decided to move the needle in Ames!
There’s a lot of netbuzz — not enough to move the caucus totals?
Jim is absolutely correct in noting that Ron Paul, a libertarian at heart, has a dedicated (albeit small) following among the red netroots. This explains why anytime there is an online GOP poll, Paul usually wins it (or comes close). Additionally, he has been raising a respectable amount of money for someone who is to be considered an “also-ran” and, I believe, is third in terms of republican cash on hand. That being said, can this translate into a better showing at Ames? I say it’s doubtful. Paul’s supporters, while loyal, aren’t large enough to mobilize en masse, and he has a snowball’s chance in winning over the few undecided’s that are to attend Ames. The conservatives bristle every time Paul (correctly) criticizes Bush and the war and seem to genuinely dislike him. Look for Paul to continue through the pre-primary process as a happy warrior (the GOP Mike Gravel) and then try to put all of his eggs into the basket known as New Hampshire. That may be the only place where his libertarian drum-banging may not fall on deaf ears among the GOP.
Paul has a following is far more substantial than just netroots. He has a pretty decent mobilization in Iowa right now, one that is better than the other candidates in his tier. MSM pictures of Iowa and video from people who are there show two different Ron Pauls; one with supporters here and there and one with crowds.
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Look for Ron Paul to be in the Top 5.
I actually held my nose and cast a vote for him as the Libertarian Party candidate for the pResidency in, I believe it was, 1988. It was a protest vote, of course, because I couldn’t stand either Dukakis or GHWBush.
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Fast foward to the mid 1990s. Paul had been elected a rePresentative from some backwater district in TX, as a Republican. We were surprised to receive a letter signed by him asking us to contribute to…Jesse Helms’s re-election campaign. Jesse Helms? The 2d mouthiest bigot then in the Senate, after Strom?
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That’s what led me to conclude that the Libertarians are stupid, and the Republicans even worse.
1.) Mitt Romney
2.) Mike Huckabee
3.) Fred Thompson
4.) Ron Paul
5.) Sam Brownback
6.) Tom Tancredo
7.) Rudy Guliani
8.) John McCain
9.) Tommy Thompson
10.) Duncan Hunter
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11.) John Cox