Prediction markets work by posing a well formulated question and getting people to bet on it’s outcome. A well formulated question is one that has a clear outcome and a specific time deadline on which to analyze the outcome. Will BlueMassGroup drop David as an editor by August 10, 2007? is a well formed question. How sucky are David’s posts? is not a well formed question.
Once a well formed question is posed, users can buy options [in inklingmarket’s case, using imaginary currency]. If you think the outcome is more likely than the price, you buy. Less likely, you sell [or even sell short]. This works both for probabilities [the sum of the prices should always be approximately $100 since being right pays out $100] or for actual numbers. Why am I explaining this when you could just click here and read all about it.
Bottom line: you can play too, and use your chits to “bet” on what will happen in the future, thereby effecting the marketplace and helping participate in a sort of survey on what’s likely to happen in the future — including who will win MA-05. Sound interesting? Go to inkling markets, sign up for a free account, and get started!
P.S. I included a link to show the current price of the MA-05 race [like the one here], but the inkling way to do that is with a script, and I doubtsee that soapblox will not allow it. We shall see…
* I have no financial interest in inkling markets or any other prediction market — I just think this kind of stuff is cool.
A single buyer or seller can strongly effect the price of any share, as there are so few people invested. Thus, it is not as reliable as a higher-use market. I learned this to my chagrin on my first foray.
which is why more users result in higher fidelity. So, buy now, when there’s still such opportunity for gains! đŸ˜€
I actually prefer it if the dems remain cocky re: the winner of the primary wins the general. đŸ˜‰ Because the loss will smart that much more. đŸ˜‰
but since when have polls around here been complete or consistent? If you have a preference that’s not there, well, what can I tell you… make your own unscientific and for-entertainment-purposes-only poll.