Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Iowa straw poll: Mike Huckabee is the real winner

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Obviously, Romney came in first.  But that was a foregone conclusion.  The real question was the hotly-contested battle for second place between Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee (McCain and Giuliani did not participate).  Here are the results:

Results of Saturday’s Iowa Republican Party Straw Poll.

Candidate Votes Percent

Mitt Romney 4,516 31.5

Mike Huckabee 2,587 18.1

Sam Brownback 2,192 15.3

Tom Tancredo 1,961 13.7

Ron Paul 1,305 9.1

Tommy Thompson 1,039 7.3

Fred Thompson 203 1.4

Rudy Giuliani 183 1.3

Duncan Hunter 174 1.2

John McCain 101 1.0

John Cox 41 less than 1

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Source: Iowa State Party Chairman Ray Hoffman

Interesting that Huckabee + Brownback > Romney.

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Comments

  1. has always impressed me. He’s incredibly articulate: while I think most of his views are absolutely insane, he makes a good case for them. Part of it is that I think he’s incredibly soft-spoken and was a minister (preacher?), but in any event he’s a very slick guy. Frankly, I’ve been surprised that he’s been in the lower tier all this time given that Romney has questionable conservative credentials and Fred Thompson isn’t in the race yet.

    • that it would not be:

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      Obama or Clinton or Edwards

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      vs.

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      McCain or Romney or Giuliani

      Maybe Gore, maybe Gingrich, or maybe a star rises from the lower ranks, much like Bill Clinton did 16 years ago.

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      I’ve also felt that Huckabee would be a tough candidate, with tremendous similarities to Bill Clinton.  Of course, I’ve also felt that Richardson would be a tough candidate, and he has yet to rise to that expectation.

  2. To even call this a vote is border-line idiotic. As NYT reported:

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    In addition, this was not exactly a textbook case of American democracy in action. It cost $35 to cast a vote, and most of the campaigns picked up the cost of the voting tickets. Mr. Romney dispatched a fleet of buses to bring in his supporters.

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    A better table would look like this:

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    Amount spent on votes at Iowa’s Republican Party Straw Poll.
    Candidate [$$$ @ $35/vote] Votes Percent
    Mitt Romney [$158,060] 4,516 31.5
    Mike Huckabee [$90,545] 2,587 18.1
    Sam Brownback [$76,720] 2,192 15.3

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    And so on.

    • I was hoping/expecting Ron Paul to do better than he did and for Huckabee to do a whole lot worse.

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      At this stage in the game it looks clear that Tommy Thompson is out and possibly Duncan Hunter. Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul are really just there for the debates so they will be around for awhile (like Kucinich and Gravel on our side).

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      One just has to wonder if either Brownback or Huckabee dropped out and endorsed the other if that would significantly change the race, uniting social conservative and certainly hurting Romney and Fred. But it seems that the two men dislike each other, especially since a Huckabee surrogate made anti-Catholic remarks, which is good for us since we would not want either crazy man in the White House, but also bad for us since I doubt most Americans would either.

    • at least according to the Globe.

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      While Romney won handily, Huckabee made the case for why his showing may be the most important story coming out of the straw poll. Huckabee said his showing was impressive because he had little money to spend. “You have taken a minimum amount of resources and made a maximum amount of gain,” Huckabee told backers.

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      It would be useful to tally up the actual amount of money spent per vote obtained/purchased.  My guess is that Romney is far, far higher than Huckabee.  There’s no doubt that Huckabee gets a significant boost from his second-place showing — suddenly he, rather than Brownback or the still-not-in-the-face Fred Thompson, is probably the credible “conservative alternative.”

      • From USA Today:

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        ? Second-place finisher Mike Huckabee spent about $150,000 and received 2,587 votes. That’s $57.98 per vote.
        ? Winner Mitt Romney has not said how much he spent. The reporting in this Washington Post article suggests at least $2 million and possibly more than twice that much. Assuming $2 million for 4,516 votes, that’s $442.87 per vote. But it could top $1,000.

  3. Mitt buying votes in Iowa and catering events for the straw poll is laughable.  CNN Poll tells you more about his campaign:

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    would be the toughest leader?
    who is honest?
    who is likable?
    Has the best chance of beating the Democratic nominee in the general election next November?
    Has the right experience to be President?
    Is the most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief?
    Is most likely to bring needed change to the U.S.?

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    Between Giuliani, Thompson, McCain and Romney, Mitt is last in everything except for likable, his 9% duking it out with McCain’s 5% for last, while Giuliani has 44% and Thompson has 20%.

    • Good grief.  The man’s ego is the size of Manhattan.  He’s downright spiteful, and doesn’t care about the collateral damage.  He’s cheated on his wives, and treated them poorly in public.  His kids don’t like him.  The NYC emergency response teams all have nasty things to say about him.

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      Giuliani is a lot of things, but likable doesn’t seem like one of them.

      • on the stump, unless he gets annoyed, he seems likable. He probably has the best off the cuff speaking style of any GOP candidate. He seems very natural.

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        But, he gets annoyed a lot, and then the mean side comes out.

  4. a better headline to results of straw pool might better be that ROMNEY IS A LOSER.TWO THIRDS OF IOWANS AT STRAW POLL VOTED FOR PEOPLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN HE. 
    results also show the real need to use INSTANT RUN OFF VOTING to get the truE results of how voters feel.
    the only good results of Poll Headline is that Romney thinks he won and will continue to spend money on a losing effort. 

  5. and a mile wide. Of course in Mitt’s case, his support is measured in dollar bill$.

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    The more I see of the GOP race, the more absurd it becomes. Last night during his victory speech, Romney gave us this:

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    “If there’s ever been a time we need to see change in Washington it’s now”

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    Many Americans do want change, and step one is  throwing the GOP out of the WH. For all his money, Romney can’t seem to muster a coherent message.

  6. …in a state that has more cornstalks than people,why should anyone place any credence in a “straw poll” that draws less than 30K people?  (Do the arithmetic, people)

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    This crappola is nothing more than for the advertisting people.

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