Joe Biden ⇔ Well, at least he won’t be chased out of this primary season for stealing other peoples’ speeches. Joe has a good record, but not as extensive as Hillary or Richardson, which leaves him with a tough road ahead. No major endorsements to report, he still remains static in the polls, and nothing memorable from his shot at questioning General Petraeus last week.
Hillary Clinton ⇑ Minor union endorsements, and a strong but unsurprising thumbs-up from General Clark (and much of the California Dem establishment). Rudy Giuliani’s attack ad on her only help the Clinton campaign, and the lobbyist attacks seem to have done little, if any damage. The window to really dislodge her is closing for the other campaigns.*
Chris Dodd ⇑ The IAAF (Firefighters’ union) endorsement is huge for Dodd. It gives him a metric where he plays with the big guns — endorsements — and favorable comparisons to last cycle’s come-from-behind winner. But, similar to Biden, there’s an impressive gauntlet for Dodd to fight through to reach the top tier.
John Edwards ⇓ Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. If Edwards loses Iowa, he’s done. And Edwards has lost about 5 points there since March. Absent any major balancing news (and minor union endorsements aren’t major news), bad news in Iowa is bad news for Edwards.
Mike Gravel ⇔ Unless there’s a debate on, who really remembers that he’s running? Does he?
Kucinich ⇓ How do things get worse for Kucinich? The Mayor of Parma — Ohio’s seventh largest city — is considering joining the three existing candidates in the Democratic primary for his Congressional seat. If all four stay in, Dennis may split the anti-globetrotter vote. But you lose any claim to seriousness if you just scrape up 35% in the primary for your seat in Congress.
Barack Obama ⇓ Obama needs daylight badly. A good headline from the League of Conservation Voters, and a smart stance on Cuba, aren’t providing it. Across nearly every state and company, polls show him fading badly from earlier this year — a recent LA Times job in NH gives him less than half of Hillary’s total, and he’s yet to top Hillary in South Carolina. The hype has cooled, and not much has replaced it.
Bill Richardson ⇓ Another month, another collection of d’oh moments. Is Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status endowed by God or not? Was he joking or not? Who knows. No campaign can withstand such a gaffe assault, and Richardson’s no exception.
* Note: I know that Dean was looking inevitable at this point in 2004. To give an analogy however: Dean’s campaign was basically trying to build a 747 after it had already taken off. They got the plane done, but didn’t have any idea how to land it when the time came. The Clinton campaign is a 767: not as splashy or noisy, but durable and reliable as heck. If Dean & Co. were trying to figure out how to lower the wheels, Clinton & Co. have the wheels down already, two redundant systems just in case, and a crew fully trained in emergency procedure.
The inevitability of the Hillary nomination is starting to creek in, I cannot mention how bad her nomination would be. To put it politely if she runs she might win, if shes nominated she might lose, if shes elected she will be medicore. After 8 years of living under stinky garbage do you really want to live in an emptied dumpster?
Id rather live somewhere new, Obama is new, hes fresh, and to be fair he has a lot more experience and native intelligence than a lot of people give him credit for. But hes in a Catch-22, he needs to let everyone wake up from the Hillary is a winner fantasy and remind them why she would lose, but if he reminds them she will lose he will be going negative…and will lose. She wont fire the first shot as a frontrunner so basically its up to other candidates at this point to attack the frontrunner for their shot at attention and viability and maybe that will help Obama as it did Edwards and Kerry in 2004 after Gephardt and Lieberman savaged Dean.
Instead they attack…Obama. I swear Dodd, Biden, and Richardson are only running to divide the anti-Hillary vote and get jobs in the her administration and Richardson already had one so its not completely fantastical to imagine such a possibility.
I feel like Obama and Edwards must look at each other sometimes and think, “Can't you just drop out? Then I might have a shot to catch her.”
I disagree with jconway's prejudgment of her presidency, but I'm just back at work and don't have time to get into it.
I remain unaligned — happily. It's a strong field.
On Open Left, this has been examined a few times. There's polling out that asks people their second choice.
So who do you think is the second choice for Barack Obama voters? It's Hillary Clinton.
Who do you think is the second choice for John Edwards voters? It's also Hillary Clinton.
Even second choice voters for KBusch would vote for Hillary Clinton. We were very suprised at headquarters.
To be clear, I am not anti-Hillary and was not knocking Hillary.
however, my second choice is JD Drew. anything to get him out of right.
KB, I see your point. FoxNews has a poll that supports what you say, and here you'll find a UNH poll that has Clinton as as popular a second choice as Obama and Edwards. Given the current dynamic. But the removal of one changes that dynamic.
But that is presuming that Obama and Edwards don't change anything, should the other disappear. What baffles me is the amount of energy the campaign have put into overtly and covertly attacking each other, rather than going after Clinton. That energy, directed at Clinton — as well as sidle to the right now that the center-left is safely theirs — could change a lot of movement. Also, you're asking Bidne, Richardson, and Dodd folks, and I would certainly expect their second choice would remain Clinton. I guess I”m just reluctant to embrace something with a firm empirical backing that remains patently counter-intuitive.
the last year of the American middle class, so I find it hard to get excited about politics.
They are going to attack Iran driving oil well beyond the affordable zone. This will also be coupled with the global warming scam and the peak oil fairy tale. They are having a run on the banks in England right now.