So, being the politically-conscious Boston resident that I am, and now that the preliminary election for the district city council seat I live in is over, I wanted to hear everybody’s thoughts and opinions on the developing city-wide race.
BMGers, what say you? Is Flaherty as invincible as conventional wisdom would suggest? How much trouble are Arroyo and Yoon really in? How true a progressive in John Connolly? Do you think He’ll finally knock off Murphy? Does he deserve too?
Share your thoughts.
Please share widely!
Flaherty isn’t invincible or he would still be Council President. That said, I can’t see him finishing out of the money. Strong fundraiser, good city organization (you have seen all the Flaherty signs popping up lately right?) He could slip to the 3rd spot.
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Yoon and Felix have taken heat but it has been primarily from the Boston Herald. I don’t think the Howie Carr political followers are voting (or did vote) for Felix and Sam anyway. Progressives will need to pay attention to both these campaigns to keep both At-Large Councilors safe. The real danger to Yoon or Felix is that Connolly becomes the “flavor of the month” and draws voters away from them in a low turnout election.
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I like Steve Murphy. He cares about the city, works hard at being a Councilor. There is no better pro-Labor, pro-worker Councilor. Steve’s political views tend to be wide. He has sided with some real estate industry types on votes (which I attribute to his base vote of homeowners in the city). At the same time Steve Murphy has fought fiercely for low-wage workers, especially workers of color, in many battles. Murphy was an early Deval backer as well.
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The reality is, once again, Murphy is on the bubble. The Allston-Brighton race might help Murphy with turnout. In the past, a fifth place primary finish has activated his voter base in the November final. With no primary, the question that needs to be addressed is will Murphy voters make him a priority on November 6th.
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Connolly’s fundraising and strong finish in the last race make him a real threat to Murphy. He is hurt by the low profile of this year’s election. He has limited time to catch fire again. Murphy keeps his seat in a close race.
what do you imagine the pecking order will be this time around? If Flaherty falls to 3rd, does that mean Yoon and Arroyo get more votes than he does? I’d like to see it happen, since both of them vote more in line with my beliefs than Flaherty, but it seems unlikely unless he falls from grace much harder than just losing the city council presidency.
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Also, I think I read something in the Pheonix about how, if a vacency occurs in one of the AL city council seats, instead of having a special election, the 5th-highest vote getter takes the seat. Is this true?
1 Felix
2 Flaherty
3 Yoon
4 Murphy
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Flaherty could go #2 or #3.
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Yes, in the event of a resignation or open seat after the election the # 5 candidate does take the open seat.
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I opened the beer when the Sox won, so I will reserve the right to question my own opinion tomorrow.
Just want to make sure I read that correctly…”Steve Murphy cares about the city and works hard at being a councilor”???
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The truth is, Steve Murphy has given every indication at every opportunity that he would rather be doing anything but serving on the Boston City Council. He has run for Treasurer, Sheriff, and made numerous attempts to land a post in the Patrick administration, all while serving on the Council. If he wants out so badly, I say let him out, and let someone is who actually wants the job.
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On November 6th, I will most definitely be voting for John Connolly.
Steve Murphy cares about and works at being a good City Councilor.
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Running for another office isn’t an indicator that you don’t want or like your current seat. By your logic Jim Marzilli is a poor State Rep just looking to abandon the citizens of Arlington. And Martha Coakley never cared about the citizens of Middlesex County – I mean why would she abandon her DA’s position to run the AG if she was a “good DA”. Murphy has run for other positions and the voters of Boston have re-elected him after those races.
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As for positions within the Patrick Administration, spin it any way you want. The media coverage I have seen has mentioned Murphy for potential jobs. He remains a City Councilor and he is running for re-election.
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I never said I didn’t like John Connolly nor that he would make a bad Councilor. I have know John and his family for years. I just said I don’t think we wins this time out.
The Democrats of the Second Suffolk, a group of Ward Committees within that Senate District, will co-host a forum at the Boston Public Library/Rabb Auditorium in Copley Square on October 9. Meet and Greet at 5:30 pm, Forum at 6 pm. Our co-hosts are the Brian Honan Fellows from the West End House, young people particiating in civic leadership projects in the tradition of Councilor Honan’s life.
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Our moderator will be Sarah Ann Shaw, distinguished tv journalist and community leader from Ward 12 (Roxbury). The Fellows will ask several questions specifically pertaining to issues of young people and the future of our city.
I see another tight race for the #4 slot. Connolly’s certainly been working hard. Seems like he’s been running since the day after he came in fifth last time. He was at my polling place during the Disctrict 2 special election. He gave me one of those handy rubber discs that helps you grip hard-to-open jars. The other one of those I have is from a funeral home, not sure if that means anything.
Just from my impressions of the campaign, here are my predictions.
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1. Flaherty is very very strong. He got booted out of the Presidents seat because the Mayor put the order out to his minions on the Council to get him out, and they did. The Mayor recognizes that Flaherty wants a shot at him, and Menino knocked him down a peg. If he could, the Mayor would probably put his machine in play just to knock Flaherty down even further, but he knows he can’t really do that. He won’t lose ground where he was strong 2 years ago. He has name recognition, and gobs of dough. I think he wins first by a solid 5-to-7 points. (As comparison, he won first place in an 8-candidate field by 2 points in 2005.)
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2. Yoon should come in a strong second. There is certainly some legitimate concern about him. Questions have been raised about his work ethic and political instincts. But he’ll be very strong in the communities of color and progressive neighborhoods. His list of endorsements is impressive, from Deval and DiMasi to a lot of union support. It’s intriguing that the Hotel Workers (HERE Local 26) are not on there, despite it being a heavily minority union. They only do the Mayor’s bidding, and it seems clear that Yoon isn’t one of his favorites. Nonetheless, SEIU 1199 and Rep Sanchez have endorsed, showing that the Mayor isn’t pushing too hard against him. Very odd that the Janitors (SEIU 615) and Felix Jr. still haven’t endorsed. There must be some weird dynamics going on behind the scenes on that front. Still, 2nd place should be safe.
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3. Murphy is in good shape. Menino will put any election day operation he has into helping Steve. Murphy is so confident, I’m not even clear if he’s hired a campaign manager. Does he have a website even? Because there’s no Mayoral race, turnout will be down significantly in the communities of color. He came in 5th and 6th in most Roxbury/Dorchester/Mattapan/JP wards last time. East Boston, South Boston, Charlestown, West Roxbury, Hyde Park will put him in with ease. I would also guess that the Small Property Owners of America will put out a big mailing on his behalf as well, while the progressive housing advocates will remain silent, as they usually do.
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Here’s where it gets tough. I think 4th place ends up a battle between Arroyo and Connolley.
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4. Arroyo has name recognition, has been around for awhile, and is beloved by those least likely to vote in this election. But he’s raised no money, and doesn’t seem to be campaigning very hard. His jaunt to Venezuala, and his rampant absenteeism is pissing off some of his base. His website has a message up from January. His “Upcoming EVents” page lists events in August. He really needs Sam’s help to pull this off. I think he will, but barely. And then, for the sake of progressives across Boston, I hope he spends the next two years working to hand the mantle of citywide Latino/Minority representation over to his aid, Gloribell Mota, for 2009. Progressives in Boston need a leader.
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5. John Connolley is going to be a good elected official at some point in his life, probably sooner than later. But I’m not sure this is his time. John was a really impressive debater 2 years ago, and his story of working as a teacher in the Bronx really connects. He probably gets a bad reputation among progressives, because he’s running against Arroyo and Yoon. But in reality, his views are pretty similar to those of another progressive who got Yoon and Arroyo’s support: his law partner Tim Schofield. Nonetheless, a white Irish West Roxbury pol with a family political history probably isn’t going to make those inroads he needs into the progressive community. And too many of his votes are going to need to come from the same places that Flaherty’s and Murphy’s votes are coming from — two guys who will probably tell voters to bullet vote them. He should dominate West Roxbury, with help from John Tobin and Matt O’Malley. If people in Eastie, Southie, Charlestown, white Dorchester, Hyde Park, Roslindale, and Allston Brighton decide to vote for the three Irish guys, he could pull this off. More likely is too many of those voters will vote for Flaherty and Murphy only, and he’ll fall to 5th. The good news for him, though, is Murphy will probably finally take some Administration job soon after (with a 50% raise, and some job security), and Connolley will end up getting the job sometime in 2008 anyway.
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For me, the dream scenario in 2009 is Flaherty runs against the Mayor, Murphy is in the Administration, and our At-Large delegation is Yoon, Mota, Mariama White-Hammond, and Connolley.