Yesterday there was a lot of complaining about the Pike. Perhaps this is one solution. Before progressives everywhere wail about the evil, profit-motivated private sector getting their mitts on public infrastructure, you should read your own complaints. Keep your eyes peeled for words like “service”, and “customer.”
In the public sector lexicon, especially the Pike and the MBTA, these are missing.
A good example of how a lease deal of the Pike might look, see what happened when the Chicago Skyway was privatized. Case study here.
As the Herald article points out, politicians would oppose this type of deal…because it would remove from their control the toll revenue, and unions would object because…no more gravy train, fat pensions, “missing” toll receipts, and jobs for imbecile relatives.
I applaud the Governor for thinking about this.
BTW, where was the Globe on this story? Did they miss it (or did I?), or do they not consider it newsworthy?
raj says
Another of my little stories. We used to go into northeast Italy (Bozen/Bolzano, Verona, the Lake Como area) by car from Munich. The Autostrada were toll roads. One day, I looked at the toll ticket, and it appeared–I don’t do Italian–that the Autostrada was at least managed by, if not owned by a private company.
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Two points. One, the roadway between Austria to Bozen/Bolzano was one of the best maintained that I have ever seen. Two, the roadway was also mostly elevated–which was not easy to do considering the fact that it was through an extremely mountainous region.
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With the MA Pike, at least contracting out mananagement might not be a bad idea.
noternie says
Yeah, private companies have a monopoly on service.
Hospitals and doctors offices don't make you wait. And they certainly don't have problems with billing. All they care about is service and long term financial stability.
Airlines are not hemmoraging money and their performance (on time) and service (your flight was cancelled, good luck getting there, g'bye) are superior.
Public entities aren't perfect. But neither are private ones. For the moment, I feel more comfortable with government in charge of public services and facilities. Private companies do as much if not more stealing. But they call them profits and pretend they're doing nothing wrong.
centralmassdad says
I find that the service on Southwest and JetBlue is great, for a reasonable price. That is why I don't fly one of those carriers “hemmoraghing money.”
I had a doctor that did make me wait. Now I have a new doctor that doesn't.
Pretty simple, isn't it?
political-inaction says
Your favorite, or perhaps only logical, roadway is backed up, full of potholes, poorly plowed, etc. What is your option then?
In some parts of the state the option is to change from road to mass transit but not along the Pike.
centralmassdad says
You can't choose a new road, it is true, but you can get a new management company.
political-inaction says
That really does raise the big question here: why would any private corporation want to take this on UNLESS they could dramatically raise tolls?
If the ability to levy tolls will still, at least in some measure, necessarily remain with the state why would I, the big mega-company want to deal with the headaches?
I will be:
Where is my incentive? I can think of many other business opportunities I'd rather try.
bannedbythesentinel says
That IS a longer time frame.
The case study linked (Chicago Skyway) indicates a 99 year lease.
Other corporatized toll roads have similar long term leases.
mr-lynne says
… usually have escape clauses. Often these are based on a performance measure. These clasuses are usually written to the lessor's advantage.
So yeah, it is possible to write a lease (really an 'operate and / or maintain') contract armed with safeguards for the lessor.
bannedbythesentinel says
of private business, how much in kick backs does it take to keep your golden goose secure?
Usually a few discrete campaign contributions can keep an equitable situation equitable.
mr-lynne says
… of campaign finance and corruption. A related, but distinctly different, subject.
It is telling, however, that Europe seems to handle these kinds of contracts just fine. I don't know what the campaign finance rules are, but perhaps they are less corrupt and that explains why.
bannedbythesentinel says
about the ability of European nations mitigating such contracts smoothly, but European countries have a starkly different business and tax climate than we do. European countries have a much easier time regulating business in general, and balencing income equality and tax burdens.
On this side of the pond, corporatations rule the roost, and this ties back in with campaign finance and corruption, and hence the need for extreme caution when considering a privitization move that could very well be irrevocable.
political-inaction says
Going to an earlier part of this thread – a big difference between us and Europe is that they invest in rail.
If the corporation running the road does a poor job (paving, plowing, etc.) there actually IS another option – take the train.
mr-lynne says
… my point. These kinds of arrangements can work for all involved, but what is required is caution. The question is this: Is that kind of caution possible in the public sector side of the contract given the political context of the business climate here? I'm guessing that you'd say no. While I view the skeptisism as healthy, I do think it is possible for it to work, as long as the main caution of properly worded escape clauses provides the proper performance incentives.
bannedbythesentinel says
After seeing what happened with the Big Dig, that kind of skepticism is just natural isn't it? What was lacking then was extensive and thorough oversight. In order to provide that, we would need a dedicated public agency to manage the contracted company (or leasee).
Doesn't that seem like enough overlap and duplicated effort would make the project less efficient than if the MTA were just folded back under the jurisdiction of the governor's office?
At the end of the day, the only reason to move forward with leasing out the pike would be if it provided more of a benefit to the state than the current situation. Long term, I don't see that as possible.
mr-lynne says
… the agency overseeing such a contract is usually a State DOT or FHWA I would guess.
mr-lynne says
… your new fangled text box for comments is preventing firefox from picking up my typos.
mcrd says
Take rte 2 or rte 9
stomv says
this is a utility lease, not a private industry competition scenario. There is virtually no competition in highways — there aren't two of 'em right next to each other, serving the same communities.
You could use service roads, and you could go find a payphone every time you want to make a call instead of paying AT&T to have a phone in your home.
Whether the highways are private or public, you can't think of them as a competitve industry because there isn't redundant infrastructure. So, assuming that private industry is a pancea for MassPike service is like assuming that the private industry does a super, thanks for asking job in telephony, electricity, gas service, etc. You rarely hear people raving about the service in those industries either…
david says
I think they got scooped. The Herald article’s first paragraph ends with the telltale “the Herald has learned,” meaning that someone tipped them off. Apparently the tipster didn’t send it to the Globe. This would be front-page news at either paper.
noternie says
Could the tipster be a tall redhead with glazed eyes, a shirt half untucked and a little wobble in his walk?
Sirius just dedicated Ch 32 to him.
bannedbythesentinel says
This is the strawman commonly fed to the community by voices like the Herald and talk radio spinners. Let's see if it stands up to scrutiny:
“Gravy Train”: You don't even have to find an Enron to demonstrate the corporate “gravy train” that directs vast wealth to a few lucky or unscrupulous top level execs. Busting union positions and replacing them with worthless McJobs will change nothing other than redistributing that much more money from your local economies into some fat cat's private hedge fund account. Without the pensions, without fair pay, without the job security of an organized workforce, do you really think you have more effeciency, less corruption and less nepotism? I have never seen any evidence to suggest that these things diminish. To the contrary, these ills seem much more pronounced under the more loosly regulated private sector.
Look at any private corporation and you have fat bonus structures for execs who just cannot help but give themselves enormous gifts year over year, as much if not more corruption and fraud, less regulation, a hell of a lot less daylight in spending and operations, and an old boys network rife with cronyism.
On top of all that, you'd have the pike under the management of a corporation that, as it's first order of business, is to turn a profit. So on top of all the incentive to turn the pike into a cash cow meant to extract 7 figure compansation packages for imbecile relatives AND corporate cronies, you also have the committment of a corporation to squeeze even more money out of travelers for the purpose of turning a profit.
Lastly, the MTA is ultimately accountible to us. When they screw up, and the people raise a hue and cry, some politician or other steps in and takes action. What kind of recourse do you get when you're screwed by a big faceless corporation?
“Hello? Better Business Bureau? They raised the tolls again!”
david says
But it’s not. That’s been one of the big problems all along. More here.
bannedbythesentinel says
to clean up that baby and throw out only the bath water, If you know what I mean.
noternie says
That discussion linked to in your post should go in the BMG Hall of Fame, David.
And I would like to see reform a the agency in some form before just selling the road outright.
toms-opinion says
bannedbythesentinel says
toms-opinion says
Wasn't it just six months ago that the issue was whether or not to make the Pike toll free from Weston to Sturbridge and tear down the tollboths and eliminate “politically bestowed ” toll taker jobs ? …and now it's flipped to an outrageous toll increase on the horizon and a brand new toll booth at the “turnaround” complete with a staff $65k/yr toll takers plus ridiculous benefits? No wonder people are fleeing the State
The 128 mile long mass Pike has been and continues to be one of the most outrageously expensive “public” roadways in America ( if not the planet). So the question becomes ..Can the big bad “boogie man Corporation” make it any worse?
There are many folks that would gulp and stomach the one zillionth toll increase if only one of the “hack” nephews or brother in laws would say “Thank you” when you stuff $2 bucks in their fist instead of grunting and stuffing one of the two dollars in their pocket. The mass pike is totally out of control
bannedbythesentinel says
What is a “politically bestowed” job? Uncle Bob's new girlfriend works for the MTA so your couisin get's a job in a toll booth? If you have the EXACT same scenario and it is in the context of a private, for profit corporation, they call it “networking”. You know that corporitization of the pike will not lower tolls. You know that it will not improve service. Is it that you just like to look down your nose at toll takers and it's hard to do when they earn decent cash or have a pension?
…but at least you phrase it correctly:
Q. can a corporation make it worse?
A. Yes.
Thanks for playing.
toms-opinion says
a “nepotism” rule. Do you know what that is? Unfortunately , unless you've ever worked in the dreaded “private sector”, you probably don't.
When these “capitalist swine” corporations hire you, they ask if you are related to directly or indirectly to any existing employees. If so, you've got a problem and probably won't be hired. However, the “people's Republik of Massachusetts makes no such distinction in its hiring practices. One need only examine the State's payrolls to see the incredible degree of “nepotism” that exists here…. to see the nephew , neice, uncle , brother in law that have been comfortably seated at the State “trough”… . and of course, seated at the head of the trough is typically some former State rep or Senator that has, after a Nationwide search, landed that high 6 figure State job….. the corruption defies belief.
bannedbythesentinel says
I have worked in the private sector my entire life, and I have seen many many instances of relatives working together.
In fact, I have seen instances of relatives who pull paychecks but do not show up to do any actual work. Even at “sizable” companies.
I guess “illegal” nepotism is rampant in the private sector.
What is the law concerning nepotism again?
toms-opinion says
Somehow , I have a problem believing that people who don't show up don't last long at GM, Dupont, GE etc., etc. the dreaded corporate sector that you abhor……. Maybe at “uncle al's antique shop” nepotism can survive where the sister in law couldn't make it to work that day but certainly NOT in the “real world”. And , of course, always remember that in the private sector, you can do what you damn well please…hey if you want to give “aunt ethel” a no show job, that's your perogative…. giving “aunt ethel” a no show public sector job is a whole different ball game since ME and the other poor SOBs that pay taxes are paying “aunt ethels” salary, perks and ridiculous benefits.
bannedbythesentinel says
I do not abhor the private sector. As I have said, I have been working in it my whole life.
Your logic seems to imply that cops must LOVE criminals, alligator wrestlers must LOVE alligators, and soldiers must LOVE war.
You can believe what you want, but if you are unwilling to believe that nepotism not only exists but thrives in the private sector I'll just let you stay in your comfort zone and not stress your mind further on the topic.
But I want to thank you for making my point for me. In the private sector, you can do whatever you damn well please. That means if you want to treat 99% of your employees like lizard turd while awarding exhorbatant salaries and perks to only the lucky few, that is exactly what happens. (been to a Wal-Mart lately?)
So we should make the pike like a big long wal-mart?
gary says
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Low, low tolls for quality products. Sign me up.
bannedbythesentinel says
when they have to recall the entire pike?
toms-opinion says
where these corporate inequities won't be a problem for you commrade?
hrs-kevin says
bannedbythesentinel says
that is whining further down the thread about “condescending remarks and personal insults”?
When organized labor is strong, we all do well. That is an American tradition, and there is nothing communist about it.
I'm not surprised to hear that “love it or leave it” garbage though…
raj says
…the private sector nepotism rule that you mention is far more limited than you suggest. Particularly at large companies with many sections, divisions, whatever you want to call them. The rule is obviously intended to discourage favoritism, but if a relative is applying for a job that is far removed from the current employee’s division, it is difficult to see how favoritism could be exerted.
toms-opinion says
Wasn't it just six months ago that the issue was whether or not to make the Pike toll free from Weston to Sturbridge and tear down the tollboths and eliminate “politically bestowed ” toll taker jobs ? …and now it's flipped to an outrageous toll increase on the horizon and a brand new toll booth at the “turnaround” complete with a staff $65k/yr toll takers plus ridiculous benefits? No wonder people are fleeing the State
The 128 mile long mass Pike has been and continues to be one of the most outrageously expensive “public” roadways in America ( if not the planet). So the question becomes ..Can the big bad “boogie man Corporation” make it any worse?
There are many folks that would gulp and stomach the one zillionth toll increase if only one of the “hack” nephews or brother in laws would say “Thank you” when you stuff $2 bucks in their fist instead of grunting and stuffing one of the two dollars in their pocket. The mass pike is totally out of control
stomv says
is not even close, based on my very recent experiences in China and Thailand.
BTW — if you have that much experience with grunts over “thank yous”, why not just get an EZPass/FastLane?
toms-opinion says
through the “fast lane” while a $95 /hr nearby State Trooper is sipping his coffee and reading the paper in his cruiser..and does NOTHING about it .how many times have you seen that one?
Who gives a s**t about China??? How is that relevant?
bannedbythesentinel says
Because you seem like a generous tipper.
😉
stomv says
and you mentioned
So… you [implicitly] brought it up with your throwaway factless line.
toms-opinion says
dcsohl says
how many times have you seen that one?
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Never. In fact, I’ve been in a car that got pulled over for going 36mph through the Fast Lane — a $210 speeding ticket.
toms-opinion says
And you consider that not speeding? You're exactly thr trust funded Yuppie i'm describing.
Shoulda been a $400 fine
dcsohl says
You need reading comprehension lessons. You show that time and again, but this is a particularly stellar example.
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I never said I didn’t consider it speeding. In fact, at the time, I was urging the driver to slow down, as I thought we were going a little fast.
toms-opinion says
please stay within the posting rules for civility here..thanks
dcsohl says
Condescending? You bet. When I have to take it, I have no problem in giving it right back.
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Personal insults? No, I made an observation of fact. You seem to have a hard time reading what people actually write, preferring instead to read your reality into it. For example, you assumed that I thought 36 in a 15 was just fine, and not speeding at all. Furthermore, you assumed I was driving, and that I’m a “trust fund yuppie”. (See the condescension in your remarks?)
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A personal insult would be if I called you a moron. But I never did that, so your complaint on this is baseless.
raj says
…isn’t there a “speed limit” for going through the fast lane toll booths? If so, it should be enforced, particularly as, as has been noted, being rear-ended can be quite ennerving–to put it mildly.
dcsohl says
You are entirely correct.
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Which was my original point — he’d (hyperbolically) stated that people went through them at 85mph while Staties were sitting around drinking coffee. My whole point, initially, was that the only time I’d ever gone through them faster than 30mph, we got pulled over. For speeding. 36 in a 15 (the Fast Lane is rated at 15mph).
centralmassdad says
Last time I crossed the Verrazano Bridge between Brookyn and Staten Island, the toll was $8 (only collected leaving Brooklyn). The tunnels are $4.50 one way. So to travel through the city on the way south, you can easily run up $20 of tolls in about 20 miles.
toms-opinion says
Incredibly outrageous NY tolls make the ripoff here “rational”?
bostonshepherd says
“Enron” and “unscrupulous” and “corruption and fraud” are knee-jerk, progressive mantras. Snap out of it! Think clearly!
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Why not start with a clean sheet of paper and compare current MTA finances with a lease deal? I applaud the Patrick administration for thinking outside the box.
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The MTA and MBTA are notoriously inefficient. Actually, they’re the butt of many jokes. I’ll wager the state could receive in lease payments, and perhaps an upfront payment too, substantially more than what the Pike is providing now if it were to capitalize it’s current cash flow under current MTA management.
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Why would the Commonwealth simply hand over the Pike’s revenue stream to a private company if they thought they couldn’t better their position? I don’t think they would.
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A private company will probably return lease payments to the state greater than current net revenue flow, maintain the asset better, provide better service, operate more efficiently, provide a return on their capital AND show a profit.
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They state also benefits because a private company can unlock millions of dollars in annual depreciation and amortization tax benefits. This alone is often sufficient economic motivation for a non-profit organization to sell then lease back their assets; I believe Middlebury College did this with many of their buildings 20 years ago.
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So it’s not a zero sum game. A private organization will likely improve the picture for everyone.
bannedbythesentinel says
TAXES! heh! TAXES! TAXES, TERROR, and …um..gays too! Gay terrorist tax hikes want to take your guns! heh!
(Sorry, just had to get that out)
🙂
Why not start with a clean sheet of paper and compare current MTA finances with a lease deal?
Why not start with bringing the MTA back under the jurisdiction of the Governor's office as David suggested? Why must there be a dichotomy between the current situation and privitization?
see David's thread here: http://www.bluemassg…
What do jokes have to do with effeciency? What does your propensity for gambling have to do with effeciency?
A private company will PROBABLY take out billions in loans and then file chapter 11 and implode. Blind conjecture is fun, but anyone can do it.
Who pays for tax breaks? If a private corporation can turn a profit only by exploiting tax breaks it is ultimately us who pay. Is that a better deal? Why don't you just come right out and suggest that the cost of pike operations be funded by income taxes?
Are we thinking more clearly now?
dcsohl says
For the state to lease the Pike to a private corporation to actually happen, two things have got to be true.
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1) The state’s gotta get more money from the deal than they are currently getting from the Pike.
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2) The corporation’s gotta be able to turn a profit.
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There’s a couple of ways both these things can happen. The corporation could improve efficiency, or they could raise tolls, or, as you point out (an excellent point) they could receive tax benefits for depreciation, etc.
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Increased efficiency is a loss for the Pike employees. Some of whom, no doubt, deserve to be “efficiented”, but others certainly do not, but will anyway.
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Increased tolls is a loss for us, the people, obviously.
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Tax benefits is a loss to the government. Probably mostly the Federal government, so the State will probably still come out ahead, but we can’t pretend that these amortization and depreciation credits are coming out of thin air.
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It is a zero-sum game. Who do you want to pay?
mcrd says
marcus-graly says
The Chicago Skyway is a short road (less than 8 miles) going South of Chicago along the lake connecting to I-90 in Indiana. It goes very high in the air over the Calumet river and some heavy industry down there, and proved very expensive to maintain. Alternate routes exists, (taking the Dan Ryan South to the I-94,) so if the private company charges too much or fails to maintain it properly, people can always take the public freeway. The Mass Pike on the other hand, is a vital transportation corridor for the much of the state. If it fell in to disrepair or became too expensive to use it would be bad for the entire regoin's economy. And since, unlike in Chicago, there are few good alternatives, there's no incentive for the private company not to charge as much as it can get away with and do as little road work as it can get away with. Privatization of the Pike would be a disaster. The solution is to treat the Pike like any other highway and make up for the lost revenue with gasoline taxes.
bostonshepherd says
but let's wait to see what the financial deal looks like.
The service plazas on the Pike are monopolistic, but I don't hear complaints about bad service at them or price gouging at the pump. Why is that? Because the leases to operate those plazas are re-bid every could of years. The same protections can be negotiated for operation of the Pike.
I note in the Chicago Skyway deal the tolls are known well in advance. I think even if tolls are kept the same, a private operator could still:
Besides, I already pay gasoline taxes. Why then do I pay tolls, too?
stomv says
The gas tax is insufficient to cover the total cost of the roads. Raise the gas tax sufficiently [about six cents IIRC] and you could eliminate all tolls in MA — or you require those who don't drive, a fairly large population in metro areas, to subsidize drivers. This is obviously a bass-ackward policy, since driving has all kinds of detrimental externalities and therefore should be taxed, not subsidized, should society be interested in reaching an optimal equilibrium.
raj says
The gas tax is insufficient to cover the total cost of the roads.
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Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t, but I’m going to cut to the chase. The gas tax has been diverted to the general revenue at both the federal and the state level. If it were to be returned to its original purpose–a user fee for construction and maintenance of the roadways–maybe the total amount would be sufficient to pay for construction and maintenance of the roadways.
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Moreover, heavy vehicles–trucks, vans and SUVs should be taxed at a much higher rate than passenger vehicles, since they do much more damage to the roadways. Our Toyota Camrys do little damage to the roadways, whereas Wholefoods’ huge trucks (ship the product to their Wellesley Hills store) most certainly do.
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stomv says
What did MA spend on transportation last year? What was the gas tax revenue?
What did tUSA spend on transportation last year? What was the gas tax revenue?
You made the claim — back it up!
raj says
The diversion of the gas tax revenues to the federal and state general funds? Of course not. Those were in articles that I read in the WSJ and the Globe in the early to mid 1980s, long before there was a Web.
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The excuse for the feds is that under Reagan they shuttled off the gas tax monies (as they did with the airport tax monies) to make the federal deficit look smaller than it would have been otherwise. Take in the monies, but don’t spend it for its originally-intended use, and voila! lower annual deficit.
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The excuse for MA was that they where shuttling off gas tax monies to help support the MBTA. Their reason? That reducing the operating deficit of the T, they could lower the fares, thereby encouraging more people to use the T and fewer to use the roadways. It was horse manure of course, but that was their explanation. And the stupidity of their explanation is why I remember it.
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Same with the Reagan malAdministration, by the way.
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One thing that you really should remember is that not everything is available over the Internet.
mcrd says
Go directly to operational expenses. I've also been led to believe that toll takers make 40-50K. To make change?
I have an inkling that all the salaries on the Pike are inflated due to the fact that it is a partonage plum and hideout for politico's families.
Am I in error? Personally I don't think that it would be a good idea to privatize the pike. I also believe that they need a pay freeze on the pike for at least five years to adjust the salaries to something realistic. it's not like anyone can get a job out there.
bannedbythesentinel says
CEOs need a pay freeze for about 500 years to adjust the salaries to something realistic. it's not like anyone can get a job up there.
😛
toms-opinion says
the mass pike top guy gets paid….hell, why not get a job as cop on the Pike 'nipple”
[salary here http://www.tollroads… ] wow! i'd love a sweet job on the Pike instead of a shitty $38k , 65 hour a week private sector gig.
toms-opinion says
including great health care, 3 weeks vacation plus 12 holidays and an incredible retirement package.
My problem is that I'm not related to any politicians nor do I know any politicians and I'm not a minority or female.. I'm just an old white male, politically incorrect dinosaur with no connections …can some one out there help me get this great Mass Pike job?
bannedbythesentinel says
fort-orange says
… growing up white male in American society.
And, standing/sitting in a toll booth for 8 hours a day sucking in car fumes? Not exactly the most intellectually stimulating or healthy job. No thanks.
nopolitician says
I’ll agree that toll takers appear to be significantly overpaid. Public jobs should have salaries so that the best qualified employees are employed, no more, no less. I think that when you have a position that is so desirable that it takes a relationship with an elected official to land it, that signifies a problem with the pay scale.
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Unfortunately this is leading the public opinion as to whether the roads should be privatized (they should not, in my opinion, since this will result in a transfer of a vital asset built with public funds into the hands of a private corporation whose #1 obligation is to the shareholders, not the public).
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In fact, I don’t think you can even call these jobs “patronage” jobs. “Patronage” describes a system where a job is given out as a reward for political support. These jobs should be called “legislative perquisite” jobs, since the most common situation seems to be that they go to friends relatives of elected officials. It seems to be unrelated to political support or activity.
stomv says
are these claims just with respect to the white collar management jobs, or also to the toll takers, snowplow men, FastLane maintainance guys, sign makers, etc?
After all, the vast majority of the Pike jobs do not involve wearing a necktie.
melanie says
Boy, I was one of Deval's biggest supporters and I am starting to wonder why the hell I voted for the guy. One of the only things government is actually supposed to do is maintain infrastructure. Abdicating responsibility of our roads is just an awful idea. Why is it politicans are never willing to do the hard things? If we are paying toll workers too much, reduce pay to toll workers. If we need to raise prices to maintain our roads, raise prices. This is just disappointing.
bostonshepherd says
but it’s not Deval’s fault. It’s 50 years of semi-autonomous, self-funding authorities like the MTA and the MBTA running amok without any accountability. I also include the Steamship Authority in this pack of thieves.
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They were granted monopolistic authority and the ability to tax (i.e., charge fees, collect fares, and impose tolls.)
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I fault our Democratic controlled legislature for perpetuating this uncontrollable structure.
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It’s not within the governor’s power to absorb these authorities into a larger state system. Romney tried with the MTA, look what happened. Nothing.
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Indeed, the MTA was given the added responsibility to build the Big Dig, and look what a crackerjack job they did.
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All those MTA, MBTA, and Massport pensions are accumulating and accruing (not to mention retiree health costs) without regard for cost. Is it any wonder none of them can maintain anything they control? Why, there’s not enough money! What a surprise.
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Not in my lifetime will any of these authorities be reformed let alone folded in to the state structure, or even less likely, phased out.