John Keller just reported that Jim Ogonowski is within 10 points of Niki Tsongas. Ogonowski leads in key categories as well. I'll have more analysis once crosstabs are posted at the Survey USA site.
The game is most definately on. No free ride for Ms. Tsongas.
Update: Poll Results
Surprising Strength for Republican Ogonowski in MA5 Special Congressional Election Against Tsongas: In an election for U.S. House of Representatives in Massachusetts 5th
Congressional District today, 34 days to the 10/16/07 special election, Democrat Niki Tsongas is elected 51% to 41% to fill the seat vacated by Democrat Marty Meehan, who resigned 07/01/07 to
become Chancellor of the University of Massachusetts Lowell, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston. Though just 18% of likely voters in SurveyUSA's turnout
model are self-identified Republicans, Republican Jim Ogonowski gets 41% of the vote, leading Tsongas among Independents, who make-up 40% of likely voters. The contrasts are stark.
Among them: Tsongas leads by 32 points among women. Ogonowski leads by 13 points among men, a 45-point Gender Gap. Tsongas leads by 23 points among the youngest voters. Ogonowski
leads by 2 points among the oldest voters. Tsongas leads 9:2 among Democrats, who make-up 42% of likely voters. Ogonowski leads 8:1 among Republicans, who make-up 18% of likely voters.
Ogonowski leads by 7 among Independents. Tsongas leads 8:1 among Liberals, who make-up 25% of likely voters. Ogonowski leads 4:1 among Conservatives, who make-up 19% of likely voters.
Tsongas and Ogonowski split among Moderates, who make-up 38% of likely voters.
if you compare the numbers you present today to the numbers you stood firmly by last week. How do you explain his precipitous fall from 21 points ahead to 10 points behind?
Those numbers, I said they were an internet poll but did show a snapshot of where the electorate was headed. If all you got is neener neener your internet poll wasn't right, great. There is tremendous momentum behind Ogonowski. I still firmly believe at 10 pm on 10/16 he will be declared the winner.
you liked that poll because it gave the perception (your word) that ogonowski had a commanding lead over tsongas. now the perception is that he failed miserably to hold a commanding lead. this isn’t neener neener, this is pointing out that highlighting straw polls may be foolish and can backfire.
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where do you think ogonowski will gain the votes to superscede tsongas’s 10 point lead? the margin of error is, what, only 4% or so? do you think he can peel them off of her voter base, or is it purely a gotv game?
Let me remind you what I said. Emphasis added:
The Lowell Sun question of the day is a very popular section of the paper and this showing paints a picture of a campaign on a roll. You and I may know it's just an internet poll but it helps in creating perception.
We'll all see where the two candidates stand probably on Sunday night or Monday night. When I expect the next SurveyUSA fast track poll to come out. SurveyUSA does a three night sample. I would expect tonight to be night two in that sample with tomorrow night being three.
People seeing this quickly in the Sun might sway their answers to that poll. keep thinking this is a cake walk. Please do.
I always said wait for this poll. The Margin of error is 4%.
It is a GOTV game and the poll under sampled unenrolleds by 11% based on actual registration numbers in the district.
Ogonowski wins this race by 2 points.
The internet poll post was here before, now it's gone? Did you delete the post or am I mistaken and it was a comment on another post.
Comment was on BMG.
my mistake, thanks.
…An Internet poll? Those are notoriously unreliable. They aren’t even useful for a convenience sample.
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The election will be decided, as always, by the political machines’ ability to get their respective votes out.
An internet poll Raj. The last poll was an internet poll. This is a scientific poll conducted by a respected polling outfit.
…learn to disambiguate among the various polls. Which was an Internet poll, the one that showed Oloxxx ahead of Tsangas, or the one that showed him behind?
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BTW, your blockquote was a mess. Learn how to punctuate.
…that eabo’s posting and comments here are often contain incomplete thoughts and ambiguous statements. It’d be helpful to many of us if eabo took time to add clauses and phrases that defined terms and reduced ambiguity.
hers, so far as i can tell, is that “this is a referendum on bush” — and bush is bad.
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what’s his?
Congress is Broken, Illegal Immigration needs to be stopped, No Amnesty, the Tax code is too burdensome and needs to be simplified.
This election is not a referendum on Bush. It is to serve the people of the 5th District.
To that end I give you this WBZ Survey USA poll. Even the people of Massachusetts give a 60% to the War in Iraq has produced Mixed results. In Massachusetts. If the war is Niki's only issue she is going to get trounced.
So where does he stand on issues, normally a candidate posts his/her issues list and plan, I don't see that anywhere on his webpage. Just that commercial which regurgitated the talking points you posted above. At this point he stands for nothing, all his web site provides voters is where to contribute money.
You will find his stances on issues.
Look on His Blog you will find stances on issues.
Read his plan for the war on terror you will find stances on issues.
Just because there is not an “issues” button doesn't mean you can't find them.
For these “issues”, that have haven't posted here. Your post on what he stands for is a repeat of the video on his website, you can't even name them. Maybe you should go through the press clippings and figure it out. Then see if you can get anything about how he plans to resolve them.
an “issues” button might actually be a good idea, no?
not an appealing message to me, as a centrist. maybe to other swing voters. for someone positioning himself as a “regular guy,” i find it just as “poll-generated” as niki’s “bush = bad” message.
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EVERY election has at least 1 candidate who is making the “outsider” pitch.
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so when the rhetoric is “i’m not business-as-usual,” it rings not just as hollow but as the opposite, that this guy is PRECISELY business as usual. particularly when (like on his website), the outsider language is combined with insider, business as usual production values and look.
we will see then whether ogonowski has any insight into any issues beyond the republican base model mantra.
Tsongas: Bush bad, Republicans Bad.
Ogonowski: Immigrants bad, Democrats weak.
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Can we vote now?
Niki Tsongas’s Issues Page with detailed position statements on:
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Jim Ogonowski’s issues page (sorry, nothing to link to).
… only find his document on his plan for Iraq. I couldn't even find things easily on his blog.
There are tons of press releases which you can find out about his issues. They are located here.
… I didn't expect to have to wade through press releases to see what he was about. Most candidates have a 'positions' or 'issues' page. You should suggest something like that to him.
to have him detail how he's also going to address each issue. This is for real, real people, real issues, real answers. We need to know his.
all there is to know on this guy. he apparently believes that it is enough that we know that he had a military career and that his brother was murdered. therefore he deserves this job. a sort of patriot’s affirmative action.
how do you explain his lack of concern for making his stand on the issues clear?
… bad web design, or at least bad communication management. A cynic might say it is successful communication management by obfuscation.
If it is a given that it should be easier to get this information then which of the situations above is the case is really a matter of what the campaign's intention is with regard to such information that will let you know.
Not being a mind reader, I'll refrain from concluding one way or another. Of course the campaign's action in the next few days to correct the issue would allay any cynicism.
if he wants people to vote for him, he needs to do some work to invite those votes. perhaps he feels entitled to win.
From talking to Jim he has personally knocked on thousands of doors. He is asking questions and listening to peoples responses.
How many doors has Niki personally knocked on? My guess less than a hundred. She's waging an air war whild Jim's waging a ground campaign.
You know what's really interesting? Niki had 80 people show up to a Saturday Unity Rally according to the Lowell Sun. The next day Jim Ogonowski had 1279 people join him on a tele-town hall meeting, according to that same paper.
It's nice to see you all got your Bloggers memo from the Niki Tsongas campaign today. “Hit Jim for not having an issues page”.
Niki is going down on Oct, 16 and the victory is going to be oh, oh so sweet.
we are all giving you constructive criticism (though pointed at times) for your favored candidate. that you can’t see that is your loss…and his.
Ogonowski had at his breakfast? That was noted at a few dozen. But what does that have to do with the fact that Ogonowski has not stated platform of issues that he wants to represent the district? Bueller? Anyone?
What is this? A fantasy football trash talk page?
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“On election day, Jim’s gonna rip off Niki’s head and crap down her neck! Then I’m going to piss on Paul’s dead corpse. Suck it, BMG bitches.”
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I am amused by the attitude swings from eabo: one minute we all must have a reverent respect for every person who has served in uniform, especially Jim Ogonowski, the next minute the campaign is reduced to an Adam Sandler-esque “O’Doyle rules!” taunt.
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And then BMG gets chastised for getting Nikki Tsongas talking points from a guy who sits down to Au Bon Pain coffee (Not Dunkies? Quelle horruer!) with Candidate Jim.
A sandal-wearing, sushi-eating, au bon pain drinking, formerly Volvo-driving, community theater participating, knuckle-dragging, trash talking, arch conservative.