Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

The Continuing Republican Debacle

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So to recap, the GOP is having a lot of trouble with the House:

  1. It is having recruitment trouble. Example: GA-12 has a Republican advantage but is represented by a Democrat, John Barrow. The GOP has not found a challenger yet. NC-11 isn’t looking good for them either.
  2. Scandals continue to pile up. Example: Rep. Lewis.
  3. Generic polls are turning bluer. Democrats had a 10 point advantage in generic polls in April; that grew to 18 points by September.
  4. There has been a wave of Republican retirements from the House. It’s less fun being in the minority. Hastert has discovered it’s less fun not being Speaker. This week saw two retirements: Weller and Ramstad.
  5. They have a tenth as much money.
  6. They are beset with infighting.
  7. Finally, a lot of ink has been wasted saying that there’s record disapproval of the House. Recent polling shows that independents (not just Democrats) want Congress to stand up even more on the Iraq war. In other words, the problem with the Congress even for independents is that it is not Democratic enough.
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Comments

  1. John Warner and Chuck Hagel in the Senate (though, now Bob Kerrey’s saying he may not run for the seat), Jim Ramstad (who represents a swing district in MN), Jerry Weller (another swinger in IL), Deborah Pryce, RayLaHoodDuncanHuntermaybeChrisShays….

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    And on and on.  Some of these folks see the writing on the wall…

    • Keep in mind that the Democrats enter with a funding advantage and that the Iraq occupation is much less popular according to polling than conventional wisdom would indicate.

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      Alaska: It is becoming clearer and clearer that Senator Stevens accepted bribes. Good-bye, Senator Stevens.

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      Colorado: Open seat and Democrats are doing better and better in this state.

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      Kentucky: Polling shows McConnell remarkably vulnerable. The Iraq occupation does not play well there.

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      Louisiana: Senator Landrieu might lose. This looks like the most vulnerable Democratic seat.

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      Maine: This is the Democrats’ best shot at Collins yet. Unfortunately, her approval rating remains stellar.

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      Minnesota: Senator Coleman is likely to lose.

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      Nebraska: Hagel will retire. Kerrey could win it but another Liebercrat could be more harm than good.

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      New Hampshire: Good-bye Senator Sununu.

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      New Mexico: Senator Domenici, aside from being seen wondering about in pajamas, is tied up in the U.S. Attorney’s scandal.

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      Oklahoma: It’s unlikely that a Democrat could win this seat, but Senator Inhofe’s approval stays below 50%. A bad sign for an incumbent.

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      Oregon: This is likely to be competitive.

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      South Dakota: SurveyUSA reports the ailing Senator Johnson (D) as the most popular Senator in the country.

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      Virginia: With Senator Warner’s retirement, this looks as if it will be a Democratic pickup.

      • If Stevens leaves the Senate, which I think is probable, it’s tough to see a Democratic replacement.  Granted, Mayor Blagich of Anchorage is well-liked, but that’s quite a party difference to overcome.  I think Collins is more in danger,  and McConnell less so.  Outside of that, I’d agree with all that you said.

        • The problem the GOP has with Alaska and Idaho is the need to spend resources defending seats that would otherwise be completely safe. Even a little bit of danger for McConnell can also be extremely expensive because defending him can tie up a disproportionate amount of money. He’s their leader.

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          Their problems in Alaska are compounded by the fact that their single representative to the House and their junior  senator are also facing corruption investigations.

          • They don’t have much money, and lots of places where they have to spend it.  Do you think they’d want to keep McConnell on?  He hasn’t exactly been blowing the place up with his skill set.

          • I just knows what I reads :

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            Washington Post: “Begich, a popular mayor who won his second three-year term a year ago…”

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            NCEC: “Many are still courting popular Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich…”

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            KTUU  Anchorage:

            On Friday, June 22, Channel 2 News conducted an online poll asking if viewers thought Mayor Mark Begich should run for Rep. Don Young’s seat in the U.S. Congress

            55.6 percent of the respondents voted in favor of Begich running. Here are the official question and results.

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            Mind you, that is for the House, not the Senate.  But considering both are corrupt as heck, I don’t see a big difference.

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