Again, Tsongas won 54,300 to 47,700, or by 6,700 votes.
The two big old cities, Lowell and Lawrence together went 11,300 – 7,000 for Tsongas, 61%
Andover and Haverhill are on the eastern edge of the district. They were each a toss-up; each candidate won one by about 100 votes. Together, they went 6,700 – 6,600 for Tsongas, 50%.
The central core of the district is the towns of Methuen, Dracut, Tewksbury, Chelmsford, Dracut, Tyngsboro, and Dunstable. They form a donut as these towns are contiguous around Lowell. Tsongas lost all 8 towns with 33% to 46% of the vote, in total 15,000 – 19,800 for 43%.
The southern part of the district has ten towns generally inside of I-495: Wayland, Sudbury, Concord, Carlisle, Acton, Maynard, Stow, Hudson, Boxborough, and Harvard. Tsongas won all ten easily with 59% to 69% of the vote, in total 15,000 – 8,200, for 64%.
The western part of the district is Berlin, Bolton, Lancaster, Shirley, Ayer, Groton, Littleton, and Westford. Tsongas got from 47% to 55% in these towns, winning five of them, in total 6,200 – 5,900, for 51%.
What is most remarkable about these latter three groups is that they are geographically contiguous and psephologically contiguous. The ten southern towns all gave Tsongas a higher percentage than the 8 western towns, which in turn all gave her a higher percentage than the 8 central towns.
So we really can talk about distinct areas in the district.
The other thing these numbers tell us is that the central conservative area and the cities tend to cancel out. If anyone wanted to change the competitive balance of this district, it would be by tinkering with the southern part, either by moving towns out of the district or restoring towns like Lincoln, Bedford and Lexington that used to be part of the district and would tend to vote in the same way.
Littleton wins the prize for mirroring the district the closest, with 52.7% for Tsongas vs. 53.2% for the whole district.
In looking at the results, and in my commutes through lots of the towns of MA-05, I was struck by the economic divide between Reps and Dems. The district splits into urban, suburban, and smaller town. Tsongas carried the urban areas, although I was struck by the small margin in Lowell-I would have thought she would have done better there. Once you get outside the urban areas, there seems to me to be a economic class division between Reps and Dems in this election. It seems to me that the wealthier the town, the better Tsongas did. I had this sense from the war of the lawn signs across the district-there seemed to be a direct correlation between the wealth of the neighborhood and the prevalance of signs for each candidate.
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The GOP edge in MA 05 is the populist edge. Ogo really appealed to the people who are struggling economically in the suburbs, who feel that Washington has abandoned them, and that their livelihoods are at risk from a host of evils, including the risk that non-Americans will take their jobs via immigration or outsourcing. They are angry, they are threatened, they are fearful,and I give Ogo a lot of credit for being a candidate who really spoke for them.
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This special election needs to be a big wake-up call for the Dems in Mass. How do we effectively reach the people who are feeling marginalized by the economy, by social changes, and by their governments? I know the actual policies of Democrats actually help the working and middle class more than the policies of the GOP. But we are terrible at convincing them that health care, good public education, and responsible fiscal policies will help them more than the “you’re on your own-ership” society.
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The GOP should take from this election the power of the populist message. Where are our populist progressives?
“where are our populist progressives?”
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progressive bricklayer from working-class neighborhood in lowell
that an independent who is not independently wealthy and willing to spend a lot of money cannot win. As I’ve said before, I like a lot of what Patrick had to say. He should take a hard look at his political future and decide whether he wants to run as a Democrat next time.
…who had smarts, an awesome fundraising ability and absolutely no support from the State Dems because she did not fit their play book. Patrick should stick right where he is and build upon that. Come on if Niki had lost you all would be blaming Patrick Murphy for the loss.