When you read this on Daily Kos, you should perhaps worry about the acumen of one of the left’s most widely-read figures.
Dems win special election. Votes are still being counted, but it’s been called by local media and the final tally is expected to be around 53-47 [the actual final was 51-45 -ed.].
Yeay [sic] us, except that this is a district that Kerry won 57-41 in 2004 meaning Tsongas underperformed her party (a 10-point swing toward the GOP).
Good grief. First, 2004 was a presidential election, whereas this was an off-year special; turnout was a tad higher in 04. Second, 2004 featured a local well-known figure (John Kerry) against an out-of-state well-known figure (George W. Bush). I’d think that the “local guy” vote is worth at least the swing that kos talks about.
Third, as democraticavenger has helpfully and painstakingly shown, Tsongas did as well or better than Deval Patrick in almost every city and town in the district — the major exception being Dracut, Ogo’s hometown. Deval won the district 51-40, with Mihos at 7% — give some of those Mihos voters to the Republican, and you get the spitting image of what happened last night. Yet most here would agree that Deval Patrick ran an outstanding, grassroots, “people-powered” campaign — exactly what kos & co. wishes every candidate would run.
None of which is to say that there aren’t important lessons to be learned from this election. Ryan’s posted some interesting thoughts; others no doubt will too over the next few days. But just looking at how Kerry did in 04 doesn’t tell us very much.
Congressional races involve lots of local flava; kos can tap into that culture in only a few of the 435. As a special election, it was obviously even more complex.
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Methinks Dems nationwide take our 10+2 Congresscritters out of a possible 12 for granted — I saw very little buzz outside of Mass blogs about the race, and I think it’s indicative of that assumption that MA Dems will always get the job done with no help needed. I mean, the SCHIP override vote alone should have drawn attention since Tsongas will be another veto-overriding vote and Ogo would have voted to sustain the veto.
by the GOP. The 5th, as we’ve seen. The 10th, is perhaps even more Republican, comprising of the South Shore, Cape and Islands. The 6th, 2nd, and 3rd, (Essex County, Springfield and East to Uxbridge, and Worcester/Attleboro, respectively) are also could be potential competitive.
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They’re all gerrymandered though, to place them just out of reach, under normal circumstances, pairing liberal regions with conservative ones. (It’s no accident that Concord and Lawrence are just inside the 5th, while Fitchburg and Leominster are just outside of it.) However, in the right political climate under could potential swing the other way.
… time cultivating angry voters and angry voters are more motivated to show up. Question: Did Ogo’s campaign (probably with some help by Niki’s Campaign) successfully diffuse Niki’s ability to cultivate angry voters on account of the war?
And there are a lot of angry voters, sometimes even forgetting what we are angry about. At the local level it is easier to incite the anger, or latent prejudices, for local issues, and not so much for the war, unless the pain of war were flowed down to the masses more obviously than it has been.
Is the role talk radio played in this election. I am not an expert of the reach or effectiveness of radio as a medium or specifically in the 5th, but it's difficult to deny the potential influence of the one-sided message streaming from WingNut radio day after day. Talk radio hosts were stumping for Ogo, stoking the xenophobic fires for his rovian campaign issue, and pushing GOTV on election day.
There was no countervailing influence to speak of from that medium (radio). No balance to confront that effort.
This is a persistent problem.
That’s a constant, not a variable. In every election every year in every distict in the US, the right wing radio machine has the impact it has.
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So in the context of this discussion–did Tsongas underperform as a Dem–I don’t think it’s much of an issue. Does it impact the process? Absolutely. But I don’t think there’s anything to look at there in terms of trends or how Tsongas did or didn’t live up to expectations.
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You could even say that it has less influence here because it is countered by most of the print press having endorsed Tsongas. Couldn’t you? That’s something that might vary more from election to election. And in this case, I can’t imagine it’s anything but a negative for Tsongas. How many candidates get that many paper endorsements and win by that little?
And note that if there was one theme of the Ogo campaign’s last-minute mailings it was: call talk radio. They played that card for everything they had:
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Bob,
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Today is the day – Go Vote NOW!
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Click Here to Find Your Polling Place
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Call Talk Radio And Reach Out To Voters By Calling:
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WRKO Boston AM680 : 617-779-3400
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WTKK Boston FM96.9: 617-822-1969
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WBZ Boston AM1030: 617-254-1030
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WCRN Worcester AM830: 508-792-0124
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WCAP Lowell AM980: 978-454-0404
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WCCM Lawrence AM1490: 978-683-7171
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WAAF Boston FM107.3: 617-931-1223
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WROR Boston FM105.7: 617-822-6459
… to motivate angry voters than bloviate on talk radio?
(at the very LEAST) rejects the nature and slant of the howling that is excreted by the RW screamers, and yet the excuse is still used with a straight face that there's no market (???) for alternative opinions?
Even Tom Finneran sounds like a WingNut. Market? There is no market. (unless you consider the sale of only a single product a market) It's like a convenience store that sells only 1 product. Moxie soda: with a manager that claims that no other soft drink can compete in the market place of refreshing beverages. It must be true because Moxie sales made up 100% of the store's revenue last year.. If it wasn't the store would sell something other than just Moxie soda.
Am I the only one that remains suspicious of this state of affairs?
I still think she didn’t do nearly as well as she could have, but you’re right in that she wasn’t all that far off from Patrick in the district. Yet, unlike Patrick, voters know she’d have a say on things like Iraq, etc. – so there was potential for her to do better if she made those messages resonate.
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Thankfully, though, we’re likely to see the same thing happen to her that happened to Meehan: bitterly fought race followed by a bunch of easy victory laps every 2 years. The Republicans had their chance and blew it. Yay, incumency.
This seems to be a peculiar brand of liberal pathology to which Kos, in particular, is susceptible: where the perfect is made the enemy of the good. I’ve seen this time and time and time again and I’m getting rather sick of the laziness behind it. Gore wasn’t Nader. Kerry wasn’t Dean. Tsongas isn’t Kerry.
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Republicans and conservatives never admit when things are bad preferring instead to scare you with more terrible things just over the horizon. Dems, on the other hand, never admit when things are good if there is an ideal perceived to be better just over the horizon. Neither live here where I live but rather spend so much time in what could have been, or what might have been or what ought to be… It is what it is.
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In an election that is fairly high profile and in which a clear frontrunner exists who garnered all major endorsements and who had Bill Clinton, John Kerry, Deval Patrick and the outgoing congressman (proxy by wife) on board is one in which low voter turnout is an implicit endorsement of the frontrunner. It was a cakewalk. Take it and eat it. Don’t complain about the size of your slice. Eat it and enjoy.
And women still have a harder time getting elected in “liberal” Massachusetts than men, especially if they are running against a man. Generally, from what I have seen and heard, this is not the friendliest place for smart, accomplished women. The state is getting much better, but it still has a long way to go. And I am not necessarily talking about how men vote; I am talking about how some women vote. Although there are other reasons why it was not a landslide, I think the fact that Niki Tsongas is a woman and her opponent was a man was a factor.
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Just let me say, it feels so good to finally have a woman in the Massachusetts congressional delegation.
She did tremendously much better than any of the other women in our Congressional delegation. Ogo ran an extremely vigorous campaign with vituperative Republican ideologues brought in from across the continent to attack our home town hero, and the entire Fury Radio spectrum at red alert — not to mention his blogger Army of One: our own EaBo. The Republicans threw everything they had at Tsongas.
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Petr is right. This was a smashing victory. A Democratic woman won hands down in one of the most conservative districts in the state. Tsongas should be as aggressive as possible when she gets to Congress, and advance progressive positions if she wants to win again in the next election.
But I think I’m more optimistic. The fact that the two highest vote-earners in the 5th’s primary were the only two women in the race I think bodes well for women being elected in this state. Furthermore, had Kerry Healey been a good candidate who wasn’t hampered by Romney’s unpopularity, she could have very well given Deval Patrick a real run for his money. Finally, the fact that Governor Patrick won, as an African American in Massachusetts, is further evidence that the old ways aren’t reflective of where we are today. There’s still a ways to go, but the divides are will quickly be bridged.
Niki is smart, sincere and honest, and deserves the courtesy, at least, of someone on our own side (like congrat, Niki, welcome to the fight). Kos is full of those who give liberalism a bad name, I’m sorry to say.
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The Ogonowski campaign did a few things right, and this needs to be recognized. As the RNCC puts it, our congressional leadership (or lack thereof) is our biggest Achilles’ heel, as indicated by their lack of approval in the polls. Today, on schedule, Bush came out and trashed Congress. (Why are they so good at this? Why are we so miserable?)
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There’s never been an easier target than this regime in the White House. Their war is a crime. Their unconstitutional eavesdropping, and rendition of the innocent is now common knowledge. Their undermining the integrity of the DoJ is an abuse of power. They lie to the American people all the time. The Republican brand is criminal, and no democratic leaders are selling it.
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And we’re stuck with a speaker who spits on us: “they are advocates. We are leaders.” News flash Nancy: you’re not even close to being a leader, and the American people are telling you you’re miserable. Please take the hint, or get out of the way. You too Reid…von Starkowsky for the FEC? Are you kidding?
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Prepare for more grief, good people. We’re going to get our asses kicked in ’08 with this course. You heard it here first.
…On one of the Democratic-leaning blogs (I don’t recall exactly where–Chris Bowers? Whatever he’s calling his blog now) there was a suggestion that the Dems might be well advised to take the closeness of the Tsongas-Ogonowski race into consideration for the 2008 presidential race. It might not be as much of a “cakewalk” for Dems as they might want to believe.