A new ABC/WaPo poll (HT: Globe) has startlingly good news for the Clinton campaign, and is quite the downer for everyone else. Yes, it’s a national poll — it’s not NH/Iowa focused. Still, it’s big. Here’s most of what you need to know.
A huge jump for Hillary, where she for the first time cracks the 50% barrier; a big slip for Obama; Edwards pretty much flat in 3rd place. And this, on top of the news that Hillary is now outpacing Obama in fundraising.
On the GOP side, Giuliani continues to poll impressively; no one else is really close, including Mr. 12%.
Breakdowns and technical details on the poll are available here (pdf). One of the most interesting tidbits on the Democratic side is this:
Among leaned Democrats more concerned with:
New ideas/new direction
Now (July)
Clinton 45% (39)
Obama 31 (39)
If Obama is to have any chance, he has got to beat Clinton in that category. Yet he appears to have lost ground to her over the last couple of months. Why?
The Wall Street Journal had a long front page article on how the lack of fiscal conservatism and the excess of social conservatism in the Republican Party was losing it significant business support. It noted more than one captain of industry who had supported Bush in 2004 reluctantly and was now supporting Hillary Clinton.
the Obama campaign has been awfully cautious these past few months. Can anyone name an issue which Obama embraced before John Edwards?
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So far as I can tell, either Obama is running to place rather than win (As in he’s aiming for veep or for a later run.), or his top campaign people should have their cell phones confiscated and be exiled to the Isle of St. Helena until 2009 (or ideally permanently).
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Meanwhile, giving credit where credit is due, Hillary has been running a very good campaign, avoiding major mistakes and, with her “right flank” secure (thanks to the solid support of the corporate sleaze wing of the party), has been matching Obama vote-for-vote 95+% of the time, making it unclear to anyone by the most careful observer exactly what the functional difference is between the two.
I can’t blame Obama’s campaign people for this. The fact that they’ve gotten him this far is pretty impressive.
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But not as impressive as Hillary, who is running the most impressive presidential campaign in my memory.*
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*Which admittedly only stretches back to 1988.