MassINC's Robert David Sullivan has posted a number of maps showing why in spite of Marty Meehan's dominance, the 5th district is not reflexively liberal. In 2002, Romney absolutely cleaned up:
There's more at MassINC's blog. True, Patrick improved considerably on this showing in 2006, but it's an indication as to why we shouldn't be completely shocked that this race is closer than, say, 20 points.
I'm still anticipating that Tsongas will win by something like the 9-10 point lead the polls have shown, if not by more. And I think the fecklessness of Congressional Democrats has indeed made it more difficult for Tsongas to ride a bitterly anti-war wave into Congress.
I'm almost hoping that the national Dems take it as a wake-up call.
Please share widely!
In the 2006 gubernatorial race (another one with no incumbent), the final stats in the towns that make up MA-05 were:
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Patrick 50.7%
Healey 40.4%
Mihos 7.0%
Ross 1.9%
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Compare that to the recent WBZ poll, which had Tsongas at 51%, Ogonowski at 42% and the Independents combined with 6%. Despite all the bluster from the Republican camp about how it’s an unexpectedly close race, the numbers haven’t moved from the party lines of the last election. In fact, Ogonowski has his work cut out merely to prove he’s no more unlikable than Kerry Healey.
If the race opens up to 15-20 points, I think we can say that SCHIP buried Ogonowski — or rather, that he buried himself with SCHIP. The debates, the denials, Ogo’s refusals to take a stand, the number and tone of the newspaper endorsements … those were all after the last poll, IIRC.
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In any event, I don’t actually think she’s getting all that much help from the Congressional Dems on Iraq, which makes that issue less dominating for her.
http://www.youtube.c…
Tsongas is no more qualified than Ogonowski.
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The deciding factor is folks understanding that “Big Brother” will provide.