Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Poll results, real and otherwise

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First, the results of some real polls (check out this thread for more):

  • Congratulations to new Boston City Councillors John Connolly (who knocked off incumbent Felix Arroyo) and Mark Ciommo (who beat Greg Glennon in a race for an open seat).  All other incumbents were reelected.  Anyone know what happened to Arroyo?

  • Hearty congratulations to Lisa Wong, the new Mayor of Fitchburg.  An excellent progressive pickup in a part of the state not always known for its progressive politics.  Also, apparently Mayor Phelan of Quincy has been unseated by one Thomas Koch.  Anyone have intel on what means for the city?

  • There will be a recount  in Somerville in light of the 21 vote margin separating the 4th (in) and 5th (out) place finishers in the Alderman race.

  • Chicopee narrowly says that it wants a casino.

And now, results from a poll that doesn’t matter, and in fact IMHO (and I don’t mean to sound harsh, but …) makes Democracy For America look a bit silly.  DFA’s “2008 Pulse Poll” is done.  They collected over 150,000 votes.  The big winner:

Dennis Kucinich.

Oy.  Perhaps even more peculiar is that second place, by a wide margin, went to Al Gore, who as we all know is not running (yet).  In fact, the top five Democrats in the poll finished in roughly reverse order of their chance of actually winning either the primary or the presidency:

Kucinich: 32% (41,934)

Gore: 25% (38,242)

Edwards: 16% (24,078)

Obama: 14% (21,403)

Clinton: 4% (6,504)

I’m not sure this was such a great PR move on DFA’s part.  I like what they do on the local level.  This makes them look fringier than I think they actually are.

But there’s at least some entertainment value in the results.  Kucinich won in almost every state — but the winner in Florida was Al Gore.

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Comments

  1. Red Sox “elect”  to give Schilling a 1-year, $8 million deal next season.  More money if he stays trim:

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    He also can make an additional $2 million by meeting weight clauses – $333,333 for each time he passes one of six random monthly weigh-ins.

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    Crap, I’d be thin as a supermodel if I were paid $2 million to lose poundage.

  2.   Dammit, there are good candidates and not-so-good ones. The good ones are Kucinich, Richardson, and Gravel. They are willing to speak the truth and advocate what the American people need and want (see recent poll by the reputable Pew foundation). If they were given some mainline coverage, and if money were not so overwhelmingly important in elections, AND if they got an occasional good word from supposedly intelligent commentators like yourself, maybe they wouldn’t be so “fringey” If all you care about is the realpolitick, you aren’t any better than those Passive Republicans, excuse me Democrats, in Congress who don’t stand for anything.

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    Cordially,
    Tom from Troy.

    • …but our friend Tom is not one of them. I know this because it says so in my copy of “Who’s Who of Good People” (the same schollarly reference he used to identify the good Democratic candidates). I would not listen to a word he says until he provides acceptable Goodness credentials of his own.

    • Because I don’t consider Kucinich, Richardson (for whom I initially had high hopes), or Gravel (Gravel??) to be “good candidates.”  Your helpful comments about my intelligence are duly noted.

  3. He didn’t raise any money, didn’t send out any flyers (at least not in my neighborhood). There have been stories about how he has had a really spotty attendance at city council meetings the last couple of years. During the Roslindale Day parade, while all of the other candidates were working the street and shaking people’s hands, he just walked up the center of the street and waved.  I think that he wasn’t all that into being city councilor but didn’t want to simply not run.

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    I voted for him and Yoon two years ago, but given his apparent lack of interest, this time around I just put down Yoon.

    • I’ve heard similar comments over the past year from a number of other people, including people who were volunteering on or otherwise involved in the campaigns of some of the other candidates and who wanted to see Arroyo re-elected but weren’t sure he would be.

  4. Koch’s election could be called “Revenge of the Townies.”  The incumbant mayor was no doubt a well-connected life-long Quincy resident, but he was making steps in an almost progressive direction by taking out some corruption (including Koch’s cronies), reaching out to newer residents of Quincy, and bringing some talent to city hall from outside the city.  Koch’s election marks a strong preference for the older style of corrupt local politics. The losses of both Asian-American city council candidates are also telling. 

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    I can’t say there weren’t legitimate reasons people wanted to oust the incumbant as well. Phelan turned out looking pretty bad in the wake of last spring’s teacher strike and from a controversial plan to reshape downtown. 

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    A sign from one of Koch’s supporter’s on Hancock Street last night sums it up nicely:

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    “MAYOR PHELAN IS PRO GAY!!!  Man + Woman = Diversity  Man + Man = Discrimination”

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    PS: Note that neither Koch nor Phelan are pronounced the way you might like them to be – but it is definitely funnier that way. 

    • …who is secretary of state in Ohio?  The secretary of state will be the one controlling counting of the ballots in 2008, and that position is IIRC an elective position.

      • That got settled in the statewide election a year ago.  Ken Blackwell, as you recall, left the Secretary’s office to run for Governor and got trounced.  Democrat Jennifer Brunner was elected to replace him.  She’s sort of on the borderline of being the kind of Secretary that netroots/DFA people like, not as good as Debra Bowen or John Bonifaz on election reform matters, but on balance quite good.  So I think we’re in good shape for a reasonably fair election in Ohio in 2008.

        • …it’s been a long time since I left Ohio, but I still have family there.  Unfortunately, they are in the Keating-controlled southwestern part of the state, around Cincy.

  6. …Kucinich’s biggest problem is that he was mayor of Cleveland OH when it went insolvent.  Of course, that was with help of the Republican governor, James Rhodes, of Kent State fame.

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    Kucinich’s other problem is that he will be linked with the fire on the Cuyahoga River, which passes through Cleveland, even though the most recent one happened 8 years before he was elected mayor of Cleveland, and even though the Cuyahoga had caught fire many times before.

    • His biggest problem?  I don’t think so.

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      I agree that’s one of his problems, but I’m fairly confident most people considering the Democratic primary and not planning to vote for Kucinich are barely even aware (if at all) that he was ever mayor of Cleveland.

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      As far as his administration of Cleveland goes, my problem is that he did a bad job, even given the situation he was in.  He was right to oppose the sale of the municipal power utility, and it was probably because of that position that he got elected in the first place, but other than that, he seemed to do everything wrong.  Appointed inexperienced people.  Burnt bridges.  Pissed off potential allies.  Failed to do anything effective about the disastrous city budget.

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      Now, a lot of time has passed since then, and he’d probably do a much better job if given another chance.  I wouldn’t want that to be the presidency of the USA, though; I’d like his chance to show he can do a good job in executive office to be something smaller first (like mayor, or governor).  But really, I’d rather not – I think he does a damn fine job as a legislator and I’d rather he keep on doing that.

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      As for his “biggest problem”, in terms of being a candidate for president, I think it’s something entirely different: he doesn’t have the potential to connect with most voters.  He connects very well with (some) people who already believe in his positions; he also has some draw with people who are cynical about politics but would have a tendency to believe in his positions.  If he had both of those “sets” 100%, that still wouldn’t be enough of a coalition to win, but he doesn’t even have that, because his newageyness, while generating a lot of enthusiasm from some, is a huge turnoff to a much larger set of people.  And outside those two sets, it’s not only his newageyness, but his emphasis on very liberal positions (most of which I like) and his inability to get a message out about those positions that will work with people who think they oppose them.

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      If Kucinich had a hundred million dollars, were treated as a major candidate by the press, and had never been mayor of Cleveland, I expect he could win over maybe 20% of American voters.

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      P.S. He really does believe he can win, I think.  But he can’t.

  7. Because he is the only candidate who made videos, sent e-mails, and asked people to vote for him in that poll – regardless of how irrelevant it may be.

    • he’s the only one.  I got emails via DFA from Richardson, Dodd, and I think Obama.  Kucinich may have done more, and he probably did, but it wasn’t totally ignored by all the others (though it may have been ignored by Clinton).

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