Hillary Clinton ⇓ Iowa is a 2-way or 3-way tie. Her New Hampshire lead is down to single digits (already showing the idiocy of a recent Boston Globe article). At least she still doubles up Obama in South Carolina and Nevada. Her best hit lately is getting the First Lady of New Hampshire (and implicitly the governor), and the likely sympathy bump after Nutso McCrazy holds some staffers in New Hampshire hostage. The good news — nothing seems different structurally. Her message has recovered from the licenses-for-illegal-immigrants bobble, and is as disciplined as ever. Hillary is emulating her husband in not striking the first blow, but pounding out a shot at Obama or Edwards anytime they shoot at her.
Clinton has been running an amazing, disciplined campaign. She’s pretty much been doing everything right, so how do you recover from here? Clinton can’t do the things she already was doing much better, so either she starts doing different things (tactics, policy), or keeps trucking and hoping Obama stumbles.
John Edwards ⇔ Edwards is still fighting the hazard that loomed at the start of his campaign — being crowded out by the two glamour candidates. Edwards biggest hope, a victory in Iowa, now is half as likely that there are three candidates with a real chance of winning. Since he’s out of the game in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, how does Edwards get any momentum heading into MegaTuesday?
I theorize that Edwards’ “above it all” attitude regarding the Obama/Hillary spats is based on his expectation that the two will tire the voters and punch each other out, as Dean and Gephardt did in 2004. While a possibility, Clinton is thrice as savvy as Dean, and that’s a stretch to believe. But admirable — which gets you a Cabinet post.
Barack Obama ⇑ The Onion’s This Dumb Century had a fake article about Oprah leading a secessionist part of the US named Ugogirl into a cheesecake-filled new era. But why leave the US when you can take it over? Oprah is the A-list star on the rising Obama bandwagon. Obama is tied for first in Iowa (and just as importantly given their arcane rules, he is the most common second choice there, is climbing in New Hampshire, and has the money to go national from there.
While Obama has been helped by a media desperate for a horse race, he is smartly breaking with previous approaches. His August decision not to participate in any more multi-candidate forums? He did two today in Iowa. His moribund PAC? Writing checks by the handful. The nice guy approach? He’s been using a more direct approach to Clinton’s health care plan, personal qualifications, and almost everything else, and Hillary’s complaints about it aren’t getting traction.
Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, & Bill Richardson ⇓ Thanks for playing the greatest game in 21st century politics, guys. There will always be special moments: Gravel’s snarling debate performances, Kucinich’s “no-strings” pirouettes, Richardson’s painful public utterances, Biden’s line on Giuliani’s 9/11 fetishism, and Chris Dodd’s…um…hair. Thanks for the memories, they are great. But all good things come to an end. And for awhile I thought Richardson or Dodd might make it to division I, those times are over.
Of course, it is still legal to continue your campaigns for president. It might provide some variety, and maybe make for an odd surprise along the way. But we’re in the 9th round of a 10-round brawl, and you’re all still in the locker room. But together we learned some valuable lessons, had a little fun, and maybe — just maybe — got the inside track on being Vice President. Thanks for everything fellas.
Most polls, including the more recent Rasmussen (http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2007/11/the_importance_of_being_second.html), shows Edwards first in second-choice by a good margin.
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p>If Edwards were to win Iowa- which is just a likely outcome- how can you say he is out in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada? Clearly, you are discounting the role of momentum in the early states.
I’m not discounting anything. For instance, if Gandhi were to pop back to life and endorse John Edwards, he’d have a good shot in the other early states, and this is only slightly less likely than him winning in Iowa.
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p>Granted, Edwards’ team’s experience in Iowa is something that isn’t measured in polls. However, he’s a very known quantity in Iowa, and still is struggling to go beyond his current ceiling. As for the second choice thing, it’s an important question to ask who’s second choice is he? More specifically, is he the second choice of Richardson, Dodd, and Biden, who have the most to offer in getting that 4th delegate? Maybe, maybe not.
Its highly unlikely at this point that Edwards can win in IA, most of the second choice polls Ive seen show Obama in the lead and his grassroots organization is much better than Clintons or Edwards. Also Obama and Clinton have the money and organization to compete in later primaries, Edwards can’t. While Kerry did gain the IA bump to unseat Dean in NH he was also second place before IA whilst Edwards if fourth or fifth there, a distant third in SC, and by that point dead anywhere else.
Edwards has the strongest union support in the state, and they make sure their people get out, whereas Obama’s support is mostly among younger voters who are less likely to attend. Edwards has the strongest grassroots organization in the state, and that will count on caucus day.
the horse race.
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p>To be fair–all the lower tier candidates have had some good debate moments. Even with his limited time I thought Biden did best in both of the last two debates. Richardson’s first few debate performances were lousy but I thought he was pretty good in the last two. Dodd decided to run after the Military Commissions Act (the worst legislation in my lifetime). He has gotten out this message out at debates — also with limited time
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p>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
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p>You never know–with the Firefighter Union endorsement Dodd may have more influence than his polls show.
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p>That said I basically agree on most of what you said on the candidates.
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p>I wonder if the early Michigan primary will have any influence since Obama and Edwards are not on the ballot but Clinton and Dodd are.
the “big three”. Dennis would be my choice. I really hate mainstream and the marketing industry that has the entire race all sewn up and in the bag today.
Okay, let’s all vote for the guy who is peering at UFOs with Shirley MacLaine, and Huckabee will look normal in comparison.