Iowa is this Thursday. Polling among dems shows a race that is thisclose among Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. The caucus rules are confusing and cumbersome. Because of the disproportionate distribution of delegates from rural communities, you could have less people caucus for you than two other candidates and still receive the most support. It’s kind of like the electoral college, only much more difficult to understand. On the GOP side, look for Mike Huckabee to edge past Mitt Romney with John McCain placing a distant (but respectable) 3rd place finish.
NH is Tuesday the 8th (a week from tomorrow). My predictions: Hillary Clinton wins followed by Barack Obama and John Edwards (with the bottom two’s placement heavily influenced by their Iowa showing). I’m calling this state for McCain on the GOP side. He seems to be resurging at the most important time. Mitt is fighting for his life and Huckabee needs to have the perfect storm commence to remain in the race. Giuliani –taking the risky strategy of waiting for the delegate-rich big states — may be a genius or a fool. We’ll see in a month.
[One thing that troubles me about NH is the fact that polling locations have different start/end times in different towns, cities, and counties. Some towns that may lean one way or the other politically may have more or less time to vote. I get the whole live-free-or-die thing, but this seems unconstitutional.]
What say you?
Cross posted: http://mattomalley.blogspot.com
My extended reasoning is here, but in terms of Iowa, I expect:
1. Clinton (lots of paid staff and diffuse support)
2. Edwards (virtual tie for a wily campaign)
3. Obama (furious attacks bely a fading campaign)
4. Richardson (what might have been)
5. Biden
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p>Dodd will hope for better in NH (won’t get it, will drop out), Richardon’s hangin’ on until NV. Biden may hope that SC gives him some love.
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p>Iowa
1. Huckabee (Christians unite)
2. Romney (all that money can buy)
3. McCain (heating up, and scooping undecideds)
4. Paul (just out of the top 3)
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p>I expect Hunter to drop out after Iowa. Giuliani will try to hang in there until NH, and Thompson may try to hang in there until SC.
I remember the different poll closing times from when I worked for the state party in 2002, but I thought the length was the same. I suppose you could make an equal protection argument, but in the absense of state law individual Town Clerks basically run the show.
Matt – we agree. Clinton wins NH (and takes the nomination on Feb. 5th says I).
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p>Iowa(D) – Clinton, Edwards, Obama in that order and bunched closely.
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p>Iowa(R) – Huckabee, Romney, Paul
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p>NH (R) – McCain, Romney, Huckabee.
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p>No major players on either side drop before Feb. 5th.