Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Willard Takes NH for Granted

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The Willard campaign appears to have decided they can take a win in NH for granted, and is tacking even farther to the right (yes, it does seem to be possible) as Iowa approaches. Their latest gambit: a slavish embrace of the Bush administration’s foreign policy:

Mitt Romney accused Republican presidential rival Mike Huckabee of “running from the wrong party” for criticizing President Bush’s foreign policy as an “arrogant bunker mentality.”

The campaign has evidently decided that even though Bush is very unpopular (2-1 have disapproved since last year: record-breaking negatives), since more than 3/4 of Republicans now approve of Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq, they are on safe ground.

Risky proposition.

ROMNEY = BUSH/IRAQ is a losing slogan, I think, in New Hampshire. McCain, a harsh critic of the Bush administration for a long time, is gaining ground in the Granite State. McCain won the NH Republican primary in 2000.

Romney needs to win big in our northern neighbor to preserve any hope of national credibility, considering he’s running way behind both Giuliani and Huckabee nationwide. Campaigning as a Bush Republican in Manchester, Derry, Nashua and Lebanon, is unlikely to produce that result in 2008.

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Comments

  1. At this point if Mitt loses IA and McCain wins NH then the nomination is basically Gulianis. This is because Guliani has the money to compete in the big states which Huck and McCain dont have. Though if a resurgent McCain and Rudy split the vote it might be Huckabees.

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    p>Huckabee would be the easiest candidate to beat since Wall Street Republicans would migrate en masse to the Democratic fold or just not vote and not give money. This could be a big realignment election, especially considering Obamas popularity with Republicans.

    • Bush and Rove assembled an extraordinary coalition between two groups that putatively have little in common: religious fanatics, and big business. It was enough to barely win two elections — when faced with grotesquely mis-managed Democratic campaigns — but it was always tenuous. If it fractures in 2008 over Huckabee, excellent.

    • If Huckabee wins Iowa and McCain wins NH, I don’t really see how Giuliani wins. He won’t win SC either, meaning that the momentum will be with…well, either Huckabee, McCain, or Romney…not Giuliani. Sure, Giuliani may be able to hold onto Florida, but frankly I’m not sure he’ll make it much past that. Assuming Huckabee wins both Iowa and South Carolina, an McCain comes back from the dead and wins NH, just how does Giuliani recover? Wall Street Republicans gave to a southern Christian Conservative before, perhaps they’ll like one that’s a bit more well spoken this time around.

      • -Romney is dead if he loses IA and NH, no ifs, ands, or buts about that

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        p>-Rudy has a lot of organization in CA, NY, NJ, FL, and could take Romney support in MI, it would be easy for him to beat Huck except that he and McCain split the same base of the party so Huck could get a plurality

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        p>And Bush had both a Christian and a probusiness message. Huckabee has a specific anti-business message his mantra is literally “Main Street NOT Wall Street”, he is very protectionist, and Wall Street will likely dislike him

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        p>Also to respond to Bobs point its very likely there will be a real splinter since if Huck loses the Christian right bolts, and if Huck wins the business wing bolts, Romney is the only candidate who could keep the perverse coalition alive and hed be the solid frontrunner if he was a Presbyterian but sadly for the GOP hes a Mormon so no dice.

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        p>As long as the Dems dont nominate Hillary Clinton who will unite the GOP behind an Anyone But Hillary candidate we should be good to go.  

        • I think I see where you’re coming from, I think we’re just reading the tea leaves differently. I think Huckabee will win in Iowa, probably not in NH but the momentum from IA may allow for it (or not..unclear), and will take SC. By that point the momentum will be in his favor and it will be his for the taking. I don’t see how McCain or Giuliani recover after taking 3rd and 4th in IA.

          • Uggh! That’s all we’d need!!  Mitt Romney was a disaster as Governor of the Bay State, and he’d be even worse as President, particularly because he knows little to nothing about how to run things.  In fact, Mitt Romney did what many, if not most of the Republicans have done:  He ran as a moderate in order to get elected governor of the Bay State,, and, when the unsuspecting Bay State electorate (not me, I didn’t vote for him), managed to elect Romney for governor, he went right back to where he’d been before…Conservative and rightwing.

          • …continue as a third party candidate, more power to him.  He can’t possibly win that way, but he could all but guarantee that the Republican nominee would lose in the general election.  I say he should go for it.

  3. You aren’t going to get as many independents voting in the NH GOP primary this time around.  In 2000, you had significant numbers crossing over to vote McCain to the top.  This year, a very active Democratic primary is going to keep the number of Independents voting in the Republican primary pretty low (and those that do are aiming at Ron Paul).

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    p>A lack of those independents makes the NH primary electorate resemble that of Iowa more than usual, and this “redder” voting base could appreciate blind loyalty.

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