Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Beyond this week

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It’s an interesting scenario. Both Clinton and Obama appear to each have enough between numbers, money and organization to keep up a fight.

And if you mix early results so far with poll numbers coming (even adjusted a bit for momentum), it’s easy to envision a very long, very close fight for the nomination.

WWED? What will Edwards do? Could he gather enough delegates to be the kingmaker? Will he stay in to fight the good fight? Consider this is also probably his last best shot at this. (Also that being realistic and getting out allows him to look the nice guy AND go home with his wife).

I know. I know. History tells us these things tend to work themselves out. Every time out it looks like it could go all 15 rounds, but it never does. Even I don’t expect a battle on the convention floor.

But unless Obama really croaks Hillary in every state, do you expect her to give in?

Or is it more likely Hillary recovers from a 10-8 first round and scores a brutal fourth or fifth round knockout?

*Disclaimer: I’m with Edwards.

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Comments

  1. For nearly a year the spotlight has been on Hillary and the bright light has finaly burnt a hole through the money clip … Ah well ….
    But now that same light will fall on Obama …
    Rhetoric will only get someone so far … You can only dodge and duck so long …
    Who remembers “a million points of light”? … ohhhh, so inspirational … but what about specific policy?
    This could be a brokered convention unless osmeone steps up and actualy says something IMO

      • You are right. It was a thousand points of light, not a million. My bag …
        I have a much better visual image of that piece of “WORDCRAFT” than the actual number.
        I remember that the phrase was going around at the same time as the LA riots and I used to think of the “thousand points of light” as being the picture that one would see if they looked back on the US west coast from outer space, seeing the city burn … Probably not what Daddy Bush had in mind …
        Thousand points of light .. lol, thats the thing with rhetoric;
        It will mean a million different things to a million different people and that is because it realy doesnt mean anything at all.

  2. Did you look at when these polls were taken??  Most of them well before the Iowa caucuses.  The whole ballgame has changed.  The best time to read a poll is within a few days of the election in that state. Anything may be helpful in terms of trend lines, but have very little to do with the final outcome.

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    p>Nice try, though.

      • i really, really don’t want to snark, but the Clinton folks are making me feel really really snarky.  I will try harder.

          • I was just explaining why I was feeling snarky.  I like Edwards and was thrilled to see him support Barack against the status quo in the debate.  They’d make a great team.

            • If you’re snarky because of the Clintons, snark at them.

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              p>I don’t see Edwards taking the VP slot. I don’t see any of the three D leaders being willing to take that spot.

    • Fair point on the timing of the polls. But “things change, discussion now is useless” doesn’t really cut it for me.

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      p>I’m not trying to do anything but engage in discussion. So if there’s evidence that those numbers have moved or that Obama’s momentum will be more lasting than Hillary’s was, I’ll freely consider them.

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      p>I don’t know if you’re an Obama supporter. But, I have noted that Obama folks seem to be the most sensitive in either party. They seem the most prickly. Hillary people seem to have the thickest skin.

      • I just think the polls are such a moving target right now and that old polls are pretty meaningless.  

    • Clinton still might not take 50% in MI, which would be embarrassing for her.  If the JE and BO folks show and vote for anyone else, Clinton could barely edge out Gravel and Kucinich, the only other two national Dems on the ballot.  If the JE and BO folks banded together, they could all vote for the same lower-tier candidate (DK or MG) and Clinton could lose delegate-less Michigan.  That would hurt her.

      • I have a sister in MI who will vote “uncommitted”. I don’t know how common this will be, but it does create another interesting scenario.

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        p>But getting back to the original post, I also need to see more recent polls to take them seriously.

  4. I don’t think Edwards can drop out if he wants a chance at being VP. If he drops out and cites his wife’s health as a reason, he will have a hard time explaining why he would be interested in campaigning 2-5 months later. Also, I think he sincerely wants to change the dialog and knows that he can do that as long as he is running, even if he does poorly in every primary. So I think he will stick with it until his campaign runs out of money. If he somehow pulls ahead of Hillary and has a realistic chance at the nomination he will stay longer (more money will be available to him).

  5. None of them is less than several weeks old. Given how much the polls in IA and NH have swung in the last couple of weeks, I think you can expect to see those numbers change dramatically the next time around.

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    p>A lot of people have been holding back on Obama because they were not sure he could win. Now that he has proven that he can, and that he can attract new voters, a lot more people are going to be joining the bandwagon.

  6. I don’t see Edwards surviving a distant 3rd in NH solely because of money.  The last numbers I saw showed that he had less than 1/3rd of the cash as either HRC or BO.  There’s no way he can compete on Super Tuesday if he doesn’t get an infusion of cash quickly.

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    p>If Edwards drops out, I see the bulk of his support going to Obama, at which point this could be over by Presidents’ Day.

    1. Speaking personally, as an independent, I find myself shifting from HRC to Obama.  

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    p>The biggest question, for voters undecided b/w her and Obama, is probably whether Obama can win it all.  

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    p>The effect of Iowa and New Hampshire is to make voters “feel” like he’s a winner, gives him gravitas, which helps increase perception that he’s electable in the general.  

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    p>2. I also think that Axelrod has mastered this sense of having both centrist Dems and left Dems believe that the candidate, in his heart of hearts, is with THEM.  

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    p>I want the recipe for that cake.  The one where you have it and eat it.  

  10. The Clintons have been acting scared – very scared – over the past few weeks.  They know that they have a big, big problem.

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    p>HRC’s strategy seems to change by the day.  “Experience” one day.  “Change” another day.  “My opponents are flip floppers” the next day.  Etc.

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    p>And Bill has gotten very bizarre – he’s gone from being “an unusually good liar” to being a not-very-good liar.  Fantasy world tours with Poppy Bush.  He was against the war from the beginning.  Vote for Hillary or al Qaeda will atack us.  And so forth.

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    p>They know that they’re dangerously close to being eliminated.

    • After she loses the primary she will not run again for the Senate.  Moving to NY and running for her current seat was simply part of the big strategy to gain the White House.  Just like her tears yesterday.

        • Besides, she has five years left on her current term (from this point).  That’s plenty of time to maintain high standards in the Senate (as you state has been the case).

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          p>I would have much more respect for her if she personally limited herself to two terms.

  11. Here’s South Carolina:

    Among 579 likely Democratic primary voters asked to choose between three candidates, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton (50% to 30%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 16%. Among African Americans (51% of the sample), Obama leads Clinton 69% to 23%.

    • Just a wake up call to all you Hillary supporters still left, the only state she currently has a lead in is Florida and it is eroding fast.

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      p>Obama is likely going to win NH today, he is now leading by nearly double digits in South Carolina, and Hillary Clintons lead in Florida is quickly evaporating.

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      p>And to Edwards supporters your man is not leading anywhere right now, and this will be more true after today and tommorrow.

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      p>Now certainly I respect John Edwards and Hillary Clinton and feel that they have earned a right to stay until Feb 5th. But after that day, and again look for more Obama victories than defeats that day according to most polls, it will be time to rally behind the nominee and to do so fast, especially considering the bloodletting over in the GOP fold.

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      p>These polls are taken from a great site  

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