While the press has talked a great deal about Governor Patrick’s impact on the presidential race both nationally and in our state, the primary in New Hampshire showed that Obama’s people should be worried about winning here in Massachusetts. That is because during the last week of the New Hampshire race a number of prominent a Mass elected leaders who support Hillary Clinton flooded New Hampshire with their volunteers and staff. This effort seemed to have a big impact and I also think the dynamics of the primary race here in the state work against Obama.
I was volunteering for the Clinton campaign on the last weekend and on Election Day in Manchester and several busloads of Menino supporters were on the ground going door to door in the city on both days (Clinton crushed Obama in the city). I was also told by a friend that Congressman Jim McGovern, his staff and a lot of his volunteers were helping lead the effort in the Concord area. McGovern was also on the radio on Election Day making a strong case for why liberals should be supporting Hillary. I read that the Senate President and House Speaker were also active and brought people up to help. While some people say that Kerry’s endorsement should push Obama over the top, I am not so sure his endorsement will have that big of an impact compared to these elected officials efforts.
With Menino in Boston, McGovern in Central Mass and the Speaker and Senate President cracking the whip on their folks, I think this race is going to be tight. I assume Obama will do well in Cambridge/Somerville/Newton axis and out in the Berkshires, but the vote in New Hampshire showed that Clinton owned the urban vote and cities have a higher proportion of democratic primary voters. I also assume that lots of suburban independents will vote in the Republican primary to either support (or hopefully reject!) Mitt. It seems like the Governor (whom I like and support) should be worried about a high profile loss. Considering that he has been pretty banged up by the Legislature, I think he needs a win, but I don’t think this is a done deal. Thoughts?
I was in Concord with the McGovern team for the final five days of the primary. He had a good number of his supporteres there. Certainly Congressman McGovern was influential in my decision. When there are good candidates with relatively similar positions, that is when endorsements come into play. I have the sense that people are more likely to be influenced by their representative in Congress, or a state senator, than they are likely to be influenced by a statewide office holder. Activists and regular voters both tend to have a more personal connection with their members of Congress. My Congressman asked me to consider supporting Senator Clinton early on. While I have great respect for both Governor Patrick and Senator Kerry, I had made my decision and become active in Senator Clinton’s campaign, long before either of them made endorsements.
Looks like the hard work of a number of people over many months was rewarded on Tuesday. Like you, I respect the officials who are supporting Senator Obama and I’m proud to have supported the Gov early on, but I made my decision long ago as well.
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p>As one who was a city official when the Clinton Administration did so much for Boston and other cities, I saw the benefit of programs like COPS, Empowerment Zones, Youth Opportunity grants for out of school youth, programs that helped create jobs and reduce crime during the 90’s, a time of national prosperity.
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p>I had a great opportunity to see Mrs. Clinton up close in 1992 at a campaign event in New Orleans, working with some of the best Massachusetts advance people in the business. Her appearance outshown that of the first President Bush, also in the state that day, as the media gave great play to her visit. A week before, I saw her speak in Scranton, PA, after Gov Casey boycotted her speech over the choice issue. She was introduced by former Mayor Ray Flynn, who gave perhaps one of his best speeches ever, about how the issues of the economy overrode differences over social issues, and they both blew away a crowd of over 1,000 blue collar Pennsylvanians. (I also vaguely remember calling home at about 2:30 in the am from a place called McMullen’s in the company of Flynn, the Rodham brothers, and a few Pennsylvania electeds who swung our way that night — ah, persuasion …).
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p>Later, when Tom Menino was head of the US Conference of Mayors, Senator Clinton was first and foremost in working with the city execs to get homeland security funds out of Washington and the state bureaucracies and into the frontlines. She was there, not just at the press conferences, but doing the work behind the scenes. As a result, she has garnered the support of many of the nation’s mayors (LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa was in NH for HRC as well) who will succeed on the basis of deeds, not speeches (see MMA post as well).
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p>The bottom line is that it’ll be fun for Massachusetts to actually HAVE a race for once, even as NY and California take center stage that day. Wondering how much paid media will be invested here (probaly not much as a lot was spent on local channels for NH). It was interesting to see that Senator Clinton did very well in the communities closest to Mass. and we’ll see if that carries over into Feb 5.
Howard, thanks as always for your kind words. Kate
and everyone should support Kate’s bid for reelection!