Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Iowa caucus results / open thread [UPDATE: Huckabee, Obama the projected winners]

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Results are trickling in from Iowa.  The running tally for the Dems is here.  I’m looking for one for the GOP.  TPM has some — not sure of their source.  [update] CNN’s results are better than TPM’s.

Current results (I’ll try to update periodically):

1680/1781 precincts

Clinton: 29.53%

Edwards: 29.97%

Obama: 37.26% *CNN has called it for Obama

— BMG First Tier Separator Bar™ —

Biden: 1%

Dodd: 0%

Richardson: 2%

The Dems have got themselves a barn-burner!

GOP — 66% reporting

Giuliani: 4%

Huckabee: 34% *CNN and Fox have called it for Huckabee

McCain: 13%

Paul: 10%

Romney: 25%

Thompson: 14%

Did anyone think Ron Paul was going to pull better than 10%?

UPDATE by Charley — consolidating competing threads …

afertig points to this site for Iowa results — check out the catchy handle!

http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/

And Talking Points Memo has a big fat Iowa scoreboard up. The press is anticipating Obama and Hillary, Edwards following.

My most fervent hope is that the Iowa Steaming Pile results are as muddled as possible, thus rendering it irrelevant — which it is anyway, except that it’s not, because we’ve all agreed that it’s not, even if we haven’t.

(Unless Edwards wins, of course. YEEAAARRRRGH!)

ANOTHER UPDATE: HUCK-PHOOEY! CNN projects The Huckster the winner! How about that: His plan really was “Two Words: Chuck Norris.”

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Comments

  2. Senator Barack Obama : 32.98%
    Senator John Edwards : 32.29%
    Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.88%

  3. a supposed bellwether county, has Edwards leading comfortably with about half precincts reporting

  4. The woman on Fox News is in a Democratic caucus. She saw an old guy in the background and asked, “Is that Joe Biden? Oops, bad information.” Fantastic.

    • Senator Barack Obama : 34.00%
      Senator John Edwards : 31.86%
      Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.47%

      <

      p>As more urban areas report, Obama starts to pull away. Not a bad strategy on his part: get a solid 1/3 of the rural areas and then solidly win the urban areas.

  5. Did anyone think Ron Paul was going to pull better than 10%?

    <

    p>Yes.  Well, I thought it likely, not certain.

    <

    p>I hope he does much better in NH (where I also think it likely he’ll get over 10%).  Don’t get me wrong, I very much do not want him as President.  But he has no chance of that.

    • I had no idea Paul would do double digits (albeit modest ones) and I’m thrilled to see it!  This guy is the grassiest of the grassroots on either side and its phenomenal that he pulled 10%, even as he is being excluded from debates now.

      <

      p>The only things that puzzles me is that I didn’t hear it in the news  (well, I was listening to NPR after all – they were all infatuated with Obama but unwilling to be unkind to Hill and Hair, and nothing but playing up the evangelicals / bashing Romney on the right)

  6. For a moment, I thought he might be pulling out of the entire contest. Sadly, it appears he has only conceded defeat in Iowa. A pity.

    <

    p>In a sense, I am coming to see the Romney campaign as a profoundly good thing: it is a net transfer of money from a wretched creature to thousands of businesses, from TV stations to diners, in the early states.

    <

    p>Seamus, you have not been forgotten, and your shabby treatment will be avenged.

    • Of independents:

      <

      p>41% Obama
      23% Edwards
      17% Clinton
      19% Others

      <

      p>Democrats apparently split more evenly.

  9. don’t you think this will automatically mean 4 more years of Republican presidency? USA is not Massachusetts, I can’t see the majority voting for a black candidate.

    • People were saying that a black candidate couldn’t be elected governor of Massachusetts, either.

      <

      p>And I remember 25 years ago, when I volunteered for Harold Washington’s campaign, that people were saying that a black man couldn’t be elected mayor of a racist town like Chicago.

      <

      p>Obama has come out of nowhere to raise over $100 million, build a national grassroots campaign, and he’s won the first contest by a good margin.  If he can go on to win the Democratic nomination, I wouldn’t bet against him.  

    • Bill Clinton won with 43% of the vote.

      <

      p>It comes down to the electoral college. This is a crappy way to look at it, but all Obama would have to do is retain all the blue states and pick up one big red state or a few moderately sized red states.

      <

      p>Can you see any blue states flipping this year?  I can certainly see a few red states tipping this year regardless of the nominee.  I’m not saying it will be easy, but not impossible. Perhaps even probable.  

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