Cross-posted at Holmes & Co.
It won’t be close.
The template for the Democratic campaign is 1968. Hillary Clinton is Hubert Humphrey, the candidate of the party establishment. Among Democrats, Humphrey was respected, but not loved. He had a great liberal record, but he had been slow to criticize the Vietnam War. To young people, he seemed out of style.
Barack Obama is Bobby Kennedy. He’s got youth, charisma and style. He draws big crowds and brings new people into politics, especially the young. He gives his followers hope for the future.
As in 1968, this election comes at a time when Americans are upset over a misguided war, an uncertain economy, a corrupt political structure and polarized politics.
John Edwards, in this analogy, is Gene McCarthy, a candidate who said the right things on the issues but was out-charisma-ed by RFK.
An alternative analogy: the Mass. Democratic primary in 2006. Hillary is Tom Reilly, Obama is Deval Patrick. Edwards is Chris Gabrieli.
Good pieces on this topic by Bob Herbert on the Obama phenomenon and Gail Collins on what Hillary ’69 would think of Hillary ’08. And here’s an interesting account of Hillary getting booed at a Democrats’ dinner Friday in NH.
To paraphrase a song from 1968: Something is happening here and you don’t know what it is, do you, Mrs. Clinton?
Unless something dramatic happens at the debate tonight, Obama’s going to win New Hampshire. It won’t be close.
but always conclude that history never repeats itself in such an exact form. It happens more like deja-vu- which is really a collection of memory-shards.
<
p>The Hillary-Humphrey comparison is apt, but remember that Humphrey in ’68 was tied directly to the incumbent White House.
<
p>Obama as RFK? Perhaps. A better comparison is with Edwards, who is both telegenic AND bases his campaign on economic justice. RFK and Edwards are both rural campaigners concerned about poverty.
<
p>Obama/McCarthy comparison sounds more appropriate, as both originated as antiwar candidates with a large youth following.