Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Now Where To?

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On the Republican side, McCain just won the most important Republican primary …thats why he was smiling so brightly on TV as he declared victory.  What’s ironic is that without Thompson in the race Huckabee would have won tonight.  But no matter, America loves a winner and Huckabee does not have national legs and furthermore he’s far from ready for prime time.  McCain has the strongest, by far, national appeal and he is popular with Independants as well.  He is the Republicans best candidate and with So. Carolina’s conservative “seal of approval” he will get nothing but stronger.  McCain will be the Republican nominee for president this year…and what a story it is.

The Democrats are in trouble because neither Clinton nor Obama have a strong chance against McCain.  Hillary may be leading with older demo woman and traditional Democrats but her national negatives stay at 45% or higher and many  Republicans simply detest her and Bill.  If she is nominated the Republicans will be happy happy as she will guarantee bringing out tons of animated Republicans.  Her strongest card is her “experience” but McCain beats her in a national reflection on their comparative experiences.

Obama has a better chance of beating McCain but so far he has been too light on solid substance.  It hurts him against Hillary and would hurt him more against McCain. Obama can still beat Hillary but he needs to:

1.  Get direct and tough with her in the future debates…starting Monday.  That means hitting her weaknesses like her high negatives, messing up health care originally by creating a bureacracy of analysis and loosing the program when she had her chance, Iraq waffling, pandering to polls, etc etc.  Don’t leave it to Edwards any more to take her on.  And by the way, on Monday when she hits you with your Reagan comments clearly remind her that she was once an active “Goldwater Girl” – even in college.  Most Americans don’t know that and watch her flush at the mention of it.  Talk about a wasted youth.

2.  Take on Bill directly.  His conduct has been uncontrolled with and his loss of temper simply weird for a former president or future presidential spouse.  Remind America that the Clinton years, with 2 of them bogged down in impeachment, was no bed of roses.  Obama should not let Bill Clinton get a  free ride and he should not let B Clinton attack him unanswered any longer.  If Obama won’t defend himself (against Bill Clinton) then he may not defend us either.  Take on Big bullying Bill.  He has stepped into the arena, he knows the rules.  If Omama gets into with Bill Clinton publically, at worst it will make Hillary look like a sideshow.

3.   Go domestic.  Obama has established his judgment and credentials on Iraq, change, Independents and the young.  This year is increasing going to become “the economy stupid”.  Emphasize his own personal and professional career and story regarding food, clothing, shelter and education.  He has a more compelling story here than Hillary, don’t let her steal it away and come out with specific, creative domestic programs that make sense.

The Democrats are in a tough position.  Their best candidate is not electable and their most electable candidate is not their best.  What a year…only in America.

The Demos one big chance is McCain’s uncompromising obsession with winning a military victory in Iraq… America does not want this war and therein lies his Achilles heal.  But then again you can count on Bush/Cheney firing up the Iraq war or starting a new war prior to November – to the political benefit of McCain and ensuring them that their war mongering strategy is carried on.  

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Comments

    1. Obama’s appeal is his sunny, positive style. Taking on Senator Clinton aggressively undermines the sunny, positive style.
    2. Senator Clinton’s campaigning has almost been the opposite of Giuliani’s: the more Rudy campaigns the less voters like him. In Hillary Clinton’s case, the more she campaigns, the more obvious it is that the media narrative about her is wrong.
    3. Republicans might not like Hillary Clinton but they also do not like John McCain. These guys value loyalty very highly. (Voting in lockstep in Congress is not achieved without a high value placed on loyalty.) The independence admired by independents in McCain is hated by the Republican base.
    4. The press certainly fawns over John McCain, the maverickiest maverick ever to talk straight. On the other hand, he does have vulnerabilities. He is Mr Surge himself. He  is a reckless jingoist and always has been. (2 million dead Vietnamese were too few in his desire for victory and revanche in the Vietnam War. From his view, we didn’t kill enough of them. Peachy.)
    5. Mr Straight Shooter has also changed his tune significantly in an attempt to appeal to right-wing fans of scriptural inerrancy. Every such shift for him can be painful for his campaign to explain.

    • http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/stor…

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      p>As you can see from the above, Obama has decided to confront Bill directly.  I understand your point and actually held it for a while myself.  But Bill has gotten away with it and therefore…like all bullies he has increased his attacks on Obama.  Obama really has no choice, when your attacked you have to defend yourself or you ratify your attacker or in this case look weak to the American public.

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