Tomorrow is the Nevada caucus and South Carolina GOP primary.
My predictions:
NV: Hillary eeks out a victory over Obama, despite Barack’s support from the influential Culinary workers union. Edwards finishes a respectable third. On the GOP side, Mittens claims a win due to the fact that he is the only republican who has made a play for the state. Also, the sizable LDS population of Nevada makes for an impenetrable base for the former Baystate guv.
SC: This will be close. If McCain can win (RealClearPolitics gives him an average lead of 4.9% in recent polls), he will be the nominee. If Huckabee (who’s evangelical base is almost always under polled), pulls out a win, then the repubs could be headed into Super Tuesday (and possibly the convention) without a clear front-runner. I’d give a slight edge to Huck in this contest, if for no other reason than I’d like the GOP to remain in disarray for as long as possible. Also, look for Thompson to end up in fourth place, drop out, and endorse McCain.
Cross-posted at: http://mattomalley.blogspot.com
As the numbers dwindle, it gets easier.
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p>In Nevada, Edwards would get a good third, I”d say over 25%, not least of all because of lots of covert union support in the North, as well as his rural track. It’s a close one between Hillary and Obama. I think one aspect is that Obama does much better with non-Democrats. Given that the GOP caucus is really not contested, he may benefit from a lot of non-Democrats caucusing for him. Hillary has the Reid organization on her side, as well as other Establishment figures. It’s a wild one given the inexperienced caucus and precinct chairs, but I think Hillary edges Obama.
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p>For the Republicans, I agree with your prediction and its rationale. (Plus I don’t think NV independents will be as motivated to plump for a candidate who’s ignored them.)
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p>In South Carolina, McCain doesn’t have a shot. By appealing to Christianity and racism Southern Heritage, Huckabee is hitting all the right notes. Romney gets third, but not by that much. The press has a field day.
In NV, if the Cullinary Union can put the heat on it’s 60,000 members through the shop stewards to go to the caucus in their own worksite building and then keep the peer pressure applied to get them to vote Obama, Obama should walk away with a win in NV.
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p>Pity the Latina casino worker who wants to vote for Hillary Clinton, the union pressure/intimidation will be hard to fight today…no escape in an open vote/no secret ballot caucus held right where you work with your union bosses looking on.
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p>The nasty, negative attack ad on Sen. Clinton by the UNITEHERE union (paid for by members PAC funds) in Spanish with outrageous claims (that both Clinton and Edwards have asked Obama to disavow without response) surely had some impact for Obama.
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p>The combination of the two things should produce an Obama victory today. The Cullinary and UniteHere unions are much stronger and larger than the teacher’s and building trades who are with Clinton or the SEIU many of whom are with Edwards inspite of their Las Vegas leaders who want them to switch to Obama.
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p>Maybe we will all look back on Jan. 2008 as the month the Democrats’ battling candidates and battling unions lost the presidency….again.
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Quote for the day….
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p>”Of my two ‘handicaps’ being female put more obstacles in my path than being black….I’ve always met more discrimination being a woman than being black.”
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p>Congresswoman and presidential candidate Shirley Chisholm
The LV Sun is predicting turnout 200,000, and there are 60,000 Culinary workers. The math is easy to do.
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p>If today doesn’t convince anyone that caucuses are inimical to the democratic process, nothing ever will.