Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Predictions: Iowa

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I figure the following happens to lead to my predictions:

Democrats

  • John Edwards/Hillary Clinton benefit most from second votes of Biden/Dodd/Richardson.
  • Women break big time for Hillary.
  • College aged kids stay in/away from the caucus like they usually do.
  • New voters don’t make up 60% of Iowa caucus-goers, as the new poll which has Obama in front says.
  • Kucinich voters go for Obama (25% is better than 24%)
  • Edwards has excellent rural turnout.
  • Somehow it remains a three person race into New Hampshire… strange.

    Republicans

  • So few voters like Romney that he’s almost nobody’s second choice. He’s been there long enough and spent so much money… If people liked him, he’d be their first choice.
  • Ron Paul people flood some areas and have a respectable showing. In other areas they do one of two things: don’t pick a second candidate or pick John McCain because at least he’s not a religious nut case.
  • Thompson people go for McCain.
  • Giuliani people, where possible go for Ron Paul and where else go for Huckabee. Same with Alan Keyes’ supporter.
  • It’s a two candidate race after Iowa… Willard stays in but doesn’t recover etc.
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    • Comments

    1. Kerry, was a gaffe machine? I’ll just predict the top-three for each party.

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      p>Democrats: 1. Edwards 2. Clinton 3. Obama

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      p>Republicans: 1. Romney 2. Huckabee 3. McCain

    2. Pollster’s latest is a pretty damned good breakdown. Look at the Endgame charts. The only reason Obama went down at all was because of the “dark side of the moon” effect of trying to poll during the Holidays. Most people who make above $60k go on vacation during that point so it’s harder to poll them, and that makes up a significant part of Obama’s base.

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      p>If the trendlines are any indication, I think Obama will barely squeek on top. It’ll be Obama, Clinton, Edwards in that order, barely.

      <

      p>With regard to the new voters. I am inclined to agree with  Selzer:

      JUDY WOODRUFF: You’re also saying that 40 percent of the voters in the Democratic caucuses are going to be independents. How do you know that?

      ANN SELZER: Well, again, that’s what our data is telling us. And is that a surprise? Sure. It’s something that would raise an eyebrow, because that’s more independents than would have come to any previous caucus.

      But as you know in this campaign, just keeping your ear to the ground, there are a lot of people who are independent who are planning to come to caucus. The campaigns are certainly courting independents.

      And the trick with all of this is that Democrats, to people who proclaim that they are Democrats, are more for Hillary Clinton. And so, people who are more independent are more likely to vote for Barack Obama.

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      p>Second choice: I don’t buy that the 2nd choice is really going to Edwards. From pollster:

      The c.w. on second choice comes from four recent polls — Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg, CNN/ORC, Mason-Dixon/MSNBC/McClatchy — that all showed Edwards “winning” second choice followed by Clinton and Obama (in that order) among all likely caucus-goers. The key issue is not second choice overall, but the second choice of the supporters of candidates (Richardson, Biden, Dodd and Kucinich) who look like they will fall short of “viability.” Keep in mind that this reallocation process occurs separately within each precinct. so if there are regional patterns that push any of the bottom-four over 15%, or any of the top three below, a simple-statewide reallocation will be off.

      Four recent polls have done the reallocation of Richardson, Biden, Dodd and Kucinich supporters statewide, and guess what? Once again, the Des Moines Register poll tells a different story. The other three all show the reallocation working in Edwards’s favor — and by a net six and eight points by respectively, Mason-Dixon and InsiderAdvantage. Zogby’s first numbers from Sunday show small single digit benefit to Edwards and their report today implies the same. The Register reports, however, “that the results would change little if the votes for the lower-rated candidates were redistributed among the front-runners.” So here is yet another unresolved conflict that only the actual results will resolve.

      And guess what? Richardson’s folks might be going to Obama too. Of course that’s all rumors:

      Off-the-bus spoke with a national Obama staffer who confirmed, “We’ve heard that Richardson may also be telling his supporters to caucus for Barack if they aren’t viable. Nothing definitive but there’s a trend going on,” she added with a smile. Ah, that’s an understatement.

      <

      p>So there you go. If Richardson’s supporters decide to go with Obama and not Hillary, that could be the game. Obama, Clinton, Edwards, that order.

      • before you take a post and make a prediction…

        Richardson Campaign Response  (4.00 / 2)
        Hi this is Joaquin with the Richardson Campaign and the rumor is false- there are no deals.  These are typical last minute election shenanigans.

        Joaquin H. Guerra
        Richardson for President
        jguerra-at-richardsonforpresidnet.com
        by: Joaquin H. Guerra @ Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 00:02:36 AM EST

    3. Clinton-Edwards-Obama (When enthusiasm meets organization, enthusiasm loses)

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      p>Huckabee-Romney-McCain (Paul comes a close fourth)

    5. D: Obama, Edwards, Clinton
      R: Huckabee, Romney, McCain

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      p>I think that the only way that Clinton wins is by having a better GOTV effort but I don’t think it will be enough, and I don’t think she is going to pick up very many votes from supporters of non-viable candidates. I think that Romney’s fakeness has become pretty obvious by now, and I don’t think that he is going to be able to overcome it, at least in Iowa.

    6. I think Obama will win, but I always predict my hopes (When I was living in California, I thought we would win the recall… I was out knocking on the doors until the polls closed, got in the car to drive to the ‘victory’ party and the media was calling it already)

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      p>So, with that caveat

      <

      p>1. Edwards
      2. Obama
      3. Dodd Clinton (my heart isn’t that dumb)

      <

      p>Don’t really care about the Republicans, but hoping for a Romney win, because I would love him to be the nominee (Huckabee would be okay too, but don’t think he will have a shot)

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