After the mega-draw that was Super Tuesday, with Obama and Clinton locked in an even fight with strong coalitions backing each, the question for both was whether one could start to chip away at the coalition of the other. Virginia and Maryland showed Obama start to cross into Clinton’s turf, breaking into the blue-collar, Latino and female block the Clintons had built. Wisconsin last night shows again that Obama is the one breaking across the Super Tuesday boundaries. Here from WAPOs the Fix:
The shape of the electorate in Wisconsin should have played to Clinton’s strengths. Nearly six-in-ten voters in the Wisconsin Democratic primary were women; nine in ten were white; forty percent earned $50,000 or less; and 58 percent had no college degree. And yet, in each of those categories, Obama ran ahead or close to even with Clinton. Among women Clinton took 51 percent to 48 percent for Obama; among white voters he won 52 percent to 46 percent; among those earning less than $50,000 he won by seven points; and among those without a college degree Obama won 54 percent to 45 percent.
All of that data suggests one thing: Obama is building the coalition that Clinton appeared to have built in earlier votes. And without winning back a significant portion of that coalition, it becomes VERY difficult for her to come from behind and claim the nomination.
The question for Clinton going into Ohio and Texas is whether she can regain her traction with her base, and will Latinos in Texas act more like their California and Nevada cousins (2 or 3 to 1 for Clinton or more like those in Virginia (where they split)? Time will tell.
howardjp says
Though it is another “neighboring” state for Obama, so that must be factored in, as well as the presence of crossover Republicans.
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p>That said, HRC has to win the big two on March 4, for psychological reasons, if nothing else. CNN showed a mere 60 delegate spread at one point last night, which could be more than offset by a number of factors, Florida and Michigan among them. If not, well, there’s plenty of interesting local races to focus on for a while ….
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p>Her campaign simply has to raise its game.