Blue Mass Group

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Chesapeake Politics: Open Thread on the Primary Trifecta

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Early reports suggest more record turnouts in the DC, Virginia and Maryland events today. Will Obama’s momentum keep growing into a possibly unstoppable force. Will Clinton surpass expectations and win one of these states? Why isn’t she winning any of the numerous recent contests even though she has high national poll ratings and has won other contests? Very confusing.

What do you think?

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  1. Really?

    <

    p>Let’s see… they’re states Obama’s been playing well in. Duh. Hillary Clinton didn’t pick the primary calender.

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    p>I’ll take the candidate winning the big ticket states – Florida, California, etc. – over the one winning the small and mostly red states we’re simply not going to win in November. As much as I love the 50 state plan, this upcoming election is still going to largely hinge on the Floridas, Ohios and even New Hampshires of the country – all states Hillary’s either won or likely to win.  

    • I’ll take the candidate winning the big ticket states – Florida, California, etc. – over the one winning the small and mostly red states we’re simply not going to win in November.

      <

      p>I’ve heard this rational used to justify support for both candidates.  The other argument goes like this:  Pick the candidate doing well in the Red States.  The Blue States will be Obama’s in November anyway, and the Red ones are where we need to make headway. Doesn’t that make just as much sense?

      • The argument is about who can win in swing states. (In which I do not include California, but I will watch Ohio with great interest. And it’s a darned shame that the Dem’s decided to muck around with Michigan and Florida.)

        • No, there’s no way a Dem could win in Virginia… just ask Jim Webb.

          <

          p>1996
          Robert Dole 47.10%
          William Clinton 45.15%

          <

          p>2000
          George W. Bush 52.47%
          Albert Gore Jr. 44.44%

          <

          p>2004
          George W. Bush 50.73%
          John Kerry 48.27%

          <

          p>But yes, OH and PA matter.

    • I understand that people say this a lot, assuming that “winning in Virginia” = “winning in Virginia”, but I ask you: what reason do you have to believe that the candidate who wins a Democratic primary is more likely to win the general election?

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      p>In 2004, it was obvious that was no indication, because the candidate winning the Democratic primaries was winning it because of his supposed “electability”, and voters who choose their Democrat based on thinking he’s more electable are by definition solid voters for whoever the Democrats end up nominating.

      <

      p>This year electability is not the primary message of any candidate, so I can’t make that same case.  But can anyone make some case about why, say, winning the New Jersey primary or the Minnesota caucuses or whatever, indicates an ability to win that particular state in the general election?

      <

      p>(Forget Florida.  Winning by being the only candidate on the ballot clearly tells us nothing useful.)

      • All the candidates were on the ballot there.  It was MI where it was either her or Uncomitted (and maybe Dodd?).

      • And I have yet to see any data that shows a correlation.

        <

        p>I would say that getting more votes today in VA than all Republicans combined, in a swing state, is relevant!

      • but in addition (to the fact that they all were on the ballot in FL), there were more hillary voters in Florida than McCain, if my memory serves me correctly – and keep in mind that the dems weren’t even allowed to campaign in Florida.  

        • I still don’t get it.  What makes you think people who voted for Hillary in the primary wouldn’t vote for the Democratic nominee in November unless it’s Hillary?  None of this makes any sense to me.

    • I was waiting for the spin to come out.  If he’s expected to win in a state, it doesn’t matter!  It’s only the surprises that count!  

      <

      p>No, getting more votes than all Republicans combined today (@83% reporting for both) in a state with 1 D and 1 R senator, a D governor, but that went with GWB in 2000 and 2004 is not significant.  Just a small red state that Dems couldn’t hope to win in November 2008.

      <

      p>If you can convince yourself that Obama’s victory thumpin’ in VA is not a serious body blow to HRC, and a significant indication of Obama’s ability to carry some key red states, then I congratulate you.  

      <

      p>How will you spin Ohio and PA?  

  2. As the campaigns move around the country, the polls have been getting tighter. Many people in Ohio, PA, and TX, for instance, haven’t been following this like we have. When they’ve been polled they probably went with the name that’s most familiar to them.

  3. I want the whole thing to be over now.  I don’t want either Barack or Clinton to deride each others’ supporters, and I want to see all of us win in November by not having a McCain presidency, because the guy is nuts (possibly more so than Reagan and with an equal chance of having early signs of Alzheimers).  

    • focused on the democrats. Hillary has the brand, but Obama gets lots of attention…good for the general if he gets the nomination.

      <

      p>Why else do you think Huckabee is staying in? Crowning McCain at this point and coverage on the republicans disappears. They’re not amateurs in the RNC, they’re not going to let us own months of free media. So Huckabee hangs in there as long as possible.

      <

      p>Best for us, I think, is a deadlock which breaks right before the convention. I don’t care for whom at this point, both our candidates are fine with me.

  4. Haven’t we been hearing for some time that the week or two following Super Tuesday were going to be good ones for Obama?  Are we now going to hear how these wins are terribly impressive?

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    p>Just a week ago, the proprietors of BMG pooh-poohed HRC’s win in Massachusetts, despite the efforts of the governor and two Senators, saying “she was ahead all the while.”

    <

    p>So why should Obama victories in states in which he has been expected to do well suddenly be noteworthy?  Unless you’re just spinning, that is.

    • I think everyone acknowledged that Senator Clinton won MA in an impressive fashion. What I personally pooh poohed was that her victory was some kind of extraordinary achievement because Obama had been endorsed by our two Senators and Governor — as if she had somehow become the underdog and pulled off an upset. I stand by that assessment. Senator Clinton was favored to win MA according to early poll results, ran strongly, and did win.  That is impressive in itself, but not astounding looking at the contest in MA as a whole.

      <

      p>What is confusing to me is that Obama is winning so many states — all across the country. Since they are running so close in the national polls, I would have thought Clinton would win some of these more recent contests. I guess I didn’t realize how localized Clinton’s support was.  

      • Hillary Clinton wins a state in which she was favored for some time:  Not impressive.

        <

        p>Barack Obama wins a state in which he has been leading for some time:  Extraordinary and joyous evidence of the tidal wave of momentum sweeping across the country bringing the spirit of change and hope that, together, we can take our contry back and build a better tomorrow!

    • It’s a big margin, and exit polls suggest Obama drew a majority of voters from groups that haven’t been as strong for him earlier in the race.

      WASHINGTON (CNN) — Illinois Sen. Barack Obama pulled support from virtually all sectors of the voting public Tuesday on his way to defeating rival Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Virginia Democratic primary, according to CNN exit polling.

      Obama was expected to poll well among young voters, independents and African-Americans and he did — taking 60 to 70 percent of the votes in the first two groups and nearly 90 percent of black voters, the polls suggest.

      But he also was edging out Clinton among voters 65 and older, blue-collar workers and women, all groups that Clinton was counting on as the core of her support.

  5. I have to agree with what others are saying…the fact that Obama will most likely win the primaries today is no big surprise. It has been reported that he is the likely winner here for some time. Texas and Ohio are the next big states.

    <

    p>I’m a firm believer in the Audacity of Nope. The tides will turn again. Hillary will be back in this stronger than after New Hampshire in a few weeks.

    • because he keeps winning, Obama is doomed?

      <

      p>I guess this was part of the HC strategy all along:

      <

      p>”We’ll lull them into complacency until our voter-bots can pick him off in Texas and Ohio.

      <

      p> Bwaa-Ha-Ha HA!”

      <

      p>I don’t think so.

      • I never said Barack was doomed, I’m just suggesting that it’s not going to be a knock-out win for either candidate for the nomination. They’ve been going back and forth with the lead for a while.

        <

        p>It’s going to remain a tight race for some time to come, and then if/when FL and MI come into play…plus what the super delegates will do…there’s just way too many unknowns to make predictions.

        <

        p>And honestly, if he does win the nomination, it’s the lesser of two evils in my eyes…and McCain just might win out.  

        • the “legallove.org” vote is going to McCain if they don’t get their way in the primaries?   I hope you’re up for a 100 years in Iraq….

      • ….because he is winning, he is doomed.  Yesterday there were a number of Obama foot soldiers on all of the tv and radio talk shows literally arguing that he wasn’t the front runner now.  Why?  Because the front runner takes it up the #$%@**&% in the press.  By the beginning of next weeks news cycle the media is going to start scrutinizing him in a way that will be upleasant and is, frankly, a bit over due.  By next Friday he is going to wish that HRC had won in Virginia or Maryland.

          • ….there is a big difference between being the absolute loser and being a contender who slips into first place, particularly when the media has given you sweetheart coverage.

            <

            p>Have you ever seen a news cycle?

            <

            p>Why do you think the Obama campaign has been resisting front runner status?  

            <

            p>Let the next two weeks happen and I will eat my words if I’m wrong, but I am very confident that the media will be punishing Obama and loving on Clinton by a week from Friday.

  6. Clinton is on NPR stump speeching in El Paso, TX.  I have to say that although she is speaking forcefully, she sounds exhausted.  I am truly amazed at the stamina these candidates have.

    •  Up in NH, I got a chance to see a number of the candidates up close and I was amazed at how they soldiered along.

      <

      p>While we snipe around the edges, it’s easy to forget that the candidates are actual human beings as opposed to walking, talking metaphors.

      <

      p>I was in Portsmouth on the day of HC’s “tipping point tears” moment and actually saw her as she was approaching that restaurant.  By what I saw, I think she would’ve started bawling if you’d told her that her shoelace was untied.  I’d say the same of Obama who I saw up close that afternoon.

      <

      p>Bottom line: it’s amazing that these people don’t act more wacky when you consider the wringer they’re being  squeezed through.

      <

      p>

  8. Obama took a majority from groups that broke for Clinton on Super Tuesday.
    59% Women
    51% Seniors
    59% Rural Voters

    <

    p>Similar trends reported for VA (see comment downthread)

  9. Let’s admit that HRC was ahead in the polls in Virginia by a substantial margin just a few weeks ago.  That Obama flipped the equation and actually won by a significant margin is not a “duh.”  It’s a remarkable reversal.  

    <

    p>People are reading tea leaves about why that shift has happened particularly in the demographics that on Super Tuesday were assumed to be HRC’s solid constituencies – Latinos, working class whites, rural whites, white men, white women.  The exit polls show a change in Obama’s favor in all groups except white women. This does not bode well for the Clinton campaign, hence the shake up at Camp Clinton.

    <

    p>I am glad that Clinton supporters are now in favor of a 50 state primary schedule since just a half a year ago, Clinton was the prohibitive favorite and her people were talking about how effective stacking the schedule was so that she could be the presumptive nominee by Feb and start attacking the Republican nominee early.  I am thrilled that my Presidential primary vote in Massachusetts finally mattered (Obama won my beloved liberal Hampshire County, as did Bob Reich a few years ago, btw)even though HRC won the Commonwealth. Heck, the Virgin Islands, Hawaii, and Washington DC matter!

    <

    p>As voters become more familiar with Barack Obama (who is relatively new to the national scene) they generally appear to move toward his campaign.  Frankly I believe he has been helped tremedously not just by his caucus and primary (momentum) wins but by the time he gets afterward to deliver his “victory” speech – he utilizes this opportunity to great, soaring effect.  I remain surprised by how little other candidates have effectively used this same opportunity.  

    <

    p>One piece of advice for the Clinton campaign, don’t bother dumping the campaign staff, dump your speech writer.  Her best speech so far was her Virginia Jeff-Jack speech, and it appeared to be dear poetic moments cobbled together by a committee of wonks. I remain appalled by how pedestrian her speeches are and how they fail to best represent her. Because her speaking voice tends to sharpness and hard cadences, her speeches should counterpoint and balance by using softer consonants (a softer consonant does not make for a softer word), more aliterations, and shorter sentences (to break up the regional harshness of her Chicago accent, Richie Daley has the same problem). Why don’t her writers get that it’s not just the poetry of the words, it’s how well the poetry matches the candidate’s natural speaking style. They have to fit or you sound contrived and inauthentic. She should fire them; though I don’t support her, I don’t think it’s fair that her writers do not do her justice.

  10. Does anyone know of a good county by county map of the results of the Virginia Dem primary?

    <

    p>They had graphics up on CNN during the broadcast the other night, but I can’t find anything online.

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