The Clinton-Obama race is so tight, who the hell knows what will happen? Seems like a few more twists are inevitable.
But I can’t help but think about what Obama v. McCain would look like. (Robert Reich wonders the same, with a wonderful essay about “essential American stories.” )
Certainly Obama continues with “change,” and McCain continues with “ready to lead on Day 1.” That’s their brands.
My question: what will the Republican attack on Obama look like?
The Options
1. Iraq
“Obama will cut and run in Iraq.” I think McCain actually would like to start here, because he believes he courageously supported “the surge,” and that the “surge worked.” However, I don’t think it will work against Obama.
Why? Besides the policy reasons, Obama’s persona is not wimpy. I just don’t think people listen to Obama and feel “that’s Cindy Sheehan in drag.” I think Obama is happy to stick McCain with his “100 years in Iraq.”
2. Immigration
“Obama will let all the illegals go wild?” I just don’t see it happening as an ad campaign. McCain bucked his party by supporting Bush on the “comprehensive” approach. In fact, McCain has basically admitted he wouldn’t even vote for his own bill anymore. If he makes this an issue, he loses his Straight Talk brand.
3. Health Care
Obama = socialized medicine? They’ll try it, but it won’t stick. Here, the Obama Plan helps. While it ticked off BMGers and Krugman because it wasn’t universal-ist enough, at least won’t be an easy topic for McCain to win on. Seems like R’s would just skip it.
4. Economy
“Obama will raise your taxes, I’ll cut them. Obama will spend a ton on new programs, I have a career of fighting wasteful spending, even against my own party”
This is a very plausible approach. Still, Obama will have one advantage not usually available to D’s: “I’ll cut our spending in Iraq, that will save a ton; you’ll stay in Iraq forever.” So it’ll be muted.
5. Obama the drug-using soft-on-crime guy?
I don’t see McCain wanting to go here. But maybe he ends here by default? Or maybe the 529s — isn’t this the natural for them? Obama voted on some crime bills in Illinois state senate that could be twisted into some tough negative ads.
6. Other?
What do you think the ads and speeches attacking Obama will be like (if it fact he’s the nominee)?
UPDATED: Laurel’s comment below struck me the most….”Obama’s church, and his father, are concerning” may well be a Republican attack (one which Hillary would not face — it’s probably the essence of her I’ve Been Vetted argument”
Update 2: Dave S links to a London Times article that spells out 2 other elements of the personal Obama attack: corrupt Chicago pol (real estate dealing), and some association with a left-wing radical.
Trial lawyers often try to state their opponent’s case to make it less jarring. Political consultants usually oppose this, saying “repeating the attack is harmful.” But that advice led Kerry to disaster. I’d love to see Obama and his surrogates pre-empt this with free media and TV buys. A series of “They Will Say” ads before the Republican 527s can get them up on the air. Mute their impact.
First off, excellent thought provoking analysis.
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p>Now that that is out of the way I think McCain’s stronger argument on immigration is that of “fairness.” Something along the lines of ‘Americans waited in line, paid their taxes, yada yada yada in order to live the American dream. Obama wants to let illegal immigrants skirt all the rules and jump to the head of the class.’
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p>All logical responses aside I think this plays to the conservative base more than what you suggested.
Remember, McCain joined Ted Kennedy and George Bush on comprehensive immigration reform.
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p>Conservatives hated it, and basically during the campaign, got him to repudiate his stance.
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p>Now he reluctantly talks “enforcement first” to appeal precisely to those conservatives. If he goes from reluctant “enforcement first” to “full-on” enforcement first, it may help him with some voters but cost him some independents who see it as a flip-flop.
why confuse the message with fact though? Seriously, I think if he changes the message to one of equity that allows him to maintain/gain independent support. Everybody likes to see fairness/equity. Even if his current plan is not the messenger can carry that message.
Just look at Healey’s ads from 2006 for a preview of their crime strategy. If McCain won’t go there, 527s sure will.
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p>Also, listen to what Bush said about him “I don’t know much about him except he wants to bomb Pakistan and embrace Ahmadinejad” The Iraq issue won’t be strong vs wimpy but experience vs. dangerous naïveté. Expect them to use the phrase “Commander in Chief” more than “President” to keep people thinking about foreign policy and the military.
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p>And don’t discount the whisper campaigns of “he’s a secret madrassa-raised Muslim bent on taking over America — he doesn’t salute the flag and he took his oath of office on the Koran!”
I was at dinner with three college-educated people here in Massachusetts today. All three are convinced that he’s a closet Muslim. All three typically vote Democratic. The rumor has traction…all I”m saying.
Don’t get me wrong…it’s a disgusting rumor that frosts me. There are plenty of legitimate reasons why Obama is a poor choice for president, but this isn’t even close to being one of them.
make no mistake about it. george “macaca” allen firmly on the offensive for mccain is only a start. although tony snow delared racism dead, it is still a potent political tool and will be used. was it harold ford (a black man) who was smeared a few years ago by opponents showing tv commercials that implied that “their” white women were having sex with the Big Black Dude? it will get ugly.
… reaching across the Isle.
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p>Remember McCain Fiengold
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p>McCain Kennedy.
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p>He (McCain) proved he can do it and that will play well to the unrest with Obama’s lack of Experience.
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p>Also Commander and Chief. John McCain wins this one hands down. While I disagree with his position on the War I do believe McCain would have had the experience not have gotten us into Iraq in the first place.
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p>I don’t see McCain going Hyper Negative. The Conservative 501 3C’s will. However if Move On gets as shrill as it has this will play badly for Obama.
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p>Since Hillary is going to pull it off by one vote this is just speculative anyway.
“Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for Barack Obama if you found out that he is the father of two Black children?”
This one made my day!
* Decorated P.O.W. vs. middle name == Hussein
* Exploring for new American sources of energy vs. wants to raise prices of gasoline and nat. gas
* Sanctity of marriage and children vs. gay loving baby killer
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p>Doesn’t have to be fair, accurate, or responsible, or even from the campaign effectively. Is it effective at raising money or swinging so-called purple states? That’s what matters.
Democrats and Republicans may disagree to many issues, but one area where there is no disagreement is about the threat posed by islamofascism.
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p>Barack Obama speaks about hope, but hope alone will not stop those who want to destroy our way of life.
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p>Barack Obama was unwilling to take definite stances on legislation in the State Senate of Illinois. What makes you think he’s ready to take the hard positions that are required to defend our country?
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p>Remember, there will be another attack on US soil. It’s not a question of if, but when. And when that day comes, do you want an untested leader sitting in the oval office? Or do you want someone who knows what war is and has what it takes to defend this country?
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p>The answer is simple.
Just because this line of thinking has resulted in “only” a tie for Hillary, doesn’t mean that it’s a line that will fall flat in the general campaign.
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p>For the GOP version:
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p>
this was my response to the question posed, not my actual opinion… in case there was any confusion.
lest he be painted as a racist by various groups as the NAACP, and other groups that have rightly advocated minority rights for so many decades here in the United States. Nobody wants to be tarred as a racist, no matter who he or she is.
Republicans are skillful at appealing to racism such that the media doesn’t notice their fingerprints on it.
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p>When Republican voters hear that the NAACP called a Republican racist, they assume NAACP is just a bunch of whiny minorities who don’t want to work for a living.
at appealing to bigotry. Many Democrats are too, in their own way.
Those obxoxious emails making the rounds that either allege that he is a closet Muslim or that he belongs to a racist church. This will be 527 fodder, however. I’m sure neither the McCain campaign nor the RNC would sacrafice their reputations for this.
I dont want to jinx Obama, Bill Simmons of ESPN.com asked if the hypothetical 19-0 Pats would be better than the 86 Celtics, I said it’d be better than the 85′ Bears, the point is that the Giants in fact ended all those hypotheticals with their win and similarly we shouldn’t be asking these questions until we get a nominee. Obama is the frontrunner, as a supporter of his that makes me happy, but he hasn’t won yet lets not get ahead of ourselves.
The Clinton/Obama race is far from decided. The latest polls on Real Clear Politics show:
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p>Texas – Clinton up by 10.3%
Ohio – Clinton up by 17.3%
Pennsylvania – Clinton up by 16%
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p>I would say it’s a little too early to be contemplating McCain vs. Obama, when it is still quite possible that it will be McCain vs. Clinton.
Perhaps it is none too soon to be thinking about how McCain and the Rethuglicans will run against Obama. There’s a perception based on current polling and on long, previous contemplation of Hillary Clinton’s negatives that Obama is more electable.
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p>The discussion here suggests that that isn’t necessarily so.
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p>If Clinton gets the Democratic nomination, we’ll end up with a McCain Presidency for sure!! Not a good omen, imo.
Here is today’s email from Gary Randall, President of Faith & Freedom Network. His org seems to find a lot to like in Huckabee, but also urged people to support McCain in the WA caucus & primary. Emphasis mine.
Although the writer calls for people to seek knowledge about who Obama is, he clearly has attempted to incriminate him with his rhetoric. I like how he calls Kenya Obama’s “ancestral home”. Well true, but then so is the United States. But it just won’t do for anyone to think that he is a bi-racial Christian American.
as the case may be. Thanks for posting that nonsense, Laurel. It’s always good to know what the opposition is thinking. Nevertheless, it’s always upsetting when you learn of a Christian who fails to understand that whole “what about the plank in your eye” teaching, never mind completely missing the boat on freedom and faith. Oye.
Also infuriating was, in the version that I received, it said “go to Snopes.com” and learn for yourself. But if one actually went to Snopes, a well-known myth debunking website, they’d find that the email was a fabrication. Typical confidence trick.
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p>Why do so many Americans believe everything they read in an email forward, but when +90% of credentialed climate scientists say that the global temperature is rising and we can curb the future damage by reducing carbon emissions, they say it’s a hoax?
And just I was highly unimpressed by the Pelosi agenda the finer points of Obama’s are more Satanic than even Bush.
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p>It starts with HR 1302, a Global anti-poverty bill which is in reality taxation to form a global government.
Taxation without representation.
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p>Another is complete enforcement of Kyoto and a global carbon tax for all those who can least afford it. Remember China and India were named carbon exempt back in 1992 an thus the lead toy, anti-freeze toothpaste and contaminated food factories were built in the largest industrial gold rush in human history.
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p>The next proposal is a global gun ban. No guns for the next revolution. (See taxation without representation).
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p>Next up is the UN “Bio-diversity” project. Again these noble sounding aims are not what they seem. Biodiversity seeks to rewild 90 percent of America. I’m talking shutting off highway exits, cutting off access to rural areas and stuffing the remaining population into ugly, depressing and totalitarian mega cities.
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p>It’s still a write in for Ron Paul.
It’s how the supposedly impartial observers boost McCain. I just caught a few minutes of Larry King Live tonight, and in his Political Party! roundtable, wise old statesman-like David Gergen talked about how “Presidential” McCain looks.
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p>They are going to use “straight talk” and “maverick” with John McCain’s name so many times that low-information voters will never realize just how by-the-book conservative McCain is.
The antipathy Punditrry, Incorporated feels toward Hillary pales only in comparison to their love for McCain.
Well I agree that the DC press loves McCain.
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p>But how can McCain be a “by-the-book conservative” AND be loathed by many conservative leaders precisely because they say he is NOT a by-the-book conservative?
Bush and crew stage a Gulf of Tonkin event…or more accurately, a Persain Gulf event…provoking Iran or going to a “yellow terrorist alert” (we haven’t seen one on them since the ’04 election).
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p>All of which gets us all scared shitless and dramatically paints the contrast betweeen the veteran warrior and the wet behind the ears gey. Cuople this with the other hate crap people are throwing up (particulary the Muslim BS as opposed the the black/racist stuff) and you have one heck ofa hate campaign.
that McCain won South Carolina with a smaller percentage than he got losing to Bush in 2000. Basically, Fred Thompson & Huckabee split the angry-white-male vote there. Gene took that as a sign that there is more anger in that voting block now than in 2000, but they just didn’t have a single candidate to funnel their support to.
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p>Of course, in November, there will be a white man on the ballot against either a woman or black man (whose name isn’t from the English language), and if that block of votes could just be stirred up (maybe by some executions of Gitmo tairists), Republicans could feel sure about which way those voters would go.
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p>As bad a job as Bush has done, I don’t think the Democrats can count on this year being a victory.
Very interesting post, but there’s no way McCain will willingly bring up Iraq or immigration. Those are bad issues for him for different reasons (against moderates on the first, and the GOP base on the second). If he brings up the surge in the general, he’s making a mistake.
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p>The most effective attack McCain would make on Obama is on terrorism, which is closely linked to the experience argument that will be the centerpiece of his campaign. McCain will argue that it is risky handing over protection of the nation to someone with so little experience. He, on the other hand (he will argue), has the experience to deal with this critical threat.
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p>So Obama clearly would have to be ready to address this issue. I like the idea of using a “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself” type line to make the point that McCain’s fearmongering is just an example of the type of politics we need to get away from (though, of course, I’m not suggesting that will be sufficent).
At Digby’s Blog, Tristero has a list of techniques used by Cons. Worthwhile, I think. One tactic they used against Kerry was to insinuate things about his character and avoid his record. My guess is that’s how they would hit Obama… if it is Obama.
all he has is “Hope”. We are electing a President not leader of a Cult.
…. that like Ms Coulter you would vote for Hillary?