There’s a new poll out today by the American Research Group which has Hillary at 49% and Obama at 43%. An earlier poll taken two days ago had Obama at 47% and Clinton at 42%.
The poll consisted of 600 adults and breaks down like this:
Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton among men 48% to 42% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads Obama among women 55% to 39%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 52% to 40% (89% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 85% to 9% (7% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 50% to 44%.
It would be pretty great if Hillary took Wisconsin, but perhaps I’m biased. đŸ˜‰
Please share widely!
That must have been a different polling group. A week ago ARG had Clinton leading by 9. So even this outlier has Wisc trending Obama.
knowing the margin of error would help us decide if the state is trending Obama or holding Clinton. I took a quick look and didn’t find a marhin of error.
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p>Having worked in WI in 2004 I would suspect Obama would be leading so any poll that has it close is a plus for HRC.
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p>Disclaimer – I am a Clinton supporter, Clinton primary voter, Clinton NH, ME and RI volunteer, and my union has endorsed HRC.
ARG’s history in this election has been of over-valuing Hillary, and has an average miss of 8 points this election season. If SUSA agrees, then I’m buyin champagne, and preparing to jam the cork right near Chris Matthew’s tingly leg…
who gave Jeanne Shaheen a 35-point lead in NH before she announced, and the next month showed her down by 15? I’d take this particular group’s research with a grain of salt.
from RealClearPolitics.
if you take a look at the Wisconsin poll results from Pollster.Com, it seems the past 5 polls are trending Clinton momentum.
Of course, there are still about 10% undecided. So it’s anyone’s guess really.
You can’t compare different polls, using different methodology for trends. If you look at polls from the same organization, the trend is in Obama’s favor (not that I believe that either).
I think I’ve come to the conclusion that I hate polls.
Polls aren’t always reliable, either.
FWIW (not much), the latest ARG poll has Obama up 52%-42%, which is a big contrast to their earlier poll.
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p>I guess ARG wants to be able to claim for the first time all cycle that they were actually right about a poll…they win either way! Paraphrasing the poll results, it’s like a John Madden stereotype — “it’s pretty clear at this point that either Clinton or Obama will win Wisconsin.”