Numbers given after each poll are in this order: Clinton/Obama/Undecided (or Other)
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February 19:
Hawaii: 29 delegates at stake; no polling data available, but given Obama’s roots there, he should do very well.
Wisconsin: 92 delegates at stake; polls are all over the lot, with some showing Clinton in the lead, others pointing to Obama. Sounds like a real toss-up, but that’s a big improvement from just a few weeks ago, when Clinton was solidly in the lead.
Research 2000 2/13-14, 42/47/11
Rasmussen 2/13, 47/43/10
Public Policy 2/11, 39/50/10
Strategic Vision 2/8-10, 41/45/14
Average of these 4 polls, 42/46/12
If the “undecideds” are allocated in proportion to the declared preferences, Obama wins by 52.26% to 47.74%.
Washington: 97 delegates at stake, yet there has been little press coverage and no recent polls (since Edwards dropped out) except for SurveyUSA. Based on those 2 surveys it looks like a gimme for Obama, although back in October, he was barely on the map.
SurveyUSA 2/7-8, 45/50/6
SurveyUSA 2/2-3, 40/53/7
U of Washington 11/25/7, 44/29/27
Strategic Vision 10/6/7, 48/22/30
If the “undecideds” are allocated for just the 2 latest polls, Obama wins by 55% to 45%.
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March 4:
Ohio: 161 delegates at stake; polls consistently show Clinton with a strong lead.
Rasmussen 2/13, 51/37/12
SurveyUSA 2/10-11, 56/39/5
Quinnipiac 2/6-12, 55/34/11
Average of these 3 polls, 54/37/9
Allocating “undecideds” Clinton wins 60% to 40%
Rhode Island: 32 delegates at stake, very little polling data, but what we have is encouraging for Obama, even though Clinton is in the lead.
Brown University 2/9-10, 36/28/36
Brown University 9/9/7, 35/16/49
ARG 2/6/6, 34/0/64
Allocating “undecideds” of just the most recent Brown poll, Clinton wins 56% to 44%
Note the huge number of undecided voters just 3 weeks before the election. Note also that Clinton’s support has been steady over the past 2 years, whilst Obama’s support has grown by leaps and bounds. Several recent high-profile endorsements should help, but it’s a matter of getting the word out! Sign up to canvass or make phone calls by visiting the Obama website’s Rhode Island page.
Texas: 228 delegates at stake; Clinton leads but is under 50%, and Obama has gained most of the “undecideds” between the latest poll and the one 3 weeks earlier.
Rasmussen 2/14, 54/38/8
InsiderAdvantage 2/14, 48/41/11
ARG 2/13-4, 42/48/10
TX Credit Union League 2/11-13, 49/41/10
IVR 1/30-31, 48/38/14
Average of these 5 polls, 48/41/11
Allocating “undecideds” Clinton wins 54% to 46%
Vermont: 23 delegates at stake; no recent polling. We show a year-old ARG poll, fwiw, which probably isn’t much, with 44% in the “undecided/other” camp at that time.
ARG 2/4/7, 37/19/44
I’m sure ARG and/or others will be doing polling in Vermont over the next couple of weeks, but at the moment it’s a total crapshoot. Again, go to the Vermont page on the campaign website to find out what you can do.
Also, to receive email notifications of volunteer efforts being organized in Western Mass to support local efforts in Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island, sign up at http://www.mfw.us/invitation-t…
Altogether, there are 663 delegates up for grabs in these 7 contests. I’ll try to pull together a post within the next few days on the various current counts (not surprisingly, the two campaigns come up with different numbers, and several news sources have yet different counts) as well as the implications for the delegate totals after March 4 if the voting goes more or less as predicted by these (and later) polls.
I saw that the Berkshires did well for Obama…only part of the state that did outside Boston. Good job.
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p>Washington state has already happened for all intents and purposes, as the Democratic primary has no effect on delegate allocation.
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p>I haven’t seen any recent polls that show Clinton leading in Wisconsin. Obama’s desperately trying to game expectations in this one, but he’s been leding significantly in the last 4 polls. Anything under a 5-point victory is bad news for him.
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p>I expect because it is a caucus, he will cruise to Hawaii, even though Hillary has strong support among many Aloha demographics (retirees and Asian-Americans, specifically).
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p>I expect Ohio and Texas to tighten up, with Hillary losing both states by 4-7 points. I see Vermont and Rhode Island blowing in the wind, before settling for Obama by the same margin.
i really don’t see how Hillary will lose both Texas and Ohio by 4-7 points. Unless she bombs the debate on Thursday, which is not going to happen, I don’t see anything significant that would lead to that much reversal in two weeks. If anything, she will win both Ohio and Texas by 4-7 points easily.
The wildest card still in the deck is the Edwards endorsement. Not that I expect Edwards supporters to fall in line behind him, but it could be the only way to forestall the coronation Punditry, Inc. is planning for Obama. When you have opponents outspending you 4-to-1 in media markets, it’s tough to come out ahead.
It’s true. The caucuses allocated all the D delegates.
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p>It’s really, really absurd to hold a primary that will have no effect on delegates.
the state of wa is. by law the state must hold a presidential primary. however, the party isn’t compelled to use the results to allocate delegates. so you are correct that no dem dels will be allocated using primary results because that was done in the recent caucus. the wa-gop is using both the primary and a “caucus” (really a non-binding straw poll) to allocate their delegates.
I’ve been so focused on local efforts I haven’t had time to pay a lot of attention to other states (till now — we’re organizing a big push in western Mass to help out in Vermont).
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p>Still, I suppose a big score in WA would be a psychological boost…