I don’t know what insight we can glean into November 2008 by comparing the previous two primary elections with the current, but I will say that if Vegas is taking bets, bet on a record breaking turnout for the presidential election. What I do know is that these these numbers may have limited use. This is a unique year in which both races were originally wide open, perhaps limiting crossover voters. And because of this year’s primary shuffle, primaries are held at different times in the season with varying degrees of drop outs. One example: McCain faced Bush in 2000’s VA primary, but McCain was not on the 2000 Alabama ballot according to the FEC. That said, the numbers do tell us something.
8 years of malfeasant-at-best government has energized the populace; voter turnout is higher than the last two primaries almost across the board. As you’ll see above, both parties boast increases in primary voters. Mass Republicans can be proud of 17% growth from 2000. And Alabama Republicans showed up in force growing 180% from 2000; Alabama seems like it will be a GOP stronghold for some time to come.
But whatever victories the GOP can claim are drowned out by strong Democratic gains. I’ve already noted drastic differences in Dem vs. Repub turnout in blue California, Illinois, New York, and MA. Looking above we see that as the MA GOP votes grew by 17%, MA Dem votes grew 131%, gaining 757,006 more votes than the GOP.
Most interesting is the Bush red state of Virginia. Recently we’ve seen a blue trend with a Dem gov and Jim Webb flipping a red senate seat. The trend continues as Virginia hemorrhaged GOP voters into the Dem primary. 57% fewer people voted GOP vs. 2000, while the Dem votes soared close to one million, growing 146% from 2004. Furthermore, John McCain v.2000, who lost to W 350K to 291K, beat John McCain v.2008 by 50,000 votes. People in VA are less enthusiastic about voting for John McCain in 2008; the Dems won 685,485 more VA primary votes; the republican voting base shrank – Virginia is in play this November.
Missouri is also in play. The Dems outvoted the GOP by 235,214 votes. The number of MO Dem primary voters has more than tripled since the 2000. Not a guaranteed win, but in play.
I’d also throw in play Iowa, based on the record caucus turnout, and Louisiana, based on the 223,000 Dem voting edge and Bush’s response to Katrina. The voting edges in SC and GA give me hope for November, but I wont hold my breath. I see these states as currently red, but should not be written off yet.
I know higher voter turnout in the primaries does not equal a November win, but these numbers should make any GOP’er pessimistic. Which ever Dem candidate you dig in’08, momentum is on our side.
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Sources: Federal Elections Commission 2000 | 2004 and The Washington Post
because theres only 486,000 (R)’s and we exceeded that.
…the mass Gop is listed as having 498,962, which is 12,000 more than your number and 1,400 more that the number of 2008 GOP primary votes, 497,531. Keep in mind that 13,000 votes were cast for internet phenom Ron Paul. How many RP voters do you think will break for McCain considering RP calls McCain’s foreign policy “immoral”?
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p>But to answer your question, the latest figure I can find puts the number of Mass Democrats at 1,472,707.
Despite a incredible increase in votes, they didn’t pass the threshold of number of registered voters…you have to keep stuff in perspective. And the figure I used is direct from Torkildsen.
Barack Obama, the Ma loser, garnered more votes than all Republicans combined.
…that Republican politics has done more to energize Mass Dem voters than it has done to energize Republican voters.
I find a lot of motivation in the fact our national gov’t gives me a chance to help restore the good name of the Republican Party.
i hope you succeed. we need the gop to heal itself. so, how are you going about it?
…by quoting that flaming lib Ghandi, lol. (Kidding.)
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p>You have an honorable task ahead of you. You also have your work cut out for you.
it has a way of being abused.
Some, but certainly not all, of this growth can be attributed to the very tight race in the DP. On the other hand the Repub race has also been tight with not nearly the same growth.
In the races in which both parties show growth, except for Alabama, the Dem growth is far more impressive than GOP growth. Look at MO – 210 Dem growth v. 24% Repub growth. That’s triple 2000. MA doubled its 2000 and 2004 dem turnout. VA – more than doubled vs GOP loosing 50%. In GA Dem’s won 3.7 times as many votes as 2000, where the GOP gets 1.5% more.
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p>If the GOP doesn’t match this enthusiasm in Red states, forget about swing states, they will loose states that were safely red in the Bush elections.
with the Alabama numbers. Explanation or correction please?
now I get it. Please ignore the above.
…I should have added that Alabama was the only state in my list where the GOP outdrew the democrats, that’s why Alabama’s difference number is negative and in red.
I can extrapolate the future policies already. No doubt republican has become a four letter word in light of the last seven years but what of the “sweeping change” of 2006. What did we get out of that? Impeachment? No, we got an anti-terra bill, HR 1? Also more fascism in HR 1955 and S 1959. These bills are not aimed at terrorists, they are aimed at dissent, people participating in the democratic process.
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p>We loose because the perception of an opposition party has vanished, and that will only bring out the extremes of the “left”.
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p>Not being able to tell the difference anymore I have found truth, solace, answers, reality, community by using a few keywords.
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p>New World Order, Bildeburg, CFR, Tavistock, Georgia Guidestones,Canamex and a host of others.
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p>And yes I voted for Ross Perot too!