This leaves (in this rather simple over view for which I expect to get slammed in the comments) the Middle. Those under 50K incomes, High school grads, Blue Collar types (who as we saw in Vegas didn’t stay with where their union leadership told them to stay) or others who tread (and Vote) lightly who think Hope is a great sermon topic provided no one actually asks them to change in support of it.
In other words “Reagan Democrats” who could live with Clinton but would likely chose McCain over Obama because McCain reminds them of the Guy on the Football team every one liked while Obama was the Class president that didn’t hang with them. I see them as (reluctantly) staying with Hillary because while they haven’t liked the record of McCain’s team in the last seven seasons they are not ready for a new set of rules changing the way the game gets played.
I realize National Polls are all over the who matches up/who beats whom argument but till there is a nominee I would discount them.
However just my opinion but Hillary Beats McCain and Obama does not when the dust settles in late October on who really jumps ship.
For one the national polls are increasingly not all over the map – more often of late showing Obama ahead of McCain and HRC behind. Some of that is about who is up now and who is down so hard to draw conclusions from it but that is the most recent picture.
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p>Regarding the youth vote and affluent vote – certainly young people may not drift right but many will sit it out if Obama is not the nominee. She just can’t pull em out to vote while he can.
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p>When you talk about the middle you cite Reagan Dems, who no doubt will be a battlefield but you fail to mention independents – 30% of the electorate. In a McCain Clinton matchup she loses them big time. Obama has run strong with this group throughout and can make it competitive. Without the independents we lose and Hillary is our worst best for it.
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p>Hillary’s biggest asset is so-called experience, but McCain has far more of it than her. Obama can make it a change vs. experience race and I tend to think that the nation is ready for change and thus Obama in 2008.
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p>And calling a guy named Barack Obama the class president who didn’t hang with them is a little rich. Obama sounds smart but he does not sound like a prick or a dork. Why do you think young people like him. I’d think they’d be most turned off by a guy they saw as arrogant. And yet they love Obama because they think he’s cool. Old people on the other hand, they ain’t into cool so Obama has some problems with them, especially going against a geizer like McCain.
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p>Frankly, both candidates have match up problems with some key demographics but now that McCain is the nominee, this is a race to needs a change vs. more of the same dynamic and Obama is the best candidate for that race.
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p>Most independents tend Conservative/Libertarian. Progressive Independents are not as big a group and it is they who went for Obama. Hillary can pull some middle of the road Indies plus the progressives younger types who if they stay home after getting engaged where actually not that engaged and speaking of facts, while younger voters have staffed campaign offices they have not necessarily turned out to vote.
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p>Even in states with large turnouts it is still only double the usual paltry 20% of the electorate for a primary so in November there will be a larger turn out which is why the polling now is useless.
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p>Also
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p>
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p>Not at all. I work construction and to a man (and some women) Obama scares the S*** out of them (their words not mine).
Democratic in last four years (the notion that they are mostly conservative or libertarian is becoming dated) and Hillary can’t win em – they haven’t voted for her in the primaries and won’t in the general against McCain who is the one Republican who gets independents at all.
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p>And people have been discounting the young vote in Maryland and Virginia young voters almost doubled their percentage of the electorate from 8 to 14%. That matters. Those are new folks and if they showed up in the primary for Obama they will be much more likely to show up again if he is the nominee. That gives us a leg to stand on that we haven’t had in years. Clinton likely loses that added advantage that Obama brings into the race.
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p>And maybe on your construction site dudes are scared of Obama, but he’s been winning or drawing the white guy vote in most states. I don’t get why Obama would scare your co-workers. What is the reason for their views because it would be worth figuring it out and convincing them otherwise? I can’t believe its because they think he some smarty pants.
but I don’t for far more rational reasons. Obama doesn’t do it for me. Time to let a woman run things and failing that the Experience thing will weigh heavily across demographics.
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p>Be clear that McCain will not do the hate mongering Campaign that sunk Moderate Kerry Healy.
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p>As to indies going more progressive just look at Oganoskis run in the 5th Congressional where independents make up 49% of the electorate.
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p>And I believe they are the white collar white males Obama draws. The Blue Collar is Hillary’s demographic and they will go McCain over Obama because of the experience thing.
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p>Don’t get me wrong the turn out for change is exciting but it should be based on something other than I hate George Bush and Obama is the furthest thing from him.
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p>2. Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich write ins.
But you didn’t consider the people who just won’t vote, period. Nobody’s suggesting the fundies will vote for HRC if McCain is nominated… they just won’t vote. They’ll be unenthusiastic over “their” nominee, and unenthusiastic people have better things to do than vote.
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p>McCain will lose a large chunk of the right-wing vote unless he chooses Huckabee as his veep (and that may not be enough).