now it says “obama wins MS”, but when in linked it said he had declared victory. oops! someone at the NYT website got a little too excited about their obama!
hlpearysays
Time’s Michael Duffy sees ominous clouds on the horizon for Dems considering results of Mississippi primary…
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p> “Broken down, the Mississippi vote had an unmistakable racial descant – and unmistakable limits for Obama. Exit polls revealed once again an emerging racial divide that has opened in the Democratic party between whites who tend by healthy margins to favor Clinton and blacks who overwhelmingly favor Obama. African Americans comprised nearly half of the Democratic vote in Mississippi – and 90% of those voters, according to exit polls, pulled the lever for Obama, his strongest showing yet among African Americans. But Obama did poorly among whites, winning only 30%, according to exit polls. While this split was visible in Alabama and the border state of Tennessee earlier this year, it was visible in Ohio’s primary last week, too.”
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p>”Mississippi is one of the most reliably Republican states in presidential elections. Only a Democrat who could win 35 to 40% of the white vote, while holding onto a lopsided percentage of blacks, could put the state in play in a head to head match with a Republican in the fall. Obama’s 30% showing in the primary against Clinton falls short of that target.”
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p>Those are just 2 points Duffy makes…for the whole interesting article go to web address cited below…
The fact that most whites who were exit polled did not vote for Obama does not necessarily mean they or other white voters would not vote for him in the general election.
hlpearysays
according to HR Kevin…he must know something that Time magazine’s army of reporters and columnists are missing…please share…
Time is an excellent example of the vapidity of the Mainstream Media
Bill Clinton lost AL by ~7 points in ’92 and again in ’96. I don’t see Hillary faring much better. Obama clearly can get the minority vote out in AL, but I don’t see him having much of a chance in AL in November either.
AL last voted for a (Southern) Democrat in 1976; Reagan beat Carter by a hair in 1980 and it’s been downhill from there.
Bush got a higher pct. of the 2004 vote in AL then he did in his home state of Texas (62.5% vs. 61.1%).
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p>While I found the racial split in Tuesday’s voting troubling, AL unfortunately doesn’t matter in November. Given the trends of the last 30 years, any Democrat who managed to win a general AL would do so while winning the national in a landslide.
Yes, I very impressively pulled stats for the wrong damn state. I’m blaming my 6 month old, who isn’t sleeping well these days!
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p>Fortunately for me, the history of MS elections is almost identical to AL- Clinton lost by ~5% and 9%, Carter barely pipped Ford in 76, only to lose narrowly to Reagan in 1980, etc.
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p>So do a global replace on “AL” in the parent with “MS”, move a couple numbers (Bush only got 59.4% in MS, so he didn’t fare as well as his home state of TX), and it’s good to go.
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p>By the way, I found this article on the Time site. An excellent example of vapid prognostication. I especially liked:
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For better or for worse, today’s results are likely to be picked over again and again for any kind of trends – blacks, whites, men, women, young, old – as Misssissippi is the last state to vote for the next six weeks, until Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary.
hrs-kevinsays
An opinion piece in Time magazine jumps to conclusions. What is the big deal. Is Time somehow “holy writ”? And do you want me to start quoting back to you crappy articles from Time to disprove your points in the future?
freshayersays
…Another Hollywood starlet in drug scandal reported when 69 year old Dawn Wells who played MaryAnn on the 60’s hit Gilligan’s Island was
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caught with marijuana in her car. She was sentenced Feb. 29 to five days in jail, fined $410.50, and placed on probation after pleading guilty to one count of reckless driving. Wells, 69, was arrested Oct. 18 as she drove home from a surprise birthday party that was held for her
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p>Aaaahhhhhhh. Looking forward to the 6 weeks of nothing to say on the Primary race so important stories like this can get more broadcast.
laurelsays
to hear about Dawn Wells for a change. I’m tired of hearing about the antics of the same 5 or 6 30-somethings. Let’s get some fresh dirt on the celebrities of yesteryear!
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p>And for heaven’s sakes, can we decriminalize marijuana already?!
Although just 14% of precincts reporting so far.
were calling it for the otherO-man when only 8% pcts were reporting. Must be some amazing poll exit data.
story
now it says “obama wins MS”, but when in linked it said he had declared victory. oops! someone at the NYT website got a little too excited about their obama!
Time’s Michael Duffy sees ominous clouds on the horizon for Dems considering results of Mississippi primary…
<
p> “Broken down, the Mississippi vote had an unmistakable racial descant – and unmistakable limits for Obama. Exit polls revealed once again an emerging racial divide that has opened in the Democratic party between whites who tend by healthy margins to favor Clinton and blacks who overwhelmingly favor Obama. African Americans comprised nearly half of the Democratic vote in Mississippi – and 90% of those voters, according to exit polls, pulled the lever for Obama, his strongest showing yet among African Americans. But Obama did poorly among whites, winning only 30%, according to exit polls. While this split was visible in Alabama and the border state of Tennessee earlier this year, it was visible in Ohio’s primary last week, too.”
<
p>”Mississippi is one of the most reliably Republican states in presidential elections. Only a Democrat who could win 35 to 40% of the white vote, while holding onto a lopsided percentage of blacks, could put the state in play in a head to head match with a Republican in the fall. Obama’s 30% showing in the primary against Clinton falls short of that target.”
<
p>Those are just 2 points Duffy makes…for the whole interesting article go to web address cited below…
<
p>http://www.time.com/time/polit…
The fact that most whites who were exit polled did not vote for Obama does not necessarily mean they or other white voters would not vote for him in the general election.
according to HR Kevin…he must know something that Time magazine’s army of reporters and columnists are missing…please share…
<
p>While I found the racial split in Tuesday’s voting troubling, AL unfortunately doesn’t matter in November. Given the trends of the last 30 years, any Democrat who managed to win a general AL would do so while winning the national in a landslide.
Yes, I very impressively pulled stats for the wrong damn state. I’m blaming my 6 month old, who isn’t sleeping well these days!
<
p>Fortunately for me, the history of MS elections is almost identical to AL- Clinton lost by ~5% and 9%, Carter barely pipped Ford in 76, only to lose narrowly to Reagan in 1980, etc.
<
p>So do a global replace on “AL” in the parent with “MS”, move a couple numbers (Bush only got 59.4% in MS, so he didn’t fare as well as his home state of TX), and it’s good to go.
<
p>By the way, I found this article on the Time site. An excellent example of vapid prognostication. I especially liked:
<
p>
An opinion piece in Time magazine jumps to conclusions. What is the big deal. Is Time somehow “holy writ”? And do you want me to start quoting back to you crappy articles from Time to disprove your points in the future?
…Another Hollywood starlet in drug scandal reported when 69 year old Dawn Wells who played MaryAnn on the 60’s hit Gilligan’s Island was
<
p>
<
p>Aaaahhhhhhh. Looking forward to the 6 weeks of nothing to say on the Primary race so important stories like this can get more broadcast.
to hear about Dawn Wells for a change. I’m tired of hearing about the antics of the same 5 or 6 30-somethings. Let’s get some fresh dirt on the celebrities of yesteryear!
<
p>And for heaven’s sakes, can we decriminalize marijuana already?!