Here, I’m addressing those genuinely concerned about the general election. I’m not addressing anyone who believes bad for Obama=bad for America. But seriously, what’s the hurry?
We are right now 8 months out from the general election. Even if we go all the way to the last event, Puerto Rico’s primary, we’re still 5 months away from the general. (By the way, CNN doesn’t have Puerto Rico in its menu of primary/caucus previews and results. Nice work, boneheads.) That is about 130 days.
- One hundred thirty days seem to me enough time to raise money from energized Democrats;
- One hundred thirty days seem to me enough time to make amazing primary/caucus organizations into superlative general election organizations;
- One hundred thirty days seem to me enough time to film new tv ads;
- One hundred thirty days seem to me enough time to badger undecided voters in swing states, morons who sometimes don’t make a decision until the day before, no matter what you do or say;
- One hundred thirty days seem to me enough time to customize the DNC’s research and arguments about the McCain’s lack of readiness to lead America;
- Two hundred days seem to me enough time to for anyone useful in a general election to get over their problems from the primary and prove they care about America and not just their candidate.
Meanwhile, McCain is hanging there. He can’t campaign against two very different people. What if goes all Johnny Hopeful to pace Obama, and Hillary wins on realism? Or McCain and the Republicans run against business as usual, and Obama carries the day?
A lot can happen in the two months between the conventions and the general election. For instance, the polls can swing 22 points in either direction. Crazy events can happen. October surprises happen in October, no matter when the parties have chosen their nominee.
Have patience. After all the hand-wringing over the compacted primary schedule, we’re having one heck of a (largely civilized) fight for the nomination. Many people have yet to speak their peace.
We’ll have our one hundred thirty days. For now, we need to allow the people of Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Kentucky, Mississippi, Wyoming…and all the others…to have their say.
i think you have a particularly good point when you say it is to mccain’s disadvantage that he doesn’t know yet who he will be running against, and so can’t plan accordingly. meanwhile, the dems know exactly who we are running against, and can go on the offensive forthwith.
in the Senate. It would be a good time for him to push some legislation as the President in waiting, calling Obama and Clinton back to the Senate for some votes. Or would that just be dangerous? Should he just lay low?
The only thing a Senate record is really good for is as a club for opponents to beat you with…nobody wins elections because they sponsored a bill that became law. Even if their name is on it, most people hardly notice.
he’s too worried about being forced to make uncomfortable votes. Besides, apparently it’s not a high priority for McCain.
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p>That being said, the best not-yet-stated benefit of the prolonged primary is that it builds solid organizations in states that otherwise don’t get attention until the end. Democratic candidates from President down all benefit when two strong campaigns are organizing and mobilizing in the primaries. Those efforts will only reap benefits come November.
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p>So look out PA, here we come!
… so we have a base of operations. My wife and my Korean War vet father-in-law campaigned for Rep. Patrick Murphy (PA) in 2006, who unseated an R (Fitzpatrick).
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p>We are currently figuring out when we can get down to PA between now and April 22.
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p>We have no compunction about using our four cute kids for political advantage.
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p>As only five of us can walk (the baby- our last, I promise- will be stroller bound), we can only spell out O-B-A-M-A @ 1 letter for T-shirt. So I guess we’ll campaign for him.
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p>(Note: intended as parody re: accusations that Obamaniacs like myself are shallow)
you can also spell out HILL! đŸ™‚ or even I [heart] HRC đŸ˜€
Yes indeed we have options, thank you for those ideas.
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p>But the Obama idea incorporates more of our family’s initials, so we’ll stick with that.
…is how much coaches like to keep their starting quarterback under wraps as long as they can. Of course, you can’t do that when the choices are Tom Brady or Some Guy, but when they can hide it with some credibility, they do…
McCain’s said he’s going to wait until the month leading up to the convention to announce his running mate. He’s probably got two lists, one for each Democrat, and waiting until he knows who we nominate. They will be two very different general elections, and really the GOP can only solidify the base or attack both Dems, dividing the resources. I think the long primary is good, especially for letting all the states vote. I’m just getting tired of it, and the 7 weeks until Pennsylvania are going to be like all of last year over again. Florida and Michigan having contests sooner will make it more real, keep the discussion on actual voters voting instead of weeks and weeks of spin.
I’m not saying that it’s a complete disaster for the campaign to continue — at least if it doesn’t go much beyond PA — but it’s clear that the current situation helps McCain at least to some extent.
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p>While you are correct to suggest that Democrats will hve 130 days to do all the things you mention, McCain will have 130 days and more to raise money, not spend it, and work on his general election strategy. In short, if 130 days is plenty of time for US to do whatever we need to do, that time (and more) is at least as valuable to McCain.
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p>Am I saying he’ll win? Certainly not. But the longer the Democratic race drags on, the better it is for him. I foir one certainly hope this doesn’t go to the convention, or we will almost certainly lose in November.
sspecially if its brutal starts to hurt us. We start making the case for the Republicans and McCain can just look above it all. I think we are buying into the politics of hope if we don’t think a tough race on the Dem side is not in McCain’s interest. My sense is he certainly thinks so.
… there has been an outcry that the Conventions are staged infomercials with (deservedly) less and less coverage by the MSM, coming off like an aging rock stars comeback tour at $200 a ticket. We all know the tunes and can sing along but take off our faded tie die shirt the next day and hang it to the back of the closet where it has been and go back to reality in the morning.
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p>This is exciting!!!!
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p>No one enjoys a pitchers duel because it’s boring (which is what you would have with both nominations settled right now). It’s a high scoring homerun bashing game with the score swinging from one team to the other and that brings in the crowds.
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p>People are engaged, they are debating (just look at the give and take on BMG alone) they are full of interest and opinions.
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p>The fractured and unbelievably terrible voter system is front and center and things like the national popularity vote movement are actually gaining ground. The fracas over super delegates has energized the move to have only citizens vote’s count (my what a novel idea!!). The caucus system has been uncovered for what a farce it is.
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p>Ah yes then there is something about an African American, a Senior Citizen and a Strong Women running!!!
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p>This is good for our Democracy.
I love a pitcher’s duel. I think you’ll find that many baseball fans* do. One of my favorite games of all time was when I was in Fenway for a Pedro Martinez-Bartolo Colon duel in 1998. Sox 1, Tribe 0, No relief pitchers.
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p> * as opposed to home-town fans… people who love the game itself.
This was the best game I’ve ever seen live, and no one got to third base until the 9th inning.
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p>but I’ll leave it alone…
I was at a wedding, watching the game at the hotel bar with everyone else. Pedro was gassing and I think hit two people in the ninth, was throwing the ball all over the place, but got the job done. Unlike Clemens.
That was a great game that had me on the edge of my seat.
Pitching is more of a thinking person’s position.
… was the time I went to the Lone Pine International http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L… 1976 Grand Masters Chess tournament in that High Desert town below the Sierra Nevada mountains where I got to see Tigran Petrosian http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T… that unconventional and wily Soviet Union citizen win with the $8000 first prize, with the lowest winning seven-round score in Lone Pine history.
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p>Now that was a thinking person’s game.
… on who prefers a hitters game to a pitching duel.
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p>For me their exciting in the sports news highlights but boring to watch.
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p>But maybe since my time of passion for the game was with the 80’s Oakland “A’s” with the emergence of sluggers Mark McGuire, Jose (the jerk) Cansenco, short stop Walt Wise (clutch hitter) and others when manager Tony Larousa was seasoning all his young players by bringing in Veterans like Don Baylor, Rickey Henderson, Dave Henderson and Reggie Jackson to pass on their experience to them (as well as contributing their hitting prowess) to the team. Though the most underrated pitcher of that era was Dave Stewart (A’s) who had 5-20 game + years in a row but someone else always had one or two more wins each of those years to capture the Cy Young award.
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p>Wait……… did I just give an argument for why the young but talented upstart would benefit from being VP to the Seasoned Veteran?
Baseball is best when the tensions grows and you know any one hit can make all the difference.
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p>The A’s did have a nasty team back in the late 80s. Swept the Sox twice I believe.
Midre Cummings (sp?), solo shot around Pesky Pole.
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p>I remember it vividly.
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p>Great idea. Thank you.
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p>So how do we wean ourselves from spending too much time speculating and commenting to each other and………..
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are going to make me crazy! This is, without question or doubt, the MOST IMPORTANT election of any of our lifetimes. Politics is not a sport. It’s a deadly serious (really f****ed up) process that is either going to result in a positive outcome or not. I would like the candidates to seem to care as much about this as their rhetoric suggests. That this primary is viewed as a a fight between two personalities rather than about fixing the damage waiting to be repaired is one of the reasons why I want it over now. Rather than waste time and energy on which campaign is going to piss the most people off when neither can achieve the number of delegates needed, I’d rather see them flip a coin and become a team against the real threat — another four years of Iraq killing, Halliburton and assorted corporate giveaways, warrantless wiretapping, recession, global warming, destruction of the middle class, Gitmo, trillion dollar deficits, renditions, and all the other assorted horrors that have been heaped upon is. Why, if everyone cares so much, do we have to waste 130 days on a pissing contest? I couldn’t care less which one wins the most votes/delegates/pissing contest. I want everyone’s eyes to be on the prize — a Dem in the White House. Neither candidate is going to get us anywhere near universal health care despite the rhetoric. The best we can hope for is that somehow we get an end to the war, the Supreme Court isn’t packed with more conservatives, the deficit doesn’t continue to explode and the world might not hate the US as much. As a realist, I’m perfectly happy to accept that and vote for whomever isn’t going to continue the Bush legacy.
but the problem is that
doesn’t fairly represent the thinking of either candidate at this point. so while we’re waiting, i’m going to enjoy standing back and watching the remainder of the country have a voice for a change.
….. that my one throw away sports analogy (seriously no pun intended just then, I didn’t even pick it up till I previewed the reply) exploded into a lot of testosterone generated one upsmanship.
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p>More arguments on why we need a woman to lead us.
Every election where we did not know the nominee until the convention was a loss for the Democrats.
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p>1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988 were all terrible years for Democrats who all lost in LANDSLIDES because the resources they needed to win for otherwise close elections were squandered on party infighting.
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p>This is not unique to Democrats, the big reason Gerald Ford who was a quite popular incumbent lost is that he had to fight of Ronald Reagan which let Jimmy Carter close the double digit gap in the polls and come neck and neck with Gerry for the rest of the general election.
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p>Similarly the war is fading from memory and McCain recent scrutiny aside still polls well with independents and moderate Dems. We need to be reaching out to those people! Instead both sides are now arguing and fighting over who plays better to the base since the primary election drags on. This gives time for McCain to fundraise for the general and he will have a huge lead over the Dems if the primary continues, and it gives him time to define BOTH of his opponents and let them define each other before the general.
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p>Look at the 1980 example, Reagans most effective attack ads were just videos of Ted Kennedy attacking Carter. The same tactic can be used by McCain against the eventual nominee.
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p>Similarly in 1984 Mondale ran out of money trying to beat Gary Hart and was at a huge disadvantage financially when the general started and got killed in ads by Reagan. More importantly Mondale had to move to the far economic left of the party to win over the superdelegates and moved frankly into unelectable left field where he got creamed. Reagan was not invicible like boneheaded pundits now claim, at several points in 84 a generic Dem was beating him in polling. It was the divisive primary that lead Reagan surge ahead.
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p>In 1988 Dukakis had to give Jesse Jackson prominence at the convention which scared white swing voters with his radical message. Additionally it gave Bush time to define Dukakis before he could.
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p>Lastly your point about McCain being unable to define the nominees is really off base, since he can in effect let them define each other while he can also just attack generic Democrats and attack either one as a liberal and he can use their own statements to beat them over the head with.
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p>Its gonna cost us the general election to continue it and I honestly am close to tears thinking about how we can blow really easy contests with our own incompetency.
To skip a whole point-by-point: these guys lost on their own nickle (more’s the pity), not because of being weak at the convention.
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p>We will know who the nominee will be before Denver. But probably not until after Puerto Rico.
no regrets he lost, I mean.
had nothing to do with the faux Massachusetts Miracle or that ridiculous ride in the tank, helmet and all?
Or his less than human response to how he would feel if his wife was raped and murdered? I was in my late twenties then and I was embarrassed for the guy. I know that’s probably heresy among some of the BMG crowd, but facts are facts.
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p>The fact is, jconway – sometimes the nominee isn’t a good sell countrywide, no matter how much time they have prior to the convention, which brings me to this comment:
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p>You’re right. I think any time the part moves to the “far left” they risk losing the more centrist or conservative part of the party. That’s worth remembering when people start insisting that only “progressive” Dems (I still haven’t quite figured out exactly what that means yet) should have certain seats.
are orders of magnitude better than McBush. Why can’t people see that? Holy shit. People on this site are getting as bad as the dimwitted cult-of-personality fanatics on Daily Kos.
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p>Not speaking to you specifically, Sabutai, just venting in general.