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Despite Reaching out Deval’s Approval Numbers Continue Nosedive

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UPDATE: Rasmussen out with confirming poll 31% Deval is doing Good to Excellent Job, 66% Deval doing fair to poor job.  Oh and Ogonowski keeps Kerry to 53% with a whole lot undecided this early in the campaign.  The summer and fall is going to be fun.

Despite an all out public relations push over the past few weeks, where Deval Patrick has crisscrossed the state and reached out to his base via Doug Rubin, his numbers are continuing to head south and fast. Jon Keller is reporting that Deval Patrick’s approval ratings are the lowest they have ever been.

The second week of April was, by the roller-coaster standards of the Patrick era, a pretty good one for the governor. He won legislative approval for some of his long-sought corporate tax hikes, touted progress on several job-development initiatives, and won plaudits for a widely-covered speech on the economy. But when Survey USA went into the field the weekend of April 11 for its regular tracking of the governor’s job approval rating, the results marked an all-time low.

Here are the numbers, just reported to us by Survey USA today. They show Patrick winning approval from an anemic 41% of registered voters, while an astonishing 56% give thumbs down.

A special survey we commissioned with a smaller sample on April 9th had the spread at 41-49%. But it’s probably better for direct comparison purposes to match these results up with the last 600-adult tracking poll taken in mid-February (before Bookgate).

Back then, Patrick’s approval/disapproval was 47-45%, not great, but not that bad. But now, his disapproval is off the charts, especially among men: 61% of them now disapprove of his work, up from 47% in mid-winter. All age groups are markedly less satisfied with Patrick’s performance now than they were two months ago, none more so than the 35-54 demographic, where his approval has collapsed from 44% to 30% and his disapproval has jumped an eye-popping 18 points to 68%, George W. Bush-like numbers. Democrats are losing patience, too; his 61-31% spread of February has dwindled to 53-44%. In the ideological categories, moderates continue to desert Patrick. And get this: even liberals, who approved of his work by a whopping 70-25% spread back then, are now evenly divided on the topic. And one final note: with the warning that they’re only about 20% of the sample in each survey, a relatively small slice that could skew the numbers somewhat, voters in southeastern Massachusetts (including the Cape) seem to be especially alienated. His rating there was 47-44% in February; now, it’s 31-66%.

Looks like contrary to Charley’s analysis the Phoenix was still spot on.  

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Comments

  1. that a) incumbent politicians rarely, if ever, see approval ratings above 55%… I doubt these are out of whack with most Governors across the country.

    <

    p>and b) the Governor’s just started his touring around the state and reaching out to his base. Just like it took time for those events to amount to anything during the election (heck, the April before the election, about half the state or more had never even heard of the guy), it’ll take time for these events and discussion to make a meaningful impact in approval rating numbers.  

  2. I reviewed the latest SurveyUSA results on Jon Keller’s blog this afternoon. My initial response is one of caution – while I respect Jon and his work in this area, I am also aware of other recent surveys that show different (and better) approval ratings for Governor Patrick. Unfortunately, these polls are not public (I understand the fact that I am referencing numbers that are not public may lead to some skepticism about this post, but I felt that it was important to at least let the BMG community know that there are other recent numbers out there.)

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    p>I think the best way to view the SurveyUSA result is to see it as one data point – I would recommend reserving final judgment until other public polls either confirm or contradict the SurveyUSA poll.

    • with all due repsect Survey USA is the only organization that on a regular basis polls the Governor’s approval.  Care sharing with us the polls you reference?

      • Why would you give that a 4 it is a statement of fact. Survey USA is the only organization that polls approval rating on a regular basis, they do so once a month around the second week of the month.

      • Thanks for pointing to the Rasmussen poll. A full reading of the poll results show that 26% of respondents believe Governor Patrick is doing a poor job, 40% say he is doing a fair job as governor, 27% say he is doing a good job and 4% say he is doing an excellent job.

        <

        p>I think it is a leap to put, as you say, “a good portion of those that answer Fair in the disapprove category.” Another way of looking at the results is that 71% of respondents say the Governor is doing a fair or better job.

        <

        p>Either way, I know we have a lot of work to do, and we will continue to work hard to deliver on Governor Patrick’s agenda of jobs, education, and civic engagement.

        • based on the governor’s performance to date, I’ll take my cup half empty thank you.

        • failure to communicate with normal people.

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          p>The fact that you have to defend yourself and play kissy face with a left wing blog is testimony to your boss’s weakness.

          <

          p>The entire campaign was run on BS “together we can” ,with really no realistic solutions. You were given a chance to deliver the BS brand after Reilly self destructed but have failed to deliver. You can’t even get through legislation with your own party.

          <

          p>My advice is to stop the crybaby act, get some brass ones and start kicking some butt,otherwise this is a one term gig.  

  4. And no, it’s NOT all me pouring poison into the ears of innocents!

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    p>MANY Cape Codders fell in love with Deval – they absolutely believed his property tax rhetoric.  Property tax is a huge issue for seniors here.  Gas prices have always been bad, and there’s no public transportation, groceries cost more, etc.  Don’t forget, Yarmouth is the home of Christy Mihos, who promised to add a whopping 40% more to local aid for property tax relief!

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    p>We get screwed over by EQV based formulas for Ch. 70 and Lottery aid.  Our median income is comparable to Whitman, which gets 40% of its school budget from the state – we get 14%.  So – all increases fall directly on residental property tax and small businesses.  Which is why they wanted to believe so badly that Deval was telling the truth.

    <

    p>Recently, a front page headline of the Cape Cod Times reported that the Cape sold $115 million in Lottery tickets – and got back a little less than $11 million for all 15 towns.  Yet, towns with no lottery licenses at all share in that largesse.

    <

    p>Those who believed strongly are the most disillusioned.

    • Your picture of Cape Cod residents paying an unfair tax burden doesn’t quite jibe with reality.

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      p>When I look at Cape communities, I see average FY2008 single-family tax bills that aren’t all that high:

      <

      p>

      TownAvg billRate
      Dennis $1,967$4.35
      Yarmouth$2,395$6.23
      Eastham$2,571$5.08
      Brewster$2,853$5.55
      Wellfleet$3,035$4.72
      Harwich$3,052$6.05
      Falmouth$3,064$5.65
      Bourne$3,152$6.54
      Mashpee$3,377$6.58
      Orleans$3,550$4.52
      Truro$3,645$4.49
      Sandwich$4,101$9.61

      <

      p>(Barnstable and Provincetown figures are unavailable, probably because they adopted the residential exemption).

      <

      p>The state average was $3,962 in FY2007; 2008 numbers aren’t out, but odds are it has cracked $4,000. So all Cape Cod communities except Sandwich have an average single family property tax bill lower than the state average, the lowest town’s average bill is half the state average, the median town’s average bill is 75% of the state average, and the highest town’s average bill pays just a little over the state average.

      <

      p>The way you talk, people are paying $10k+ in property taxes. While I’m sure some are, most are not. Heck, someone with a $1m house is going to pay $5k in taxes in most communities — which is less than what I’m paying in Springfield. Why? Because the rates are so low due to the properties being valued highly.

      <

      p>It seems like you have your cake and you’re eating it too. You have assets worth a bundle. You have taxes lower than the state average. High property values “keep out the riff-raff”. Tourism brings an incredible influx of external dollars onto the Cape — I’d wager that most of those lottery tickets aren’t bought by permanent residents. Due to these external dollars, a much wider variety of businesses and professions can be supported. Even the Cape Cod Times is a better newspaper than most local rags.

      <

      p>On a side note, why don’t more Cape Code communities adopt the Residential Exemption, where owner-occupied properties are given a discount up to 20%, and the difference is made up by spreading the amount over the non-owner-occupied prope7rties?

    • I grew up in Whitman (better not be dissin my old stompin’ grounds, yahear?) and they have a regional school district.  That’s why they get so much state money.  Back when the high school got built, it was under a state program that aged regional school districts under the incentive of state dollars….soooo there ya go.

  5. First, he is a plagiarist who makes things up and has a shaky grip on reality, as discussed at length here. Second, ala Fox News he has a very specific GOP political agenda that he laid out in The Bluest State and seeks to advance through his day job.

    <

    p>Thus, for example, here we have, “Back then, Patrick’s approval/disapproval was 47-45%:” no citation, no context, just an assertion. Maybe the state Republican Party provided the data via his son, maybe he saw it reported on some blog, or a flyer stuck under his windshield wiper: who knows. The “anemic … astounding” wording speaks for itself.

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    p>Now, I know EaBo is a Patrick supporter and all, but this looks first and foremost like a partisan rant  

    • The data is from the last Survey USA poll and he says so. Here is a handy dandy chart from Survey USA.  Deval’s numbers are so newsworthy they made the front page of Survey USA.  As much as you want to denigrate Jon Keller he didn’t make the numbers up.  Those polled between 4/11 – 4/13 did.

      <

      p>

      • I didn’t say the Survey USA numbers were made up, I said Keller is not a credible source. He’s not. First, he’s not trustworthy, based on his record and as discussed at length here. I’ll pull the materials together for you when I have a moment, since they are extensive and perhaps it has been too much to follow.

        <

        p>Second, more fundamentally, Keller is pushing a specific political agenda — unapologetically and rather clumsily, in my view — as his hysterical phraseology, lack of attribution, and careful parsing of information in this story make evident. Consider all of the comments on this thread in totality, for example, and you’ll get closer to reality.

    • I’ve read the book – the whole book, not the BMG Cliff Notes.  It sounded to me like a plea to Mass. Democrats to remember and respect their roots, and not follow the Progressives over the cliff.

      <

      p>It is far from Republican; it isn’t een particularly conservative.

      <

      p>And, if you track back through the survey USA web site, you can get those ‘back then’ numbers – and there’s a link to the site in his post.

      <

      p>Can we put Keller’s son in the same class with Obama’s grandmother?  Relatives they may or may not agree with?  I assure you, someday YOU will have adult children – I have a self supporting and deluded married daughter who’s an Obama supporter.  Does that make ME suspect?  Hooey, I say.

      • If the progressives want to take us over the cliff then what metaphor might we choose for the Republican achievements of the past seven years: asleep at the switch when we got hit on 9/11, invaded a country that hadn’t attacked us, dragged our country’s good name through the mud by torturing people and putting them in jail without charge or trial, and transformed a thriving economy into one tumbling into recession. Keep up the good work, though: that Presidential approval rating could still drop into single digits.

        • Maybe I’m missing what national Republicans have to do with Massachusetts.  It has been many years since any Republican has even a tiny sliver of political power here.

          <

          p>Assuming that this is not intended as a non-sequitor, the failings of Republicans is rather irrelevant to the merits of so-called progressivism, except to the extent that “progressivism” has come to mean The Opposite of Whatever Bush Wants, and is thereofr likely to be just as wrong any given Bush policy, but for different reasons.

    • That part is right- he rarely grasps the real reasons for things on the Democratic side until smacked with a clue-by-four from actual Democrats.

      <

      p>But SUSA has proven itself a pretty dang accurate pollster over the past 3 years or so- I’ve looked at them long enough, and their numbers are within 3% around 90-95% of the time, just as claimed.  And their Undecideds in pollings mostly split 50/50, whereas for Gallup you can usually assume Undecideds as liberal side leaners and in ARG and Zogby (before it went flaky) polls as conservative leaners.

      <

      p>I see Patrick as what a best case Obama Presidency would look like.  Massachusetts solved/settled just about all its major internal problems and issues other than economic ones by the summer of 2006, and the bulk of its harassment and abuse and defunding by Republicans in Washington ended with the 2006 election.  Patrick, whether he likes it or not, holds a job defined by economic affairs- dealing with management, fixes to the extent possible, neglected massive capital costs, and his election by constituencies that have been particularly economically neglected.  If Obama gets the Oval Office in January 2009, he will have those same problems and supporter expectations– and a pile of bequeathed massive problems in areas Patrick has relatively minor ones if any.

      <

      p>Which on longer consideration makes a Clinton Presidency preferable to me- not because Obama is a bad person, but because he and his crew are precious.  Clinton and her crew are expendable and they know it, and she will expend herself on things that are worthy.  And the next Presidency is either going to be a procrastination that expends the country further (McCain), or an expending of a President and set of politicians and appointees on the positive work they do.  Or some achievement-deficient muddle due to lack of courage and inability to sacrifice themselves politically by the leaders and principals for things that demand that price.

  6. I never had illusi0ns ab0ut his ability t0  single-handedly recreate
    the “Massachusetts Miracle”.     He was trashed in the Gl0be regularly when he was running fr g0vern0r,  s0 it d0esnt surprise med t0 see the media
    take 0pp0rtunities t0 tarnish his image.      

    <

    p>He additi0nally  ticked 0ff a l0t 0f pe0ple and set him self up f0r ridicule with the Casin0 issue.   I think the media played this f0r m0re than it was w0rth.

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    p>He fervently supp0rts 0bama — naturally pissing 0ff Clint0n supp0rters.  This gives him a pr0blem in the state senate.

    <

    p>F0r pe0ple wh0 assumed he was g0ing t0 be s0me kind 0f anti-big business p0pulist —-He never pr0mised that.  He r0utinely in the campaign said that Dem0crats “have t0 get real ab0ut business”.  

    <

    p>He has t0 w0rk with H0use and Senate — I think it is clear that reducing the reliance 0n pr0perty tax is still a pri0rity.    He cant sw00p in and change the tax structure by fiat

    <

    p>PS
    S0rry f0r apparent typ0s.   My 0 key just died s0 I am using number 0.  

    • I w0uld als0 suggest that his supp0rt for 0bama and his nati0nwide r0adshow t0 dem0nstrate it pisses 0ff m0re than the H0use and Senate – it pisses 0ff the maj0rity 0f Dem0crats wh0 v0ted for Clint0n here in Mass.  And the 0perati0n Cha0s excuse w0n’t h0ld up here – Mass. was part 0f Super Tues., and the Republians were v0ting in THAT primary (rec0rd turn0ut for us, btw).

      <

      p>Th0se Clint0n v0ters – they’re the 0nes answering the p0ll questi0ns.

      • We know Republicans dont like him–esp the ones in orange jump suits.  That was not likely to change.    The more ultra-libs who mistook him for a radical lefty are probably disappointed but they aren’t big numbers.

        <

        p>Mass is Clinton country esp among the local leaders and media.  When he started pulling out all stops for Obama he probably lost a big % of his favorability.

        <

        p>PS:  I got a loaner computer — while I am waiting to find out if the damaged “O” on the keyboard is my fault 0r if it is c0vered by warranty.

  7. No piling on here, but a random thought or five:

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    p>First, I’ve said it before, the guy has great suits.  Seriously, snappy dresser.  

    <

    p>Second, his die-hard supporters don’t have glass jaws.  Governor Patrick sucker punches you with casino support, then a proposal that reduces corporate income tax, a book deal that threatens to turn him into a part-time governor, and you guys keep standing.

    <

    p>Police details?  He totally waffled on that one.  That’s ok.  It’s what all Governors have done.  Same ‘ol.

    <

    p>Good timing on the ong term Bond financing for roads.  The fact that Mass could borrow more without impacting its bond rating, was low hanging fruit just waiting for someone to notice.  It’s a one-time hit, but a big one.  Kuddos. Just hope the Politicians don’t porkify the spending but who am I kidding, of course they will.

    <

    p>But, THE keystone promise and let-down was — correct me otherwise — reduce the residential property tax load.  Other than the failed local option, there’s only one other way to do it: increase local aid.  I’ve not seen it.  You?  People who vote notice the local aid or if they don’t notice the local aid, they notice that their property taxes haven’t dropped.  Too soon to tell?  Maybe.

    • “snappy dresser”  – gratuitous crap.  

      <

      p>”sucker punches” :
      The casino bill is one of many ways the Governor has sought to increase revenue.  
      Close loopholes (yes, that’s exactly what they are) and promote corporate tax fairness.
      “Book deal” – more gratuitous crap.

      <

      p>Police details?  At least were talking about it.  I like the concept of “local” authority over these money pits.  

      <

      p>Roads, and especially bridges, need repair.  The Governor is getting the job done.  (It is easy to see your false logic: when the Governor does something well it must be because it is easy.  Wrong.  It is because he cares enough to do the job, unlike the past several administrations.)

      <

      p>This “keystone” of the reduction in the residential property tax load obviously depends on many factors.  Notice the word “promise” missing from your keystone?  That’s because the Governor didn’t promise you anything more than trying to do these kinds of things to the best of his ability.  He has been stymied on much more than the local (restaurant) option, and you know it, because you are one of the stymiers!  

      • This “keystone” of the reduction in the residential property tax load obviously depends on many factors.  Notice the word “promise” missing from your keystone?  That’s because the Governor didn’t promise you anything more than trying to do these kinds of things to the best of his ability.  He has been stymied on much more than the local (restaurant) option, and you know it, because you are one of the stymiers!

        <

        p>My final point is simple reasoning why his popularity is falling.  I think it’s principally because of this issue.  

        <

        p>Property tax bills just came out; they weren’t lower.

        <

        p>Local aid is being calculated now; it won’t be higher.

        <

        p>It doesn’t matter if he promised to do it, or promised to work hard at it or promised to the best of his ability….

        <

        p>Mr. Patrick has tied himself to the proposition that property tax ought be lower (a proposition which I think is debateable BTW), THEN he DIDN’T attempt any kind of alternative i) broad based alternative tax increase or ii) broad based cuts, either of which would be necessary to raise local aid.

        • Really know or care about local aid? I’m not convinced. Voters care about their taxes, for sure, and they care about their services, but the local aid machinations are inside baseball that only the pros follow.

          • …and try to pass that off.  You need to get away from the Boston City Council style of politics for a while.

            <

            p>Bob – over 2/3 of the state have annual town meeting around now – where the regular voter goes to set the town budget for the year.  Local aid – or its lack – is a HUGE subject.

            <

            p>Why do you think Deval and Christy harped on it so in 2006?

    • The property tax campaign issue may ultimately be Patrick’s achilles heel. There is nothing that he, as Governor, can do to actually lower property taxes. It’s true that he can push for local aid, and local option, and this and that, but more money flowing into town coffers from other sources will not automatically reduce the town’s reliance on property taxes.

      <

      p>How many towns would, given an increase in local aid, use that money to fund additional services? Give teachers and police offers a deserved raise? Pay off debts? Squirrel away a rainy-day fund? Maybe some of that money might find its way towards pushing off an override, but actually reducing the levy? I doubt it.

      <

      p>What can Patrick do in the face of this? It’ll be his downfall, I tell you.

      • $450 million in Lottery Money absconded from the towns to add to the Rainy Day fund be returned.  There are countless towns that would not have had to go into debt and pass debt exclusion measures if that money had been returned.  

        <

        p>But he won’t do that will he……..

        • And the lottery money comes out at 900 mil a year — and it’s not a significant part of the budget for any of those towns, any town going for an override is probably asking for an amount greater than all the lottery money they receive in a year.  Getting another half of that for one year only doesn’t really fix anything.  Sure, we’d take it but it’s not gonna fix anything.

          <

          p>Patrick’s kept the state aid increases at a reasonable level although they need to be pushed higher to make up for the big cuts under Romney, he pushed for the local options meals tax (rejected), closing the prop tax loophole on telephone poles (accepted but tied up in the courts indefinitely right now), the closing of the corporate loopholes (seemingly accepted now but in less of a revenue positive way), the casino plan to boost revenue (rejected huge)…

          <

          p>How’s he supposed to create local aid when every move is stymied?  He can’t just print the money..

    • I’m certain someone will correct me if I’m wrong but since the bill already passed the opportunity for earmarking is passed. Bill is done and once the bonds are floated the shovels start to hit the ground.

      • Who says they’re DONE?

        <

        p>The recent appropriation was just a Part I.  Now, they’ll do the regular budget.  THEN, they’ll take up an even LARGER transportation bond bill.  This is from the letter Chairman DeLao sent to ALL members –

        <

        p>

        However, due to its attentions being focused on preparation of the Fiscal Year 2009 General Appropriations Act, the Committee has not yet completed its work on substantial portions of the bill that would be the appropriate location for district priorities and specific project earmarks. As such, the Committee on Ways and Means intends to act on the residue of the Transportation Bond Bill after engrossment of the General Appropriations Act, at which time Members would have every opportunity to seek earmarks and support for local projects.

        Given that we will be taking up an earmark and amendment appropriate vehicle later in the Spring, I would respectfully ask that you join with me in abstaining from filing district related or other amendments to the present bill. I make this request not only as a function of the fact that the Committee intends to report out another vehicle in the near future, but also because amending certain provisions of the bill would jeopardize federal funding. Moreover, with respect to the remaining provisions, the Legislature has traditionally passed such authorizations without earmarks.

        In short, our goal this week is to enact those transportation bonding authorizations which need to be enacted immediately to secure federal funding and begin the Spring construction schedule on time. Concurrently, we would seek to delay debate on the remainder of the Transportation Bond Bill-that part in which we traditionally craft specific authorizations for important local projects-until later in the legislative year.

        Thank you for your consideration of my thoughts on this matter.

        <

        p>”An earmark and amendment appropriate vehicle”.  You can’t make this stuff up.

        • The post I responded to was the “emergency” transportation bond and I believe my statements in reference to that (that since it is passed earmarks cannot be made) holds true.

          <

          p>Your point (and citation) about the “normal” transportation bond bill is, however and unfortunately, correct. Any bill, until it has been signed by the Governor, is indeed open to earmarks.

  8. He has an important few months ahead of him and a lot of potential to get his groove on.  Let’s all remember, in the two-year legislative session, the weeks/months that really matter are always the last ones and those are still to come.

    <

    p>Patrick is going to get to sign a number of major initiatives into law by the time the legislature recesses – life sciences, energy reform, further bond measures, etc… On top of the corporate tax reform (and yes we have to over-turn those late-night Bosley amendments) and transport initiatives, these measures will shape a new narrative of success for the Governor, particularly in taking a forward-looking approach to meeting the long-term economic challenges we face.

    <

    p>And as Doug Rubin has pointed out, the Readiness Project on education will report soon and we should expect its recommendations to shape debate on the Hill and around the state into 2009-10.  

    <

    p>No doubt, its been a somewhat bumpy first year and change for the Guv – but when he plays to his significant strengths and places the focus of the media and the public on the real challenges we face and the steps we must undertake together to meet them (thereby shifting attention away from the pissing contest with Sal and the up-down storyline the media loves to cover), he remains a very formidable and uniquely gifted politician.

    <

    p>Let’s not make too much of polls today.  The building blocks are being laid for the rebound to come.

    <

    p>

    • …but I think this group underestimates the negative impact of the book deal on the impression of the population at large. The next two years need to be about competence and achievements that impact the daily lives of the working families of the state.  

      • I also think you are right about what the next two years has to be about.  No doubt.  

        <

        p>And to your larger point — what get’s politicians into trouble is when they are perceived to be looking out for themselves and not for the interests of the people they were elected to serve.  Its a killer and the perception cannot be allowed to stick.

        <

        p>A key rule in life is – ITS NOT ABOUT YOU!!!

        <

        p>There is this funny comic book career guide (written by Daniel Pink) about this unhappy young accountant named Johny Bunko.  A buddy of mine’s wife is a guidance counselor and uses the book to chill out nervous high school seniors before they enter college.  One of the six lessons for Johny Bunko is that ITS NOT ABOUT YOU, but what you can do for others and that the most successful people are those with the ability to make others better.

        <

        p>It was also one of Bill Clinton’s rules of politics – that it is not about you but about them (i.e. the voters).  Sadly Mr. Clinton has decided the rule no longer applies as he traverses the country stumping for his wife. For him this year, it is very much all about him – that is why he has been as much a problem as a solution for her on the trail.

        <

        p>But as is true about most good advice – its always easier said then done, easier to give advice than to take it, easier to blog it than to do it.  Bill Clinton circa 2008 is exhibit A in not taking his own advice.

  9. During the presidential primary and caucus contests thus far this year, Survey USA has been frequently wide of the mark in predicting outcomes. I’d say their track record is maybe a little better than Rasmussen’s (which consistently overstated Romney’s support) but they are not among the most respected polling outfits.

    <

    p>I would want to see corroboration of these poll results from an another source before I placed too much stock in them. It’s not in the least bit surprising that Keller is trumpeting this poll, however. His views of this Administration are often tendentious.

    • Relative to the Presidential race, they’ve been less prone to the “Obama’s Gaining” polls we saw in Ma, California, NJ and recently, Pennsylvania (nice job, PPP!).  Maybe they work harder to get through to blue collar voters and seniors who do not participate in a lot of phone surveys, maybe they train their callers better.

      <

      p>Anyway, as Doug said, there’s work to be done in any case regardless of where the polls are right now.  Just keep pointing forward and the polls will follow.

  10. Funny how EaBo decides to post this particular approval rating.  I wouldn’t push too hard, if you notice the graph the follow poll shows a bounce back.  Will there be a post discussing how his approvals went up?  If there is a steady progression downward over a period of time (like Dubya) it’s one thing but when you have these one month occurrences it’s another.  In any event, look forward to your updated post next month!

      • Is “book deal” all you have? I didn’t even hear people talking about this issue during the news cycle when it broke. It’s a non-issue.

        • Book deal might have not meant anything to the posters on this board, but I’ll vouch that this issue resonated out there, dems and republicans alike.

          • The people who really follow MA politics very closely know about the book deal. Almost everybody else I’ve talked to don’t really care or haven’t heard of it.

  11. But now I can’t find the comment. Does anybody think it’s a coincidence that these numbers completely mirror the results from the primary? (Hillary 56% & Obama 41%) How much of this is just a Devack Obatrick effect? Given that the primary was really the biggest political event we’ve had in awhile, doesn’t that seem the most likely cause for these numbers? I know the exit poll numbers are a bit off, but I think it’s telling that the youngest voters support Deval more than any other group.

  12. The Governor has been damaged by Speaker DiMasi’s efforts to destroy him, but since he cannot control DiMasi, he should focus on two major issues: the economy and the envrionment.  

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    p>Govenor Patrick needs to make it clear to all voters that his number one issue all the time is working to create the strongest possible Massachuetts economy. He should tie other issues such as health care, housing, and education into his economic vision to the state. I would argue that the Governor needs to get a little robotic about this to the point where he says the same thing so many times that the average voter on seeing him immediatley associates the Governor with his economic plan.

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    p>Secondly, the Governor needs to continue to work on the environment both because environmental policy is a key to the state’s economic future and because it is an issue near and death to many of the liberals who feel alienated over casinos.

  13. The key is for Patrick to focus on winning over those who view him as doing a fair job–that’s a large block.
    Also he has to avoid getting tangled up in arguments with DiMasi who wants him to do badly.

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