Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Hillary has the momentum

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While a good majority of you here may not wish to believe it, Hillary's campaign has seized the momentum and has had it for a while.  Dan Kennedy McLaughlin at RedState has an interesting analysis of the primaries and caucuses since March 4 and it should cause some pause to you Obama supporters.  Here is the raw data supporting his contention that Obama has Negative Momentum:  

State Date Obama Clinton Margin
Pennsylvania 4/22 1,042,297 1,258,245 -215,948
Mississippi 3/11 265,502 159,221 +106,281
Wyoming 3/8 5,378 3,311 +2,067
Texas 3/4 1,358,785 1,459,814 -101,029
Ohio 3/4 982,489 1,212,362 -229,873
Rhode Island 3/4 75,316 108,949 -33,633
Vermont 3/4 91,901 59,806 +32,095
Total 3,821,668 4,261,708 -440,040
Overall% 47.3% 52.7%

Obama can probably still run out the clock, but he's going to end with the worst run-up to the convention since Gerald Ford in 1976. And the real finish line, of course, is in November.

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  2. There’s this:

    <

    p>

    Between them, Paul (16 percent) and Huckabee (11 percent) took more than one out of every four votes in the Pennsylvania Republican primary. While the focus is on Democratic disunity, these numbers suggest a startling degree of disunity in the party whose nomination is already sewn up. There’s worse news for McCain, too: according to exit polls, the majority of the Republicans who switched registration to vote in the Keystone State’s Democratic primary went for Obama. In other words, these were not Dittoheads following Limbaugh’s orders to create chaos by voting for Hil; these were actual Republicans who are drawn to Obama – presumably because they’re sick of the war, just like the rest of the country is.

    <

    p>And also this:

    <

    p>

    Simple math. The feds will give you $84 million in September, after you’re formally nominated, for two months of campaigning. If you can’t raise more than $42 million a month on your own (or not so much more as to justify the time demands of holding relentless fundraising events), you take it. If you can, you don’t. How do those numbers break for Maverick? He pulled in $15.4 million in March, a little more than a third of what Kerry took in the month after he locked up the nomination four years ago. That is to say, it’s not just that he’s doing poorly vis-a-vis Obama – $72 million versus $236 million, if you can believe it – it’s that he’s doing poorly, period.

    …

    Now that this shoe’s dropped, all we’re waiting on is Barry O’s formal announcement that he’s opting out of public financing and the terms are set. Exit quotation from the Times: “Obama has raised more in small donations than McCain has raised in his entire campaign.” Not just small donations, guys – online small donations, which involve virtually no cost to the campaign. A young, energized, Net-savvy base is a nice thing to have.

  3. Judging the state-by-state as some sort of silly momentum machine is like holding 351 separate elections for governor.

    <

    p>Imagine the punditry class after the Barnstable election.

    <

    p>”Kerry Healey had a nice win in today’s Barnstable vote.  This is a really important win for her, coming after her 7500-vote loss in Arlington.:

    <

    p>”Yeah, Patrick’s margin in Arlington was bigger than Healey’s vote total, she didn’t got less than 5400 votes in Arlington.  She has to be feeling very good, though, with her 9300 votes in Barnstable.  She did really well, and this is Christy Mihos’ home town.”

    <

    p>”Healey is picking up momentum out on the Cape, but what happens next week when we’re in Brookline?”

    <

    p>”That could be a real momentum-killer.”

    • you are comparing apples to oranges.  If we voted for governor one community at a time over the course of 351 days you could make the kinds of observations that Dan is making.

      • Did I say that?

        <

        p>The claim was that the results are indicating momentum for Hillary, but the opinion polls don’t show any significant swings – i.e., no momentum. Furthermore, our experience with past contents in this election cycle should teach us to be careful with momentum predictions. Remember how people said that Clinton had regained the momentum after OH only to be blown out of the water in MS et al? The same can be said about momentum predictions after Obama victories.

  5. State
    Date
    Obama
    Clinton
    Margin
    McCain
    Romney
    Paul
    Huckabee
    Uncommited
    Margin

    Pennsylvania
    4/22/2008
    1042297
    1258245
    -215948
    587210
     
    128483
    91430
     
     

    Mississippi
    3/11/2008
    265502
    159221
    106281
    113074
     
    5510
    17943
     
     

    Wyoming
    3/8/2008
    5378
    3311
    2067
    204027
    255248
    13210
    19168
     
     

    Texas
    3/4/2008
    1358785
    1459814
    -101029
    709477
     
    69954
    523554
     
     

    Ohio
    3/4/2008
    982489
    1212362
    -229873
    636,256
     
    49,027
    325,581
     
     

    Rhode Island
    3/4/2008
    75316
    108949
    -33633
    17,468
     
    1,775
    5,839
    567
     

    Vermont
    3/4/2008
    91901
    59806
    32095
    28,488
     
    2,627
    5,615
     
     

    Total
     
    3,821,668
    4,261,708
    (440,040)
    2,296,000
    255,248
    270,586
    989,130
    567
    780,469

    Overall%
     
    47.3%
    52.7%
     
    60.2%
    6.7%
    7.1%
    26.0%
    0.0%
     

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