Hillary’s big challenge was writ large — or should have been — since the days when Edwards was still part of the triumvirate. The challenge was, “Make darned sure whichever of Edwards or Obama drops out first, most of theirs supporters go to ME.”
She failed on that one, and the problem was message.
As a political armchair quarterback, I may not have much to say about national campaign strategy. But I know what the message coming through the TV should feel like. The winning national message is universal and very simple:
“My campaign is the COOLEST party on the block. We’ve got your party hat right here; hop on board and I’ll see you at happy hour.”
It’s an outreach message that is based in two assumptions: 1) Victory is ours; and 2) You will be part of our victory.
Hillary only had #1. The message I felt coming from her was, “My campaign is manning the battle stations and we’ve got all the guns we need to win. Everybody else, get out of our way.” She projected victory, but not outreach.
That’s a big mistake anytime, except perhaps the day before the election when it’s down to turnout. But it’s a HUGE mistake when the elections are months away, and a you face a SPLIT OPPOSITION which you must prevent, at any cost, from uniting against you.
Oops.
I could go on about how this crucial error was a reflection of Hillary’s professional journey, and even how the media pushed that frame upon her. I’m very sympathetic to her. Unfortunately, life doesn’t award points for sympathy.
Better luck next time, Hills, whatever the next adventure might be.
Dean’s campaign in 2004 was much cooler than Kerry. Novick’s Oregon campaign was cooler than Merkley’s. Might you be overstating the import of coolness?
<
p>I’m not going to write a post-mortem while the patient is (barely) still alive. However, one thing that I often find myself musing is how utterly undesirable it has become to be the overwhelming favorite trying to be inevitable — something you touch on with your message that Clinton was projecting in the summer and fall of 2007. Kerry and McCain — among others — seem to point to the idea that you should be on the edge of failure for a while, and thus off the radar screen. If for no other reason, this keeps you out of the way of a media desperate to make a close campaign for ratings’ sake.
To answer your question, I’m not over-stating the importance of ‘coolness’; however, I may be stretching the meaning of a word, in which case I ask for your patience. I use “coolness” to mean an assumption on the part of the candidate that everyone is going to support him or her, and that things will be great when that time comes. It is important that the candidate assumes that, and speaks from that assumption, rather than saying it explicitly.
<
p>The TV listener hears this and thinks (subconsciously), “oh my gosh, all my friends will be supporting this candidate soon.” Which influences their own decisions, whether they are an Iowa caucus-goer or a Massachusetts blogger.
<
p>I think everybody knows this; all I want to point out is that Hillary did a bad job of outreach early on, and Obama did a good job; thus, Edwards supports went to Obama, giving him a decisive edge.
<
p>As far as the front-runner status, I think it’s a question of timing. A campaign ought to analyze when the key moments are that it is important to succeed, look strong, gain support. Lying low is fine to a point, but you only get one chance to step up and you have to succeed.
<
p>Obama and McCain both did this, but in very different ways. McCain leveraged the three-way-split split anti-McCain vote, and personally I believe he didn’t plan it but just got lucky. But I could be wrong.
<
p>I believe Obama had a meticulous outreach-focused presentation from Day 1, and a decent plan for when he had to succeed; and he executed well.
As I prepare (….clear throat…mi, mi, mi, mi, mi…) for my annual Sunday Summer Sing Along, I was looking at last year’s offerings. One was a parody of a Cole Porter song called “Down In The Depths, The Front Runner No More..” about the bankrupt and flailing John McCain. And the funny thing was, I was concerned he wouldn’t MAKE IT to the beginning of July, when I do the songs!
<
p>His months in vulnerable territory helped his primary vote totals.
<
p>I DO have a kick-ass Hillary song all written…..but I may post that this Friday…..
I agree on the outreach point and I think that was a problem she made for herself even recently, such as through the gas tax holiday proposal.
<
p>By the time she proposed it, she had pretty much solidified her support among lower-income, white Dems – given Edwards’ departure from the race long ago. But, this proposal just played to that same base. What is telling about it, is that she didn’t try and craft a message to break into Obama’s base at all, particularly in North Carolina, where if she could have made it close, she would have had a real chance to pull the race back to her. She just tryed to gin up the block of voters she already had. So while she has proved that block is hers, she has done nothing to show wider strength, which made it impossible for her to win favor with the superdels.
<
p>Instead, the gas tax holiday played to Obama’s strengths, because after Rev. Wright retook the stage, it gave Obama a message that fit his campaign theme, that the gas tax holiday was just another Washington gimmick by a DC pol.
<
p>Hillary’s passionless, insider-driven, cautious, inevitability campaign, which lasted until Jan 3rd – turned a very winnable race into a contest and she took a further month or so to find her truer voice as a populist going forward. If she showed half the spunk (with a message to boot) she has recently in the early going, it would have been over early. Instead, she was already looking to the general, trying not to lose instead of fighting for the win.
Ah well!
<
p>