Just talking about some columnist being an “empty talking head” does nothing to diminish the danger in what is going on now in Ossetia. Like World War I, what is happening in the Caucusus could cause an erratic, unstoppable forward lurch into a wider and wider conventional conflict. Terroristm. Religious hatred…and oil…yes, but also Beslan and School No.1.
The sheer horror of what happened in Beslan is beyond what happened in seconds in Oklahoma City or in a couple of hours in New York – the suffering was almost beyond imagination. And the impact on Russia, and the degree to which Beslan factors into the implosion of the budding new democracy in Russia cannot, must not be ignored.
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/widean…
The note Putin struck most distinctly at the meeting with reporters and scholars was one of paranoia, fear that outside forces-the enemies he knew as a K.G.B. officer-were somehow undermining him. Those who mean to “tear off a big chunk of our country,” he said, are being backed by those who “think that Russia, as one of the greatest nuclear powers of the world, is still a threat, and this threat has to be eliminated.”
And so the Russian people, who live in dread of further violence, find themselves at the mercy of well-trained terrorists in the south and a paranoid President in the Kremlin who refuses the burdens of democratic accountability and the need to reshape a policy that is good for little but more bloodshed.
After all, to even begin to understand how the USA found itself in Iraq, the impact of 9/11 on the American psyche HAS to be considered.
The fighting has to stop, for so many reasons, even beyond the terrible fact that people are dying.
The deeper one gets into this mess, the more it seems that there are plenty of bad guys:
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p>Georgia for being rather brutal in reclaiming sovereignty over South Ossetia and Abkhazia;
Russia for being rather brutal in fighting back in what it believes are those regions’ interests (cf Breslan); and
the US for leading the government of Georgia to believe that America would have their back after their adventurousness in those two regions.
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p>There’s a lot to try to understand in this mess, and the most lucid writing I’ve found thus far is this blog, the Belgravia Dispatch.
I could find links to various aid packages we gave them but did we ever state we would back them against Russia in armed conflict? That is what you are accusing the US of right? The Bay of Pigs disaster we clearly told the Cubans we would back them and then pulled the plug but did that really happen here?
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The correspondent documents the United States talking up Georgia’s eligibility for NATO, and giving such succor to the current head of government there. Nobody would be dumb enough to say “we’ll declare war on Russia to save your butt if you want something with them” but it doesn’t take George Keenan to figure out the messages that were being sent.
if they believed the US would help out in a pinch. Remember the days after Gulf War I when there were uprisings by the Shiites in the south and the Kurds in the north? The US did nothing to help even though they had previously encouraged the revolts.
in what seems like it could have been an avoidable conflict that has cost lives needlessly.
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p>As far as Russia’s role, I’d say this was a message to the west as much as to Georgia itself.
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p>Russian interest in South Ossetia and Abkhazia’s self-determination may be motivated in small part by the ambitions of those peoples for greater autonomy but in large part by Russia’s own self-interest in ensuring that stroppy and pro-western former Soviet republics don’t stray too far from their erstwhile mother.
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p>The Bush Admin seems utterly caught out by the whole thing. They look impotent. Another failure. I mean what did they think might happen if Georgia used force? It was altogether predictable that Russia may use that as a pretext for asserting its own interests. It played right into Putin’s hands.
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p>This is an interesting post by AmberPaw in general and I was thinking of posting something on McCain’s craven efforts to fan the flames of this crisis for political gain. Maybe I still will.
The recent American-sponsored Kosovar declaration of independence affected Russia more than Rice and Bush expected, I’d wager. That’s something else that may have prompted Russia’s actions as they violate the recent truce.
Ultimately, the Russian grievance list is a long one I’d say. They are pissed they are not a superpower for one. They are pissed their influence in Eastern Europe has waned. They are pissed we take military and diplomatic action across the Globe with impunity, despite their views. They are pissed NATO continues to encroach toward their borders. They are pissed we are placing missile defense systems in the Czech Republic and Poland. They are pissed about Kosovo and the fact that their support for Serbia has meant nothing in the face of American and European power.
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p>The Russians have always had a certain inferiority complex in global affairs vis-a-vis the west – always wanting to prove they are every bit the world power they see themselves as. To some degree, since the Soviet Union collapsed in 90 we have been rubbing their losses in their face ever since – with able assistance from their former satellites who were more than happy to trade Russian oppression for American cooperation. Former Soviet satellites from Lithuania to Georgia are some of our biggest supporters in the world, supplying troops to our adventure in Iraq and new markets for American goods and ideas. Despite saying that we mean no harm toward Russia in aggressively supporting these emerging democracies, we can’t but expect Russia to see all this activity as damaging to their interests. I guess we figured so what. Now the Russians are sending a message to all those who want America’s embrace that their power still matters.
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p>And underlying all of this is the fact that Russia’s reassertion of its power is buttressed by the world’s most important substance – OIL. The high price of oil has fuelled their economy and given them the strength to rebuild their military strength to a respectable level – at least to ensure they remain a dominant regional power if not a global one. This seems another reason to reduce our dependence on foreign oil sources – as it feeds Russian authoritarianism and latent expansionism.
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… from Altercation:
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I’m glad someone is posting about this situation and also explaining some of the history behind what is going on. There has been too little information about the roots of the conflict for most people (here, and elsewhere I suppose) to even know what is going on and why. I personally need to read more about the South Ossetia connection to Beslan and will when I can.
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p>I also agree on the parallel between Beslan and 9/11.
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p>On the other hand, I find some irony in the “excuse” that the 9/11 mentality in Russia is responsible for this, and gee maybe that is OK since look what we did in Iraq driven by the same mentality – given how universally opposed our Iraq adventure has been in these parts.
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p>Consider that millions of people in the USA and Europe took to the streets marching against the Iraq invasion both prior to and after our invasion there. Where are the protesters now?
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p>Is the US the only bad guy?
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p>Does no one remember the extended history of massive and horrible atrocities and true imperialism of the Soviet Union?
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p>Yes I agree that your Beslan history is relevant, but so is the history of the Soviet Union. I strongly recommend “the Black Book of Communism” if you have not read it. These people were as bad as the Nazis, if not worse. Read it.
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…9/11 does not excuse the invasion of Iraq, the spying on civilians, secret rendition, or Guantanamo. The Ben Franklin quote comes to mind:
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Mind, not all cultures agree with Franklin despite the fact that I agree with Franklin’s aphorism.
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p>Beslan does not excuse killing 80,000 or 90,000 Chechens and Ingush – nor the invasion of Georgia and the potential annexation of Ossetia and Abhkazia.
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p>However, the emotional wash from 9/11 did provide the passion behind the Iraq invasion – of that I have no doubt just as I have no doubt that Beslan [and other horrors such as blown up apartments, exploded airplanes, theater hostage taking in Russia proper] have all but destroyed the budding of democracy in Russia AND are part of the passion behind current events in the caucuses.
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p>There is a difference between analysis and approval – I would think most readers here know that.
ESPECIALLY by the left! You guys are so eager to throw away huge chunks of your (or more likely others’) livelihood in the form of confiscatory taxes just because you can get the numbers to vote yourselves other people’s money – where’s the liberty?
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p>Aside from a few niche issues (gay marriage, wiretapping conversations with foreign suspects, free speech when it suits you) liberals place very low priority on liberty, I’m afraid.
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p>Which of this list off the top of my head do you support:
One-world government / citizen of the world
Fairness doctrine
Wealth redistribution
Campus speech codes
Judicial activism when it suits your agenda (legislation by the unelected)
Ignoring the will of the voters on income tax rollback
Suppressing the gay marriage ballot initiative from the voters
Affirmative action / race-based preferences (racism)
Carbon emissions control on a global scale
Government intrusion wherever possible “for the greater benefit”
Scuttle the 2nd amendment
“Social Justice”
Union Check Card
More and more regulation on businesses
“Windfall profit tax” on oil
Price controls / “government negotiated pricing” on pharma products
Socialized medicine
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p>My favorite recent example is speech crimes, exemplified by “human rights” tribunals in Canada.
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p>I bet you take the big government / meddle and intrude side on most issues, do you not?
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p>Need links?
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p>The “progressive” solution to nearly every single problem is to take money from people who make more than you do, because you think they have plenty. Theft. And dole it out to the needy. From those according to their ability to those according to their need. Unfortunately you’ll never ever find a limit to “need”.
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p>You think a person getting 50% of their income confiscated is free? Free to stop working, perhaps, but other than that simply a half-slave to the endlessly growing monster that is big government.
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p>Security? Yes! We need it! Let’s confiscate other people’s livelihood at every turn! Liberty? Pah.
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p>Policy-wise, you guys do practically nothing but trade liberty for security.
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This is a larger discussion. Let’s keep this very interesting thread in the Caucuses.
we still can’t hold a candle to Russia. Even Bush can’t hold a candle compared to Putin – he’s like Cheney and Rove combined, without Bush’s idiocy and baggage. The very fact that Putin’s managed to hold power beyond his term limits is revealing (note how all the Diplomats are contacting Putin, not Russia’s president) – not even Bush and Cheney could figure out a way to stay, and not even their faction in the Republican party is likely to hold power, given Obama’s efforts.
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p>The sad thing is we don’t even need to go back to the Soviet Union to see that Putin and Russia are way worse than Bush. What Russia’s done to Chechnya is worse than what we’ve done to Iraq – it’s ethnic cleansing at its worst and I honestly can’t even blame them for resorting to terrorist tactics after all these years. There, quite simply, aren’t even that many Chechens left. And I haven’t even gotten into the various people, including world leaders, that the Russians have had poisoned.
Got anything whatsoever to support the implication that they are attempting to stay beyond their elected terms?
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p>Silly.
Silly? I didn’t say they were creating exploratory committees, or anything. I was just suggesting that, thanks to our system, they couldn’t do it. If they could stay a third term or more, I’m sure they’d try. Not many Presidents did that even when they could. The last one who did, one of the most popular ever, managed to compel the country to create a constitutional amendment that would enforce term limits.
… uncalled for on the basis that if a news item came out tomorrow that they did have a plan for an ’emergency third term’ would we really be surprised. I’ve given up being surprised at how low this bunch can go.
AmberPaw, you’re being overly sensationalist.
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p>-South Ossetia broke away in 1992, well before the school massacre.
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p>-Chechens were responsible for Beslan, not Georgians, the two incidents have nothing to do with each other.
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p>That being said, the point that’s being missed by most of the coverage of the war, is that Georgia started it. They invaded South Ossetia, which had de facto independence. Russia’s “invasion” was a response to Georgian aggression.
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p>Now you can argue that Russia should have stopped at the Ossetian border, just like you can argue that UN forces should have stopped at the 37th parallel in the Korean War, but in both cases there was a strong case to be made that the aggressive nation needed to be punished to avoid them just biding their time and attacking again. Whether that was the right decision is difficult to say, even in retrospect.
Pakistan, if Pakistan moved into lawless Waziristan then?
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p>Would Pakistan have “started it”?
Is there an independent government that has de facto authority in Waziristan? No
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p>Is there a cease fire agreement between this government and Pakistan? No
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p>Are there Russian peacekeepers in Waziristan to enforce this cease fire agreement? No
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p>Are most of the residents of Waziristan Russian citizens? No
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p>Is this analogy at all valid? No
According to Georgia, 137 terrorist attacks against Georgia were launched in the last year [no, I haven’t seen documentation but yes, I consider the allegation to have heft].
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p>Yes, Georgia “started it” and this appears to be very poor statecraft, if not downright moronic on the part of Mikhail Sakaasvili. I note that our own President Lincoln knew not to “fire the first shot” and therefore, the South fired on Fort Sumter, making the North the “victim of aggression”, at least arguendo.
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p>I note that the Beslan incident was handled so poorly it is unclear whether 29 or 75 terrorists were involved, and the terrorists were from multiple areas, at least Chechens and Ingush and maybe Uighers, it is just not well enough handled for anyone to be so sure.
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p>I was not discussing “solid linkage’ but psychic damage, emotional impact, and the desire to avenge which is never a precise sort of easily controlled motivation.
And, of course, NO analogy is perfect. Attacking the analogy does not attack the point being made, in general.
but a) Russia went way beyond defending S. Ossetia and b) I’m not so sure you can count out the fact that the Russians were egging the S. Ossetians on to act in ways that would prompt Georgia to invade.
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p>In any event, suggesting that Russia was in the right here to do exactly what they did is beyond absurd. It would be laughable, if not for the fact that over a thousand people died.
what has gone on in the caucusus, including some of the things noted above, have been terrible.
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p>but perhaps this can be america’s first post-iraq-debacle test on whether we have learned anything about trying to untangle centuries worth of ethnic hatreds, and choosing sides with very murky ‘allies’.
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p>i would be interested to hear why usa is under the expectation to be four square behind georgia in this situation. the soviet bear is dead. the threat of a resurrected mighty expansionist russia is bunk, and to portray it as such seems to only slap a simple label on what is really centuries worth of enresolved convoluted ethnic and national conflict. with bad guys all around.
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p>and feeling the urge to throw the usa into the middle of this, makes me worry that we cannot. seem. to. get. some. things. through. our. heads
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is to become isolationists or stay uninvolved. It’s to not be idiots when we do choose to get involved, by promoting neo-con ideals that have over and over again proven themselves to be massive failures.
… From Altercation
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p>Further in:
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I travel to the Baltic states every few years and am very worried about this situation. I personally feel that this military campaign has been planed and was done right during the Olympics so the world can see Russia’s military might. If you think that this is bad read up a bit about Lithuania’s leader Valdas Adamskus. He is an American citizen who was a card carrying Republican working under Reagan at the EPA.
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p>Most people in the Baltics question his rise to power considering a populist president Rolondas Paskas was accused of corruption and was supposed to have been linked with the Russian mob. Its funny how any leader who calls for populist policies is considered corrupt and somehow falls to power fast, hmm.
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p>Many people think that his rise to power was set up by Bush as a way to install a puppet leader in one of Eastern Europes most important gateways between Russia and the west. Anyways I heard from some cousins that there has been talks of Adamskus trying to convince Bush to put nukes in Lithuania as a way to deter Moscow. I am not sure if this is true or not but it seems that Adamskus has been one of the most vocal leaders against Russia in this whole situation. If this is true for the love of god we need to stop it from happening. A move like that would infuriate Putin even more and probably lead to further tensions between the west and Russia. I personally don’t want to see my homeland destroyed and sure as hell don’t want to create the building blocks for war.
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p>On a side note this whole situation is pretty scary. I was in the military for 10 years and served in Bosnia and have had a bit of experience dealing with Russian soldiers. Most are conscripted into service and are trained to be ruthless. I hate to disrespect Russian soldiers but most military personal would tell you that they fear going up against these guys. Their not like us, most have nothing to go back to and are trained to be tough as nails. You never want to mess around with someone who has nothing to lose. A fight with these soldiers wouldn’t be a cake walk and due to the fact that our military is overstretched and trained for desert warfare we would be in for some trouble if Bush does what he does best.
… for the heads-up.
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p>Your musings about Lithuania has me wondering if there is digging to do regarding Saakashvili’s rise to prominence.
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p>Thanks for your service in Bosnia as well. I believe you regarding Russian Soldiers having nothing to lose, especially with the Russian Government’s record on paying them.
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p>The funny thing is that the media have been all over the idea that the conflict is somehow good for McCain.
I’m trying to catch up on this particular incident quickly and am still surprised that I had not heard about tensions before it blew up this week. I do vaguely remember the school hostage incident, but I’m starting to wonder whether this is symptomatic of what seems to be a lack of in-depth international coverage by the American media.
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p>My question is what is the current sovereign authority of Ossetia. My understanding was that the Soviet repubilcs all had previous spells of independence at one historical point in history or another before being absorbed by either the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union. When these republics all declared independence in the early 1990s I don’t recall any borders being in dispute. (Of course, I was in my early teens then, so please cut me a bit of slack when it comes to paying attention.) So is Ossetia part of Georgia or not? Is it a matter of having an ethnic Russian majority that was not keen on secession? Is Ossetia trying to pull a West Virginia in that it wants to secede from its in order to avoid seceding from the larger nation? I think I’ve read these posts and comments pretty carefully, but cannot figure out this fundamental question. Do we even know what the Ossetians themselves want?
Here is a link: http://www.hunmagyar.org/turan…
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p>This is an entry written by Ossetians, about who they are.
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p>Essentially, North Ossetia, which is a part of Russia and South Osseitia were once one country. They petitioned Stalin in 1925 t5o be one separate [but united as one] republic within the U.S.S.R. Stalin, which means “Iron” and was not this tyrant’s “real name” was a Georgian, born in Gori. It was Stalin who “gifted” Ossetia to Georgia, over Ossetian objections in the 1930s.
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p>In 1989, in early “glasnost” South Ossetia again petitioned to leave Georgia and unite with North Ossetia. The then-ruling Georgian Soviet responded by suppressing South Ossetian autnomy and banning South Osseitan newspapers and media generally.
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p>Georgia next outlawed the Ossetian language in about 1990, and declared Georgian the official language of Ossetia. Fighting commenced in 1991.
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p>Here is the best map I have found of the languages and nationalities involved:
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p>http://www.hunmagyar.org/turan…
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p>Anyway, from 1992 until August 7, 2008 South Ossetia has been a kind of Russian protectorate. Most South Ossetians have Russian passports, and consider that Georgia and Georgians are oppressors, historically, to South Ossetia.
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p>Also, the school children and parents killed and taken hostage in school No. 1 in Beslan were almost all ethnic and linguistic Ossetians [mostly North Ossetians] who considered Russia their protectors, and there is great bitterness in Ossetia and true shame in Russia over this event. [The Beslan seige and hostage debacle].
This definitely helps. Just to probe a little further is Georgia currently truly oppressive to the South Ossetians? I have heard that Georgia is currently a democratic pro-Western country. To me that conjures up images of free elections, free press, legislative representation, and possibly semi-sovereignty over internal affairs in the Ossetian province. How accurate is the picture I just painted? I must admit I’ve never understood ethnic conflict for its own sake. I’ve always said that I really don’t care who the ruling majority is as long as my vote counts and certain basic rights are protected. Maybe that’s just the American in me.
Here is the link: http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/…
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p>THIS is what Georgia & President Saakashvili should have done in the first place. Not send troops into South Ossetia!!
First off I will disclose for the summer I am a State Department employee. Last week Condi told us in a meeting that she was 95% confident that there would be no war. Once again America was caught with its pants down as the most incompetent team running our foreign policy did not know how to react.
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p>I am incredibly mad we foolishly invaded Iraq, tying down our military to respond to a fictional crisis in Iraq while real crises like this one or the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan spiral out of control with impotent American response.
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p>I am incredibly mad at democratic Europe for failing to stand up for an ally that has mad overtures to them and wants to join the community of capitalist democracies in the EU with the protection they get with NATO. Europe fearful of antagonizing Russia put Georgia and Ukraine on the backburner for EU and NATO membership and now an aggressive Russia will seize those territories through proxy before that dream can ever actually happen. Shame on Europe for this latest round of appeasement.
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p>I am incredibly mad at Germany for staying neutral and blaming Georgia, shame on the US for responding to slowly to the most blatant act of Russian aggression since their invasion of Afghanistan with vague pledges for peace and neutrality when we should have been backing a friend.
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p>I am incredibly mad at news outlets and lefty bloggers who equate Georgia going into ITS OWN INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNIZED TERRITORY as the invasion of a sovereign country akin to the US invading Iraq.
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p>Similarly I am incredibly mad at the news media and lefty bloggers for equating the Russian invasion with the War on Iraq. While the Iraq war was wrong it was precipitated by several UN resolutions that needed to be enforced and it was not the death of a democracy. The US trying to light a beacon of freedom by force, while idiotic, is far more noble than Russia trying to put a beacon of freedom out by force which is tyranny and oppression at its most striking and basic form.
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p>I am incredibly mad at Barack Obama for taking a very lukewarm position on an issue when he could, like Richard Holbrooke has articulated, over a very strong and resonant multilateral diplomatic alternative to the hawkish idiocies of John McCain who is simplifying the conflict with dangerous Cold War style rhetoric when it is far more complex than that.
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p>Lastly I am incredibly mad that once again mankind has fallen to hatred over reason and killed himself over a cause not worth dying for.