I found this encouraging over at the Atlantic.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM, NH (26 electoral votes)
Marginal toss-ups: FL, MI, WI, PA, OH (95 electoral votes)
True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA (27 electoral votes)
Lean McCain: GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, SD (58 electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (142 electoral votes)
Obama: likely + leaners: 216 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 200 electoral votes
Tossups: 122 electoral votes.
Slam-dunk? Not by a long shot. But remember that national horserace polling is not terribly meaningful. State-by-state is where the action is, and Obama continues to hold a modest advantage there.
Polls are not as frequent in some states and you normally don’t see the an indication of movement until a week later. It’s still going to be a fight and states like NH will be important.
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p>The four major daily tracking polls (9/17)
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p> Obama McCain
Gallup 47 45
Rasmussen 47 48
Research 2000 48 44
Diageo/Hotline 45 42
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p>Looks like the Palin bounce is over and the numbers are trending per-convention again.
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p>Plus Palin’s favorable numbers are going in the toilet.
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p>Sept. 11: +17
Sept. 12: +14
Sept. 13: +9
Sept. 14: +5
Sept. 15: +4
Sept. 16: +1
Sept. 17: -1
The Palin bounce is turning into the Palin bubble. The national polls are also starting to move back toward Obama.
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p>From Pollster.com a meta-poll analysis shows movement back to Obama,
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p>and the Gallup Daily has Obama back on top.
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p>Strange how issues in the headlines, instead of cosmetically enhanced swine, can move the polls toward Democrats.
Rasmussen shows the race being far tighter with McCain enjoying an edge in many swing states.
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p>I know these polls are very dynamic and may not even reflect the true feelings of the public but McCain has closed the gap in many states and taken over in others. It may not be good news for many Obama supporters but it still may be true.
you can’t take anything for granted, all it takes is a gaffe and independents start moving. Presidential elections are usually tight, it comes down to GOTV and keeping after the other campaign.
For the past seven years, we’ve been complaining that the media have taken an entirely stenographic/relativist approach to the truth. (“McCain announces up is down. Some Democrats believe this is wrong.”)
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p>Oddly, though, the media are beginning to turn on the Palin-McCain lying. Palin’s “No thanks on the bridge to no where” seems to have shocked large parts of the media for the audacity of her mendacity. McCain aides and McCain himself are getting very unpleasant questions. Who knows maybe the latest unnecessary lie from Governor Palin will sink them further. In a word, she’s now claiming that she asked her daughters before accepting the Veepship; previously she and the First Dude said that they had kept the whole thing a secret from their kids. What an easy-to-catch fib. If they latch onto it, the traditional media won’t let go.
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p>And here I thought Star, National Enquirer, People, and Us would be Palin’s nemeses!
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p>Down ticket, McCain is trying to figure out how to make the “Obama called Palin a pig” charge stick. The more he tries, the deeper he seems to be digging himself.
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p>The uncomfortable media interviews are also making McCain angry, nasty, and snippy. Not the best light for him.
Why does all this matter?
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p>McCain is lost on the issues. The economy is unraveling and Americans trust Democrats more on the economy.
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p>So McCain wants to run based on experience and character. If the coming month reveals him as angry and dishonorable, the light green and the red lines will plummet.
Three big questions:
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p>1. How will the McCain campaign handle Palin? Simply repeating her convention speech over and over again obviously is not working…in fact, they are dangerously approaching a place where they have to reinvent her all over again. Genius move to pick her and the way they rolled it out, but horrible follow-up.
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p>2. Will Obama choose to stick to an answer instead of trying to play both sides? I’m not criticizing him as a person or a policymaker, but he needs to figure out positions and stick with them.
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p>3. The biggest question? What role will the MSM play? We are dangerously reaching a point where the backlash against perceived bias in the media is going to play a prominent role in who will be elected.
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p>– I agree. She has been saying “nothing” these last few days. Her responses are empty and far too “political”. It’s time for substance to be emerging or she will die on the vine.
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p>2. Will Obama choose to stick to an answer instead of trying to play both sides? I’m not criticizing him as a person or a policymaker, but he needs to figure out positions and stick with them.
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p>– I agree again. He has been shifting and pandering since he wrapped up the nomination. I’m sure the campaign is looking at where he lacks suppport now and planning on what issues he needs to “moderate” to pick up these groups. He needs to be careful and so does McCain.
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p>3. The biggest question? What role will the MSM play? We are dangerously reaching a point where the backlash against perceived bias in the media is going to play a prominent role in who will be elected.
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p>I agree again except your qualifier of “perceived” on MSM bias. I wish there was a truly objective authority who could read the headlines of the country’s newspapers, the on-line news (Yahoo, Google…) and the TV news and grade them for bias. I realize that I am very biased but I think it’s so obvious that MSM loves Obama and wants him to win. There has been a viceral hatred for Palin since her name was announced despite the public liking her. I hope this backlash continues and reporters will ask meaningful questions of all four candidates. The other bias is to understand what issues will help/hurt Republicans. Bad news about the economy will hurt them so count on HUGE headlines about the sky falling on our economy. However, in he everyday world I see no changes. Good news about the war in Iraq will help the Republicans so don’t expect to see anything positive concerning Iraq in the MSM. These biases are more covert but just as effective.
Sean Hannity do an interview with Palin last night. Granted, it was a canned interview and Hannity’s about the most biased person on TV, but Palin seemed to be a lot more comfortable. She is articulating her differences with John McCain.
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p>I agree with your assessment of whatever the prevalent theme is in the media will help or hurt the Dem party. But one storyline that seems to have begun circulating is Obama’s choice of Jim Johnson as an advisor, and the amount of money Obama has received from Freddie/Fannie executives. Add to that McCain’s “premonition” in 2005 about Fannie and Freddie’s meltdown and there is potential for the economy numbers to shift in the Republicans favor.