Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Obama breaks 50%, leads by 7 points in new poll

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Barack Obama has hit the 50% mark in a new USA Today / Gallup poll. He now leads McCain 50% – 43%.

The Democratic National Convention significantly boosted Americans’ views of Barack Obama as a strong leader who “shares your values” and can manage the economy and Iraq, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Saturday and Sunday finds.

Republican John McCain’s advantage in handling terrorism was dramatically reduced, and his “unfavorable” rating ticked up to its highest level this year

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Lots of other great numbers in the poll as well.

Obama has eliminated McCain’s advantage over him as “a strong and decisive leader.” By 46%-44%, those surveyed say that characteristic applies more to Obama than McCain. Before the convention, McCain held an 8-point advantage. Obama has a 13-point advantage as someone who “shares your values,” almost double the edge he held before. He has an 8-point advantage as someone who is “honest and trustworthy”; before the convention, they were ranked equally.

Democrats, including me, are more enthusiastic than usual this year.

In the poll, Democrats continue to benefit from an “enthusiasm gap.” By 57%-28%, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they are more enthusiastic than usual this year. By 47%-39%, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they are less enthusiastic than usual.

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Comments

  1. That poll was 49-43, so i guess he hasn’t quite broken 50% just yet:

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    p>http://www.gallup.com/poll/109…

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    p>He never breaks 50% according to Gallup.

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    p>

    Comparing Obama’s current 49% support with the 45% he received immediately before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Denver last week suggests he received a 4-point bounce out of the convention, fairly typical of past convention bounces. Aside from the past few days, Obama has only once previously attained 49% support from national voters, and that was in late July.

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    p>Unfortunately its been coming down since then…  only CBS now has him up significantly (and Dan Rather isn’t even there anymore!)

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    p>

    • reached 50%.

      In the head-to-head race, Obama leads 50%-43% among registered voters. In the USA TODAY poll taken Aug. 21-23, the Illinois senator held a 4-percentage point lead.

      • but the gallup data does not substantiate that article.  The original post linked to that article and the gallup data that I linked is what should back it.

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        p>Since gallup only publishes a 3 day moving average I suppose USA today may have extrapolated 2 days and hit 50, but that only means that the 3rd day was that much worse.

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        p>Shouldn’t they link the poll data someplace?

        • …with this poll, conducted by Gallup and USA Today.  In this poll, Obama has reached 50% – your assumptions and suppositions are baseless.

          • Does anyone have data showing if these polls ever mean anything? Does the poll standing of the candidates at this stage within a certain margin truly reflect the outcome? How much was Dukakis up at this point before he lost.

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            p>I said it a month ago that the debates will decide this one. And obviously the final poll which is conducted by the voters casting their votes on Election Day. Until then don’t bore me with the number, even if McCain goes ahead in them.

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