Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Primary Prediction Thread

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Our own little in-state drama happens this week.  We have one statewide primary, after which things will hopefully cool down around here.

Also many state and representative districts.  Since we have wildly varying interests in those, I’m only booking action on the O’Reilly-Kerry showdown.  If you want to throw in your personal interest races, please do so.

Winner gets to quarterback the Patriots for a half.  Or a free drink from me if you come to a BMG event (still owe wahoowa from 2006).

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  1. You can work real hard, and stand on the issues,
    But better have lined up a whole box of tissues.
    O’Reilly is a David without the slingshot on hand,
    But it’z gud for democracy that he speechified, debatid and ranned.

    <

    p>US Senate
    Kerry 62%
    O’Reilly 34%
    other 4%

    <

    p>”How much it too much” is the head-shaking query
    Before ethical lapses leave you suspicious and weary?
    She brought home the bacon, the dollars and cents,
    But it takes more than that for fed-up ladies and gents.
    2nd Suffolk
    Chang-Diaz 53%
    Wilkerson 47%

    <

    p>Oft-overlooked, this urban combat in electo,
    There’s no saucy scandal in flagrante delicto,
    Instead three-hard workin’ guys working each connection,
    For its the best of those links that wins this election.
    9th Plymouth Rep
    Brady 39%
    Sullivan 34%
    Yunits 26%

    <

    p>

  2. In this thread we have:

    <

    p>Cadmium:
    O’Reilly is banking on low turnout. I predict  
    57-41 for Kerry.   2% write in 3rd party, none of above

    <

    p>billxi:
    Kerry 60%
    O’reilly 28%
    No vote 10%

    <

    p>I would say if Kerry doesn’t win 70% of his own party’s primary, look out for Jeff Beatty!

    <

    p>laurel:
    Kerry 78%
    O’Reilly 22%

    <

    p>this is percentage votes cast.

  3. Kerry 63
    O’Reilly 35

    <

    p>Donnelly 58
    Hurd 41

    <

    p>McCabe 40
    Donato 38
    Caralis 22

    <

    p>(Sorry Jim)

    <

    p>Lewis 59
    Rotondi 39

    <

    p>Sciortino 55
    Trane 45

    <

    p>

    • As a Medford man myself,

      <

      p>McCabe 49
      Donato 48
      Caralis 3

      <

      p>But don’t sit and talk about it, come help beat Paul Donato by working for McCabe on election day!
      Call 781 874 1224 to volunteer; we need everyone, because like my prediction shows, it’s going to be close. Donato is loaded; he has a money faucet that he can just turn on. McCabe is the union candidate, the pro-equality candidate, the pro-choice candidate, the progressive candidate, and the pro-Medford and Malden candidate. Speaking for the people of Medford and Malden, we need you this coming Tuesday. We’re right on the Orange Line!

      • Donato will win with 60% of the vote with Caralis and McCabe picking up the scraps. Neither have a chance against a very popular rep.

        <

        p>Word on the street is that McCabe has greatly exagerated the size and strength of his campaign from falsely double reporting his campaign finance contributions http://www.efs.cpf.state.ma.us… to placing his signs all over the city’s public property (this has pissed a lot of people off).

        <

        p>His performance at the debate at city hall was pathetic and he has alienated a lot of people in Medford with his negative campaigning style.

        <

        p>Predication: Donato 62, McCabe 21, Caralis 17.

  4. not that this matters…

    <

    p>JK/EOR 64/36

    <

    p>Sonia/Wilk 53/47

    <

    p>That’s all I feel comfortable in guessing.

    <

    p>But I’ll toss a 55/45 for Carl/Trane, too.

    <

    p>

  5. I think O’Reilly’s 22.5 in the convention seems to be a fair measure of the amount of support that can be gathered for a protest candidate.  Add a point or two for other minor grudges.

    <

    p>Kerry 76
    O’Reilly 24

    <

    p>Fourth Middlesex Senate:  Jack Hurd is running an Arlington selectman’s race, but Arlington can’t generate more than 40% of the vote.  There are hot rep races in Woburn and Billerica that will generate turnout.  The race will be close in Arlington, but Donnelly will win the district with ease.

    <

    p>Donnelly 61
    Hurd 39

  6. John Kerry will receive a substantially lower vote-share expected of a 24-year incumbent and former presidential candidate facing a same-party challenge, surprising many political observers.

    <

    p>I also predict Kerry’s re-election campaign will go down in the history of Mass politics as the most cynical, and weirdly passive–aggressive statewide primary campaign.

    <

    p>Bob will post the results under a triumphant headline, as if Kerry’s under-70% vote total is mandate for an “impressive senator”- and not merely a reflection of incumbency advantages and general inertia.

    <

    p>p.s. Sabutai, you should do more cross- posting

    • A think a relevant tidbit is that the absolute minimum for a Kerry “victory” in which he can take pride is 83 percent, the number achieved by Senator Clinton on her first primary re-election.  If a former presidential candidate with much deeper roots in his state can’t achieve what Clinton did (given that it was common knowledge she was warming up for a presidential run), then it’s an indication of the state of his reputation in the Commonwealth.

      <

      p>As for my post, Z, well, I just had something to say and a blog is for saying what you have to say.  I’m disinclined to crosspost it here as people know where I stand, and it would just end up seen as troll bait by some unfortunate few.

      <

      p>I will also take a second to pledge, as I’m sure will many others, to vote for the Democratic nominee for US Senate this November, regardless of the name.

      • New York has very strict party registration rules and a closed primary.  In New York, to change your registration to vote in a 2008 Democratic primary, yoju needed to make the switch on or before October 12, 2007.  (New voters can choose party at time of registration.)

        <

        p>In Massachusetts, an enrolled voter with solid Republican leanings can pull a Democratic primary ballot to cause mischief.

        • There may be some Republicans who go to the polls strictly to mess in the US Senate primary, but during the end of the presidential primary, I saw a few studies mentioned that aver cross-party meddling is rather overblown, based on voter interviews.  

          • Maybe, but it’s worth a few points.  Also, unenrolled and casual voters are a different animal than party loyalists.  It changes the demographic.

  7. thinks Wilkerson will squeak by.    Is there polling that shows Chang-Diaz with a sizable lead?    

  9. Kerry mid 70s.

    <

    p>Not quite 3 to 1.

    <

    p>And in Middlesex 4:

    <

    p>  Donnelly 56

    <

    p>  Hurd 41

    <

    p>  Marzilli (remember him?) 3

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