Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

The Palin Prediction

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I predict that Palin will “withdraw”, which is a nice way of saying she’ll be asked to leave and will make it seem as though it was on her own accord, most likely for personal/family reasons.

With the catastrophe that has been the Palin choice, it’s not a surprise that many others are betting this will happen, literally and figuratively.


What’s your prediction?

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    • unless the ethics charges get some legs quickly (I shudder to think of the witness intimidation going on as we speak).  The GOP is really good at repeating what they want you to believe until you believe it.  The question is, is 2 months long enough to drum it into you skull: Palin is legit, Palin is legit.

  2. With Palin, McCain is a likely loser. Dropping her at this point makes him an all but certain loser. No chance he lets her withdraw unless there are unrevealed shock treatments for depression in her past.

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    p>She’s in it for the duration.

  3. Two months is a very long time in politics, so they are hoping that everything dies down about Palin. Plus, Palin is popular with the right-wing base, and it’s clear after the pro-choice trial balloon got shot down that McCain is frightened of them.

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    p>Of course, there’s a good chance Palin will be a constant distraction on this campaign, particularly with “Troopergate”, but with other issues as well. It’s no surprise that the Repub spokesmen have acted very defensively about Palin in general, and only the more politically astude ones are trying to turn the attention away from her (by emphasizing that she would “only” be the VP).

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    p>I think the GOP convention’s decision tomorrow to essentially focus on Palin is a big mistake, but we’ll see how it plays out. Perhaps they don’t have much of a choice now.

  4. either before the end of this convention, or a month or so from now.

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    p>The fact of the matter is the most damaging thing, Troopergate, is something we’re just starting to learn about. What we know makes things look… not so good. There’s emails we haven’t seen – and we’ve already heard the audio. The bipartisan Alaska state leg commission’s report is due out in late October.

    <

    p>October surprises, anyone? Seems like the last thing the Republicans can afford. If the Republicans are smart enough to realize that now, we’ll be saying hi to VP Nominee Mitt Romney by the end of the week. That said, I don’t think they’re an all-that-bright group. They’ll realize it later on and she’ll leave for “family problems.”

    <

    p>But, yes, she’s a goner – unless they can do something to squash and/or control that report. Though, given what we already know now, it’s hard to imagine they could find that she didn’t try to exert pressure on the Alaskan State Police to fire an her sister’s ex husband. IMHO, there’s too many people in Alaska that want to take her down for the Republicans to cover that thing up.  

    • already.  Now it’s all about a cost benefit analysis.  Either way they’re going to take a hit.  

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      p>If they keep Palin, there’s the polls that show she does more damage than good for the undecideds.  There’s her utter lack of experience, scandals, etc.

      <

      p>If they get rid of Palin, then it makes McCain look really bad with his poor judgment especially since that was his first major decision.  It’ll also make the campaign look bad since they’ve been bs-ing their way with Palin in regards to the media and trying to make her seem qualified.

      <

      p>Also, did you see this CNN clip?

      <

      p>

      • that CNN bit was scathing.  i hope they’re being as thorough going through her laundry list of problems (see sabutai’s diary) as they are with viewer emails.

      • is absolutely the smart thing to do.

        <

        p>Yes, he’ll take a hit. But then, if they replaced her with someone who oozes competence, experience and good judgement, the media will quickly forgive the ticket and talk about McCane’s uber judgement and how he’s such a pro at the big comeback, yada, yada, yada.

        <

        p>Trust me, I’d love for them to keep her. She’ll turn off independents and undecideds in droves. The potential of TrooperGate could singlehandidly take down that ticket – and make the bump Gore got from Bush’s DUI leakage just days before that election look like a tiny blip (Gore’s poll numbers went up around 5% after that – the election wouldn’t have otherwise have been close).  

          • but the only chance they would have would be to say she needs more time for family or something along those lines.  People may be understanding and forgiving of that.  Whether she leaves or stays it’s going to be a political risk.  

            <

            p>It seems to be getting exponentially worse however.  There was recently the report of GOP pundits saying the Palin pick is “political bullshit”, “gimicky”, and that the “race is over”.

            <

            p>Not to mention the US Weekly cover which hits at the very constituency the Palin pick was trying to go after.

            • … on how it would be framed.  But at this point it would be a ‘lesser of two evils’ kind of decision.  Without his base he has no chance.  Losing her will lose his base, even if he finds another evangelical.  His experience argument depends on him looking like he know’s what he’s doing.  His maverick argument is dependent on him looking like his decisions are his own.  If Palin doesn’t look like his decision now, imagine how it would look if he dumped her for expediency.  If he’s ready to dump her, how much could he have really have had invested in her?  I’m not saying either choice is great, but he could continue to spin her positively and attack the media for any fallout.  If he dumps her he guarantees a negative narrative for weeks (months?) and not just from the media.  

              • And I agree in large part.  I’m just not sure which situation would be worse.  The scandals may be too much to handle though.  We’ll see though.

                <

                p>And tonight’s speech may be enough to keep her in there.  She used to be a news anchor so I’m sure she’ll give a nice speech.

                • … that it’s a question of some negative stories out there that you can defend against by attacking the media vs a guaranteed negative story that will hit you from all sides and run for weeks?

                • the Palin story could be relentless and go on indefinitely till the election.  I think you’re absolutely right that the negative story of dropping her would be much stronger, but it would only last for so long and the wounds could be healed.  

                  <

                  p>So I see it as an issue of short term vs. long term relative damage.  The difference is you see the greater potential harm in the short term for dumping Palin and I see it in the long term for keeping her.

                • … I just don’t think there is enough time on the clock to be thinking “Don’t worry, we have a chance in the long term to recover”.

                • … doesn’t become about Palin being dumped so much as McCain dumping her.  Weeks of questions about who’s advice was he following when he picked her?  Is that person still on the campaign?  Why?  Why didn’t he stand up for his ‘maverick’ principals?  Why did it take until after the convention to stop the bleeding?  

                  <

                  p>And don’t forget about all the repeat mentions of the ‘pick gaff’ that will come up every time he makes another mistake.

          • I doubt this happens.

            <

            p>McCain was down and disadvantaged, and this is an attempt to make a dramatic big play that changes the game.

            <

            p>FWIW, most of the people saying awful things about her are people that were never going to vote for McCain anyway.  Doubtful that Ryan is the target market here.

        • The information out there now, PLAINLY isn’t enough to cause Senator McCain to change the ticket.  You’re just hoping or imagining or wishing that new information comes out.  

          <

          p>It’s a faith over reason expectation, which interestingly is a gambler’s sign of despiration. Whether that analogy carries so far I don’t know.

          <

          p>With your prediction, you’re the guy sitting at the table, drawing to an inside straight.  

  5. The odds of a McCain presidency are actually unchanged since he announced the pick.  That, per your intrade.com source.

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    p>In Europe, where conventional betting on US politics is quite legal, the odds of Ms. Palin being dropped is 1:8, so pretty low.  

    <

    p>The odds of McCain presidency have actually improved very slightly today to 13:8, with Obama at 4:9.

    <

    p>For more interesting bets, and I’m not making this up, you can bet on the possibilties that Ms. Palin is:

    <

    p>Arrested for flashing  10 – 1  

    <

    p>Moose burger addiction  16 – 1  

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    p>Donated money to the Obama campaign  20 – 1  

    <

    p>Is a member of Church of Scientology  25 – 1  

    <

    p>Wears Bill Clinton pyjama’s to bed  50 – 1  

    <

    p>Breaking and entering an Igloo  250 – 1  

    <

    p>Abducted by aliens  500 – 1  
     

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