First, this is why the “lean” numbers in polls at this time of year are important.
Remember all those “leans Democratic” states in this collection of polls? Those are all big trouble for John McCain, and his people know it. There are good reasons why the McCain campaign is conceding Michigan, which in most polls is a “leans Democratic” state.
Second, I know I’ve reported this result already, but I like the pretty picture.
Please share widely!
by adennak
Barring some major game changer – like a woman claiming to carry Obama’s child – this election is done and over with.
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p>People can point to McCain’s campaign botching up things but the fact remains the country is ready for Democratic principles. Rasmussen’s latest poll has Obama ahead by 7 points, and that’s with 40% of those polled believing that Obama will raise their taxes. The exercise of cherry-picking polls is pretty fallible, but watching the long term trends of each major poll(i.e. Rasmussen, Gallup) is enlightening.
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p>I think we will see John McCain try to keep things within 5-8 points for a week or week and a half. Then the kitchen sink is going to come out against Obama, with that strategy peaking right before the election.
One of the more interesting graphics is the one from Princeton that shows the election if McCain gets a 2% boost in every state. It’s here. You will note that, as of today, Obama still wins.