As of now, 182 EVs are “strong” blue, and 68 are “lean,” for a total of 250. If those numbers hold on Nov. 4, then Obama needs to pick up only 20 of the 125 tossup EVs to win. Furthermore, none of the “strong” red states is a surprise. But this is: only 5 EVs (in the form of West Virginia) are listed as “lean.” That suggests that, outside of the solid red states like Texas, North Dakota, Alabama, etc., McCain is not making much headway. To the contrary, states like Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina (!), and Indiana (!!), which in the past would have at least been leaning red at this point, are instead tossups.
Relatedly, some very recent (post-debate) CNN/Time polling is quite encouraging in the tossups.
The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corp. polls of likely voters in Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada and Virginia suggest a shift toward the Democratic presidential nominee.
In Florida, the state that decided the 2000 presidential election, 51 percent of likely voters say Obama, D-Illinois, is their choice for president, with 47 percent backing Republican presidential nominee John McCain….
Obama’s also making gains over McCain in Minnesota, the state in which the Republican convention was held a month ago. Fifty-four percent of those questioned are backing Obama, with 43 percent supporting McCain, R-Arizona. That 11-point lead is much larger than the 2-point advantage Obama had in the last CNN poll taken in Minnesota a month ago.
It’s a similar story in Missouri, where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. That’s a gain for Obama, who was down 5 points to McCain in CNN’s last poll in Missouri, taken three weeks ago. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by 1 point….
The poll also indicates Obama has a 4-point lead over McCain in Nevada, 51- 47 percent. CNN’s last survey in Nevada, taken in late August, had McCain up slightly. A new American Research Group poll in Nevada puts McCain ahead by 2 points.
In Virginia, which hasn’t voted for the Democrats in a presidential contest since 1964, the new poll suggests Obama has a 9-point lead, 53-44 percent.
Finally, I cannot resist posting this hysterically funny video (HT Gawker), which shows the lengths to which Fox will go to create a contest where there is none. Enjoy!
For a little reference, Here is a look at how things were shaping up on this day in 2004. (Granted, October 1st was not the same number of days away from the election in 2004 as it is this year, but close enough.)
i also enjoy RealClearPolitics.com‘s electoral map.
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p>Currently it gives Obama 259 to McCain’s 163 with 116 toss-ups
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p>It’s also updated daily and has lots of new polls. I used to use Pollster most of the time, but I’m enjoying the RCP site more these days…perhaps cause it gives Obama Colorado at the moment, giving him a higher total.
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p>Anyone else worried about an electoral tie? It’s possible only if NH goes red….
which Aaron referenced above. He does a finer granularity with seven categories (strong, weak, barely for each candidate plus toss-up). As of this morning he had Obama up 286-190-62.
The last word in poll analysis: 538.com
that site crashes my browser every time I try to visit. Any ideas? (I use Firefox.)
The site is actually http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/; the link was right, but I typed 538 out of laziness.
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p>Works fine for me on Firefox and Chrome on Windows & Safari and Firefox on Macs….
Fiverthirtyeight.com has become a rather heavy-hitter in aggregate polling circles, given their weighting of historic accuracy. The site is indispensible.
Have you upgraded to FF 3.x yet?
to access the site you should do. It’s phenomenal. I use Firefox at school and I can see it all right? Hmmm.
A’wright… we’ll call it a draw.
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