These insta-polls are fantastic. Kos is absolutely right about this — when the American people, via scientific polling, are able to render their verdict on who won almost immediately after the debate, the views of silly talking heads on TV become totally irrelevant. What a marvelous thing that is.
Especially when, once again, Obama is the convincing winner in the insta-polls. Short summary from kos:
CBS poll of undecided voters:
Who won the debate?
McCain (R) 22
Obama (D) 53Shares your values
Obama, Before the debate: 54
Obama, After the debate: 63McCain, Before the debate: 53
McCain, After the debate: 56Update: CNN poll of voters who watched debate:
Who won the debate?
McCain (R) 31
Obama (D) 58Favorable/Unfavorable
Obama, before debate: 63/35
Obama, after debate: 66/33McCain, before debate: 51/45
McCain, after debate: 49/49
You can read more details on the CBS poll here, and on the CNN poll here.
Why not celebrate Obama’s win by sending a few bucks his way?
Rasmussen, Gallup, Zogby – They do polling. Nothing but polling.
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p>CBS, CNN – they are broadcasters. They decided polling was easy, and decided to do it themselves. Almost as scientific as the State House News guys ‘polling’ for spare change.
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p>Ever notice how polling became ‘inaccurate’ once broadcasters entered the field?
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p>BMG INVARIABLY references network news polls – as long as it’s not Frank Luntz, of course..THAT would be wrong.
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p>This is why Kerry was prancing about Boston on election day, getting himself introduced as President Elect.
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p>Me, I’m waiting for the Rasmussen tracking poll. If you insist on relying on CNN, no fair kvetching about ‘Kansas’ if things don’t turn out the way CBS predicts.
The networks don’t do the polling themselves. It’s CNN/Opinion Research Corp. If you’re wondering, that means that a company called “Opinion Research Corp.” actually does the poll, under contract with CNN, which has the exclusive right to publish the result. Similarly, CBS’s poll is conducted by Knowledge Networks.
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p>CNN’s methodology:
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p>I haven’t got the exact details on CBS, but it was “a nationally representative poll of uncommitted voters to get their immediate reaction to tonight’s presidential debate.”
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p>Oh, and Frank Luntz? Glad you asked. Here he is!
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Hereis the Gallup poll.
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p>Here is the Rasmussen.
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p>Obama is ahead, but not by the distance the TV stations say. So, believe what you want, but I didn’t know these numbers last night when I ‘desperately’ questioned the accuracy of the polls you are so happy about.
Newspapers, etc. They are always listed together with the newspaper or television new channel. This is not new or different in this election cycle.
At the risk of repeating myself…
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p>The best poll aggregation is at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/.
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p>People who reference one poll from one particular date are looking at unfiltered noise.
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p>Yes, the 538 blog itself is overtly pro-Obama, but the polling analysis is transparent and the best around. It corrects for poll bias & accuracy, and integrates state and national trends.
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p>I’ll also repeat myself on another point. Although the numbers look really good for Obama, there’s a lot of screwy stuff that can happen on election day: there’s that court decision in Ohio which may allow wholesale (and apparently illegal) purging of registered voters. Which is a fine example of the Republican voter fraud allegation/voter suppression two-step.
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p>So I repeat: Do not get complacent (I’m not talking to you, PP, here). Seal the deal. Shenanigans can swing a close state; it’s much harder to close a 5+ point gap. OH is close. VA is close. NH is close (kinda). FL is close. And lord knows OH and FL can’t be trusted to run a clean election.
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Take health care. Unless you’re already really familiar with the two health care plans, you probably couldn’t absorb the policy differences between the two candidates in the few minutes they were on health care. And, there are critical policy differences.
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p>Ideally, there would be more time in the debate for discussion on the topic. But there isn’t. So, people’s snap judgments are going to be based on incomplete information.
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p>Better if we had talking heads who would expand on and comment in an informed manner on the policy differences. (Granted, that’s not what we had before snap polls.) Then, voters could base their sense of who won on a combination of policy and a sense of each candidate’s general leadership ability.
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p>Also, there’s no opportunity for an informed commentariat to point out any lies or inconsistencies.
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p>Yes, Obama won and that’s good. But, I don’t feel like the victory is based on enough information.
… as too complicated for any debate forum that doesn’t spend an hour on that subject alone.
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p>As such, health care opinion is probably more a gauge of trust rather than actual policy (or more importantly, policy consequences and implications) understanding.
I really believe that any undecided voter at this point is not going on information. People like that have read the websites and the coverage. Three weeks out, you’re talking to people who may be struggling between “voting for the black guy” versus “voting for the old guy”. In such a case, the policy is a wash, and McCain’s bug-eyed stare showed that he didn’t know diddly about Obama’s health care plan.
I know the first one is legit. Immediately after the debate, McCain and Schieffer were trying to shake hands, but they kept going in opposite directions around the table, so McCain did an awkward little dance and stuck out his tongue before they were able to coordinate a handshake.
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p>One of those unfortunate shapshots in time that will no doubt become Photoshop fodder…
meet the one who will determine your reproductive choice.