Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

How Obama Can Still Lose

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This has been a good couple weeks for Obama, no doubt about it.  

But the electoral map doesn’t give me the confidence I crave.  

Let’s say that McCain manages even a +1.5% gain this month, distributed evenly across all states.  

The resulting 3% swing would be enough to tip all the yellow tossup states, except MN, his way.  

1. I’m cautiously optimistic that Obama’s ground game > McCain’s, though I fear that it might be cancelled out by election day lines in Dem precincts that lose some voters.

2. I’m cautiously optimistic that the Bradley effect is mostly a thing of the past.  

But

It seems quite plausible that

A national security scare sends people towards McCain

or

The bailout issue recedes and some undecideds who leaned Obama out of frustration gravitate back to undecided

or

The GOP gets at least some sort of news hook to fan the flames of Obama attack, such that it leads national news for a few days.

What do you think?  

Is this election in the Sox-up-2 to 0-against-the-Angels category, almost a guaranteed Obama victory?  

Or are you still feeling no more than 60% confident?  

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Comments

  1. I do agree with your enthusiasm.  Obama has a good field operation, witness this report.  Most structural variables favor him: party registration, early voting numbers, generic ballot, supporter enthusiasm, volunteer numbers, financial resources, even the directors of elections in the several states.  But nothing is guaranteed.

    <

    p>I can’t imagine that the economy will remain the top story for a solid month, certainly not in this form.  A tale about byzantine paper shuffles and arcane stock market stupid broker tricks isn’t the type to hold the media’s attention over a solid month.  It’s too complex.  If this were November 1st, I’d say Obama will win big.  I fully expect that as this story moves off the front burner and we go back to a slim Obama lead, rather than a possible Obama blowout (North Carolina and Indiana?  Are you kiddin’ me??) the terrain still favors Barack.

    <

    p>First off, it’s done damage by staining the Republican brand and Republican record still more.  It’s done damage by changing the map — McCain is out of Michigan now, and is going into Indiana.  If conditions significantly revert to where they were four weeks ago, McCain has pissed away time and money.

    <

    p>Secondly, you’re stalking about game changers.  Traditionally a pro-Republican game-changer would be a national security crisis.  I’m not convinced even that would be good for McCain.  If something really bad happens, it’s still Bush and friends that let it happen.  Democrats are trusted as much on national security as Republicans.  If North Korea gets antsy — Bush fouled that up by reneging on our deal with Kim Jong-Il.  If Iran gets antsy — Bush fouled that up by surrounding it with American troops and campaigning aginst its glorified spokesman/president.  Unless we have an event that proves Republicans right — such as a brigade of surge soldiers retained in violation of their recruitment contracts finds Osama bin Laden in Iraq, planning a nukyoolar strike with Ahmadinejad, who only reveals the location after torture, it’s not a game changer.

    <

    p>We share one worry, though — that of the attack machine.  My worry isn’t much in what McCain says, because he can’t say much.  What worries me most is how Obama reacts — that he will make the same mistake as Kerry and Gore.  He has done a better job of fighting back so far lately, but he was poor at punching back at Hillary Clinton.  I worry that as McCain pushes all his chips into his smear campaign that Obama can’t and won’t keep up.  Obama has done well taking the high road, but there’s fine line between ignoring attacks and rising above them.  If I have one worry, it’s that Obama’s campaign will try to stay out of the muck, rather than climbing down in there for a second to punch McCain’s campaign in the mouth, then climbing back up.

    • Obama is willing to fight back.  Keating Five stuff today.  

      <

      p>Do you think he’s fighting back the right way?  

  3. If you’re looking for a good electoral college, might I recommend Princeton? You will note that you get to select a map that boosts McCain by 2% in every state. As of today, that does the following to the swing states:

    StateEffect
    New HampshireObama
    VirginiaObama
    North CarolinaTie
    FloridaObama
    IndianaMcCain
    MinnesotaMcCain
    ColoradoTie
    New MexicoObama
    NevadaObama

    That turns out to be more than enough to win handily — and I find it difficult to believe that Minnesota would go for McCain. The fact that McCain has to devote any resources at all to North Carolina, Virginia, or Missouri is mind-boggling.

  4. 1) He is not qualified for the job. Hillary Clinton/John McCain/Sarah Palin/Joe Biden are all more so than he.

    <

    p>2) His worldview is decidedly anti-American; “I know my country has not perfected itself.” These are words which should not be issued on foreign soil by a would-be Presidential aspirant. http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2…

    <

    p>3) His “political organization” is corrupt: voter fraud is rampant. http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2…

    <

    p>4) He has limited appeal: http://www.latimes.com/news/po…

    • (1) I’d argue that McCain (reckless, angry, incurious, and ambitious) is unqualified as at least three Republican Senators have said before he became the nominee. And who likes Palin’s pettiness, cronyism, ignorance, and manipulative folksiness? Who, I mean, other than Tina Fey’s writers?

      <

      p>(2) This comment sounds so stupid to me I don’t know where to begin. You believe he should be saying the U.S. is perfect. Really?

      <

      p>(3) Thin sourcing.

      <

      p>(4) You quote an article about Obama’s attempts to win Virginia (!) as an example of his limited appeal. Virginia?  How about McCain’s limited appeal in Michigan, Iowa, and New Mexico?

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