Boy, just when you think things can’t get worse for Team McCain, another three electoral votes move into the “possible” column for the Obama camp. Look at that big yellow blotch at the top of the pollster.com map — North Dakota has been reclassified as “tossup,” presumably due to the most recent poll in that state, which showed Obama with a tiny 45-43 lead (12% undecided).
I’m not holding out a lot of hope for ND, and I wouldn’t expect Obama to suddenly dump a lot of resources into picking it up. Still, the fact that it’s even remotely in play is extraordinary.
Please share widely!
Sending Obama or Biden to ND would certainly be a waste at this point, but I wonder if Obama’s keeping up any advertising there? It would surely be super-cheap to advertise, and at the very least advertising there would strongly bolster the narrative that Obama is on the offense (not that’s it’s particularly hard to keep up that narrative otherwise…).
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p>By the way, I’m in RI, and I’m seeing a LOT of Obama’s ads down here, and I don’t watch all that much TV. It’s mainly that one hitting McCain over taxes and stating that Obama wouldn’t raise taxes on those making over $250,000. I still haven’t seen a single McCain ad ever down here.
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p>If Obama’s advertising in RI, you think he’s got some money to burn? He must have had a ridiculous September in the fund-raising game.
There was an email from the Obama campaign with a video by David Plouffe a while ago that identified North Dakota as a battleground state. So I have to think they’ve been sinking some resources there. It’s probably lower-key, ground game stuff. Maybe the effort is finally bearing fruit.
ND has two Democratic Senators. Maybe they could stump around the state for Obama?
If they were on the Providence affiliates, then yeah, you have a point, but they get WBZ, WHDH, WCVB, WFXT, and others down there, and both major campaigns have been involved with large ad buys on the Boston stations as they reach viewers in New Hampshire. So even though you are seeing them in Rhode Island, they may be targeted at New Hampshire voters.
I’ll have to make note of it next time I see a commercial.
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p>Still, what’s interesting here is that while clearly “both major campaigns” are fighting hard for NH, the truth is that I have not seen a single ad for McCain — ever — here in RI. So while it makes sense that the commercials I’m seeing are on MA channels, it’s certainly very one-sided. Maybe McCain’s not buying on the MA stations?
But truthfully I’m seeing way more Jeanne Shaheen/John Sununu dueling ads.
This data is from Fox News. Imagine how people from the right, who come to Fox for comfort, feel when they see this:
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p>Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Missouri: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
North Carolina: Obama 48%, McCain 48%
Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 47%
Virginia: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
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A mere two point swing in the other direction makes this a race again. Things look good, but they’ve looked that way before, no complacency.
I think this is the result of the 50 state strategy. Obama worked hard for the ND caucus, so he has an organization there. He campaigned there earlier (4th of July?). There has been a bit of a Demo resurgence lately across the northern prairie states, economic populism being a big factor. This is the heartland of the old progressive / populist movement of 100 years ago. They have a Democratic senator. Montana is another state ripe for the picking.
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p>The 50 state strategy is about playing offense and not defense. It wouldn’t be hard to shift resources back into North Dakota. Fargo is North Dakota’s biggest city/media market and sits on the Minnesota border (might some of the MN ad money actually come out of the Fargo market?).
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p>Plus, when a campaign tanks like McCain’s is, and the election begins to turn into a landslide, a lot of states we don’t normally do well in will come into play, or at get closer. At the very least Republican margins will be significantly lower even in places like Mississippi and Texas. Losing by 10% instead of 20% can have a big impact on downticket races.
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p>I always like the 50 state strategy. I wish we hadn’t waited 40 years to get back to it.
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Most of these polls fall into the margin of error. Polls are mere snapshots.
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p>The Republicans will stop at nothing. The attacks! The market rally. Lower oil prices!
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p>We can’t become complacent. Keep campaigning with determination and drive!
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First of all, there’s no voter reg in ND. You 18? Live in ND? Got proof? Here’s a ballot. This means that nobody knows who’s a voter, or if they’re an R or a D or a whatevs.
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p>Secondly, ND has a large First Nations population. They aren’t believed to vote in large numbers historically, but many have been active in Obama campaigns within the state. Could Native Americans put ND in play the way African Americans might put Georgia in play?
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p>Thirdly, unlike GA, ND does have two Dem senators.
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p>Fourthly, ND’s population density is weighted heavily on their eastern border, which they share with Minnesota and Iowa — two Obama states. So, there’s advertising bleed but also other interactions on the border, all of which help Obama.
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p>The odds that those 3 EVs matter is extrememly low. But, plucking them off helps later. It helps with national down ballot races like Senate and House, but it also helps with state rep (61-33 GOP) and state senate (26-21) races, which are four year seats staggered every two. If Obama is competitive in North Dakota, could he help peel off 3 state senate seats, giving the Dems the majority in the upper house?
Very Canadian of you! I’d like to see that term come into use down here in the states; it’s more accurate than “American Indian” or “Native American”.
How much I converse (online) with Canadians…I didn’t even blink at his use of that til you pointed it out!