Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Pollster.com update: could things get any worse for McCain? Sure!

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We keep asking if things could get worse for Team McCain, expecting the answer to be no.  And then they do.

Pollster.com has reclassified VA, which hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since 1964, as “lean blue” (from “tossup,” which itself was remarkable).  That shifts 13 EVs into Obama’s estimated total.  If McCain can’t hold VA, it’s really hard to see how he can avoid a blowout of epic proportions, much less eke out a win.

In other news, both PA and MI have been reclassified as “strong blue” (from “lean blue”).  Other key swing states like CO and FL have been teetering on the border between “strong” and “lean” blue over the last few days.  Should be interesting to see whether tonight — McCain’s last remaining chance to talk directly to a whole lot of Americans before Nov. 4 — changes anything, or whether the trend either plateaus or accelerates.

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  1. CNN/Time 10/11-14: Obama +10
    FOX/Rasmussen 10/12: Obama +3
    PPP(D) 10/6-7: Obama +8
    FOX/Rasmussen 10/5: Obama +2

    <

    p>The last poll showing McCain in the lead was from 10/1 and, even so, there were polls before that one showing Obama in the lead.

    I’m wondering whether the other toss up states will go blue. I’m guessing it will be in this order: NV, NC, WV, MO, IN, ND — then, GA, MT.

    • NV, MO, NC, IN, ND, WV, MT, GA.

      <

      p>The GOP seems to have given up on POTUS, instead spending their money to defend senate seats in MS’, NC, GA, KY, OR, MN, NH — and they seem to have given up on defending VA and NM.  I expect they’ll give up on NH and CO very soon, and MS’ or GA if polling shows the GOP in better shape.  It’s a shame Tom Allen never really got traction in Maine.  The other safe or relatively safe GOP senate seats are all pretty deep red — TX, KY, SC, NE, OK, ID, KS, TN, WY, MS, WY’, AL.

      <

      p>I only hope that the Democrats are able to start off 2009 the way they tried to start 2007 — a few pieces of short and sweet legislation for key Democratic demographics — students, environmental, seniors, soldiers.  Then, some bigger bits on health care, and trade/labor, and tax code.

      • Maine is a sad case.

        <

        p>Driving up the negatives of Collins or Snowe has to become a multi-year effort. It cannot wait until after some Democrat declares she or he is ready to mount a challenge.

        <

        p>Otherwise, the ghost of Margaret Chase Smith comes down and hands the seat back to Republicans.

  2. Undecideds, well they decide.  How many of those voters lean to the right?  I don’t know.  This in no way means that I think McCain has a shot, but things should be getting closer in those battleground states.  

    <

    p>Or I could be wrong and it will be a blowout (by current standards).

    • for two reasons:

      <

      p>1.  As McCain is behind with less and less time to go, he’s got to go for (yet another) Hail Mary.  Hail Marys usually fall as incomplete passes, and are interceptions as often as they’re touchdowns.  So, odds are that he’s seen as erratic, or worse.

      <

      p>2.  AS the narrative becomes “Obama blowout” the Obamaniacs and Obamamas will be excited, work GOTV, and certainly vote themselves.  Conversely, the Palin pushers will feel the onset of defeat, and just not be that interested in the election.  It’s far easier to back a winner than a loser.

      <

      p>Between the two of them, I think there’s a real chance that Obama parlays the excitement into wins in Georgia, North Carolina, North Dakota, and possibly even NE-02 and Mississippi [in addition to VA, IN, WV, MO, NV, CO, NM, OH, FL].  That’d be a 405-133 blowout of epic proportions.  Of course, I don’t think the “real chance” has a high probability, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Obama sniffs at 400 EVs especially if McCain goes for a knockout and whiffs mightily.

        1. One route out of McCain’s polling deficit is the route Truman took, i.e., “Give ’em hell, Harry!” (Sorry stomv) Yet recent polling in the New York Times suggests that McCain’s negative campaign is having a negative effect all right — on McCain. Checkmate.
        2. Rollins, a strategist for Reagan, has made the case I’ve read on the liberal side: people want change but they’re uncertain about Obama (just as they were uncertain about Reagan). Obama’s no drama style, his discipline, his evident intelligence, and his focus on the issues are making a clear and attractive contrast to McCain. Lots of conservatives are noticing this too. Plenty of bellyaching there. Once people get comfortable with Obama, they’ll move toward supporting him and stay there. Just like Reagan in 1980.

      • Yes, if the narrative is that McCain is a loser, then you can see this thing start to get bigger and bigger for Obama.  For those who vote for Obama, what’s the impact for Senate races?  Do we get Obama plus 60?

        <

        p>But I still think it will tighten the closer we get to the election, around the last week.  Again, unless the McCain campaign is completely off the rails at that point.

  3. Give money, go to NH, etc., etc., and so forth.

    <

    p>Things look good, but great numbers now don’t mean anything if we don’t have great numbers on election day.

    <

    p>Close the deal.

    • The easier targets: OR, NC

      <

      p>The knife edge: MN

      <

      p>The just-within-reach: GA, KY, MS

      <

      p>The long shots: TX, NE

        • I don’t usually give to a bunch of political candidates. I usually volunteer, phone bank, and canvass, but this year, I don’t have a lot of time due to my job and stuff going on with my family. I think our party has the best chance for Democratic Senatorial candidates to ride in on Obama’s coattails in red states. I’ve donated to the following candidates, for various reasons, as well as Obama.

          <

          p>Shaheen, Senate, NH
          Lunsford, Senate, KY (he’s behind Mitch McConnell, but polls are pretty close)
          Musgrove, Senate, MS
          Franken, Senate, MN
          Merkley, Senate, OR
          Begich, Senate, AK (goodbye Ted Stevens)
          Noriega, Senate, TX
          Jim Martin, Senate, GA (Saxby Chambliss is an evil SOB for what he did to Max Cleland)
          Shea-Porter, House, NH
          Hall, House, NY
          Bean, House, IL
          Lampson, House, TX (Tom Delay’s old district)
          Markey, House, CO (Marilyn Musgrave’s challenger)
          Himes, House, CT (hopefully will oust the last Republican congress critter in New England, Chris Shays)

          <

          p>I also gave to the DSCC and DCC since they’re matching 100% until Friday. I am now officially tapped out.
           

    • What you say is true, but even if it weren’t, I still think it’s important to work for a blow-out victory, and not just a squeaker. Claim a real mandate, unlike the mandate Bush claimed in 2000. Get a big victory and then Obama’ll have true political clout to use in the first hundred days.

      <

      p>Gotta get up to NH (or other swing states if you can) and work for a real chance at change. Because if Obama merely squeaks out a victory, he’ll have a harder time putting things in motion.

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