Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Rasmussen: Yes, Obama really did win the last debate

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A certain prickly BMGer questioned the reliability of CBS's and CNN's almost immediate post-debate polling showing a substantial Obama win, arguing that networks are crappy pollsters and that the great Rasmussen was far more trustworthy on such matters.  Well, Rasmussen’s results are in.  And guess what?  CNN and CBS were right.  

Rasmussen: who won? (Obama-McCain-tie)

47-33-21

A 14-point win, well outside the poll’s +/- 3% margin of error.  And, of course, when you factor in the reality that a tie at this stage is effectively an Obama win, the victory becomes that much larger.

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  1. In the past, the TV would ask pundits who won the debate. With most pundits being no more liberal than Broder, that usually meant that the Republican, of course, won the debate. The advantage of these polls, even it’s the State House News guy polling for spare change, is that they are still much more accurate measure than can be had by asking David Brooks, David Broder, or David Gregory.

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    p>(I know I am repeating a left blogospheric talking point, but it bears repeating.)

  2. Brush up on hanging chads! The scramble for the Oval Office is “tightening” to 2 percentage points, with recent presidential history of photo finishes poised to repeat itself, a noted pollster says.

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    p>Barring a serious slip-up or riveting news event, it appears that Barack Obama and John McCain will be up late on Nov. 4 while the votes are counted.

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    p>”The race is tightening,” said Frank Newport, editor of polling powerhouse Gallup. “That’s what makes it so fascinating.”

    • Here’s the word from Rasmussen:

      The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-three straight days. McCain has not been up by even a single point in over a month (see trends).

      What does Gallup say?  Here’s the tracking poll:

      PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Wednesday through Friday, including two days of interviewing after Wednesday night’s final presidential debate, shows Barack Obama with a 50%to 42% lead over John McCain among registered voters.

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      p>The Gallup graph:

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      p>All of a sudden, Gallup weights a sample to create a demographic of people who voted in the 2004 election and, surprise, the race tightens.  Believe those numbers only if you believe anyone who registered to vote in the past four years, or didn’t make it to the polls for Bush or Kerry,  won’t show up at the polls in 2008.  

    • If you knew what you were doing, you’d be peddling the opposite line.  The biggest danger to Obama right now is overconfidence and complacency (with a close second being the Republican drive to disenfranchise as many people as possible).  A web poll from the beginning of the month is not relevant.

      • (God only knows where it came from)

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        p>That Obama is opposed by a tired old man, who is rightfully or wrongfully, tied to one of the most abysmal presidents in US history

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        p>That Obama has the MSM in the tank for him

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        p>And he is in only a statistical dead heat, or a few points ahead and the polling accuracy is questionable?

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        p>Over confident is the least of your worries. You may find yourself absolutely stunned. Even worse—you think that there will be an inauguration in January—nio matter who allegedly wins in Nov?

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        p>This will be tied up in courts for months–why—-VOTER FRAUD.  The DNC was crazy to allow ACORN to pull this crap—it gives the RNC cover to allege the entire election has been compromised and even if SCOTUS gives it to whomever—there is going to be trouble in River City!  

        • Your cheerleading of any effort to derail democracy in this country only cheapens all who read it.  Your last lines also feel rather close to advocating an armed insurrection against an Obama presidency.

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          p>You are about to lose, fair and square.  Get used to the idea, and try to learn from it.  Tantrums help nobody.

  3. in my life to be starting up the David Koresh style survialist family compound.  Having the financial resources I surely would take on such an endeavor.  I have the memories of an excellent life full of fun with family and community oriented contributions that I in my status of peon American could possibly contribute.

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    p>I have three patents, I have provided low cost rentals to several people, I have flow airplanes, can sweat copper pipes, weld stuff and ride Apocalytic horses.  Do I really care at this point in my life what the “you should think this way” propaganda media tells me?

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    p>No, zero white collar bank robber asshole globalist CEO scumbags will ever see a prison like Attica and a cellmate named Bubba, who likes his sex.  That would just about destroy  the “confidence index” in American government, federal, state and local in my humble opinion.

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    p>I care not who “won” the “debate”.

    • And as I am too old to give a crap what the establishment gestapo (read progressive thought police) may sanction me with, because I’ve already been there and back–, I really don’t care. I’ve been around long enough to know just where to throw the monkey wrench.

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      p>Don’t like horses—but I fly!  

      • are both expensive.  I miss my conversations with my former Russian boss who in 1984 said to his boss “This is the second socialist country I have lived in”.  Take that monkey wrench and use it often and when you can.  You comment is spot on and I trust you know were to throw the sabots into the machinery.

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