Three debates (including the VP) down, and no game-changers. There’s virtually no chance of a game-changer in debate #4 either, since Obama has proven that he is far too cool and collected to do anything really stupid in a debate; he has nailed the art of looking presidential in these settings; and McCain doesn’t fare all that well in the lectern setup that will be the final encounter, nor on domestic affairs, to which the final debate is limited.
I guess there’s Bill Ayers. But that kind of attack just isn’t going to resonate with the independents that McCain needs to have any shot at moving states like OH, PA, and FL at least back into the tossup category, while preventing GOP must-wins like IN, NC and VA from trending blue. Even a serious wingnut like David Frum thinks the Ayers strategy is a loser — as he correctly asks, “Bill Ayers? Does anybody really seriously believe that Barack Obama is a secret left-wing radical? And if not, then what is this fuss and fury supposed to show?”
Bill Kristol thinks he has the strategy: he says that Obama is “for raising taxes, federally funding abortions, naming activist judges, and losing wars,” and that Americans “probably aren’t crazy about the prospect of a liberal administration governing unchecked, hand in hand with a liberal Congress.” In other words, Kristol wants to reignite the culture wars, with an overlay of “Barack hates America.” Again, that strategy is going nowhere fast with the independents. It plays to the base. But at this point, the base is irrelevant, isn’t it? Even if they all show up, it’s not enough for McCain to win. Frum, for his part, thinks the best strategy is to paint Obama as a corrupt Chicago pol, but in the same breath he concedes that that won’t be enough: “He’s a normal Chicago politician. That’s the problem. Unfortunately for our team, it’s probably not a big enough problem.”
So where does that leave John McCain? He has less than four weeks to turn the election around. He is facing a nearly impossible electoral map, which is forcing him to expend resources in states that he shouldn’t have to defend at this point, and on top of that he has an enormous financial disadvantage. The economy continues to behave erratically and frighteningly, virtually guaranteeing that that issue — his weakest — will remain on the front burner at least through election day. And nothing seems to be working.
I wonder, frankly, whether McCain has already figured out that he cannot win, and so he is instead starting to look after his legacy. If he thought he had a real shot, wouldn’t he have been far more aggressive last night, on the off-chance that it might give him the boost he needs? His performance last night was obviously not calculated to be a game-changer — he took no risks, he offered nothing that could even come close to shifting the momentum of this race. I wonder whether McCain has decided that, after he loses, he doesn’t want to be remembered as the guy who ran the nastiest, most dishonorable campaign in recent memory. I think he’d like to get back to the guy who claimed in the early going that he would run a respectful campaign that eschewed “overheated rhetoric and personal attacks on our opponents.” To the guy who, even though he lost, tried to fight what he saw as the good fight.
I could be quickly proven wrong about this — we’ll see what McCain says on the stump over the next few days. Meanwhile, our biggest challenge is to avoid complacency at all costs! Don’t stop giving money, either to the Obama campaign or to down-ticket races that could dramatically change the Congress for the better. Don’t stop volunteering. Make sure that after election day, whatever the outcome, you can look yourself in the mirror and say that you did what you could do help ensure the outcome you want.
Almost every campaign (remember Hillary? McCain earlier this year? Howard Dean?) it is speculated that the candidate losing is just about ready to give up and “worry about their legacy.” Time and time again, the candidates “surprise” us with their inability to go away and instead turn more negative in the waning days of their campaigns.
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p>I think we are seeing and should expect more of the same from McCain/Palin over the next four weeks.
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p>More Reverend Wright, more “small town values” (less lazy black criminals), more sneering references to ACORN and “community organizers.” We’ll see more “typical Chicago politician”, more “Franklin Raines,” and more “this is not a man who sees America the way that you and I see America.” Indeed, the Ayers stuff only helps them deflect criticism of their use of the race card in these other contexts. (It’s not about race, it’s about patriotism!)
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p>In my opinion, the GOP and McCain have come pretty close to the line in arguing that the financial crisis is primarily the result of “political correctness.” That we wouldn’t be in this mess if guilty white liberals hadn’t made all these bad loans to stupid black people.
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p>As the McCain/Palin campaign gets more desperate, I lament that I suspect we will only see all of this intensify. Let’s hope it is only the dying utterances of a failed campaign rather than the beginning of yet another improbable comeback. Let us hope.
“”He ought to admit. You know, I’ve got to be honest with you. I was a guy of the street. I was way to the left. I used cocaine.”
Yes, watching McCain last night was kind of like watching a football team down 4 touchdowns in the 4th quarter. He just doesn’t want it to become a blow-out.
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p>I think most of the pundits were thinking what Carville came out and said last night (“it’s over”).
his record is far from spotless, but mccain has demonstrated episodes of decency throughout his career.
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p>you could say that he stood back and let kerry be swiftboated in ’04, but he did speak out against it to some degree, much to anger of the rovian republican win-at-all-costs crowd. and he has passed up opportunities to join in some of the more depraved partisan attacks of his party.
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p>and it seems like he just can’t muster up that go-for-the-jugular trash that presidentette-in-waiting sarah palin seems to so eagerly employ. and that plenty of talking heads and apparatchiks are begging him to do.
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p>so good for him. even as it eliminates any chance that he’ll pull this election out. there is some honor awaiting him if he continues to run a mostly clean campaign, based on the real issues of the day, and let the voters decide.
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p>of course, that could all go out the window by next week’s polling data.
The anti-equality marriage amendments in 2000, 2004 and again this year (AZ, CA, FL) have been used as “get out the vote” devices for the GOP. Could it be possible this cycle that McCain-Palin have so discouraged GOP voters that the scheme works in reverse and the amendments fail? In other words, instead of the amendments cementing a McCain victory, could McCain be cementing the defeat of the amendments?
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p>I certainly hope so, since polls show that, at this moment, all of these amendments are still expected to pass. And Mr Jim Crow Obama isn’t offering any coattail to those of us working to defeat the amendments.
“So to clarify, do you support gay marriage, Senator Biden?”
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p>”Absolutely not. But I do think they should be allowed to visit one another in the hospital and in a lot of ways, that’s just as good, if not better.”
First. I HAVE NO INSIDE INFORMATION. I THINK THE CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN RUN VERY BADLY.
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p>What is Next here is what I would do if I were making these decisions.
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p>I would educate people about ACORN related issues. Righ now, in addition to the voter fraud invetigations, what is far more resonant is the lawsuits Obama worked on to force risky loans. It can be argued that he thought that it would be a few isolated failures that the banks could afford after decades of cherry-picking, and that eh couldn’t foresee the bundling of these loans and their sale as securities. But even then – what does that say about his ability to anticipate consequences? And if he’s so wrong about the ultimate result, then why are so many of his bundlers and supporters from the financial and real estate industry? Are any of those bundlers of his employed at Lehrman Bros. under investigation? Any correlation between them and the fundraising that the FEC is investigating?
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p>Stuff like that.
So McCain can win by accusing groups of voter fraud? That isn’t a strategy to win, that is a strategy to de-legitimize the democratic process if you lose.
And if they planned to game the system on behalf of his Obama, that’s sort of blown.
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p>No, the lawsuits and lawsuit tutelage that Obama was involved with casts far more shadow on his judgement. Even if his heart was in the right place – he seemed clueless about the repercussions of his activism.
is not going to make a difference 4 weeks from election day.
unless the punchline is underaged boys, crack-addled prostitutes, or hosting potlucks for al-qaeda (with crack-addled prostitutes).
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People WANT to understand and access complex (sometimes artificially complex) issues – especially when they affect them.
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p>For example, doing some research the other day, I was SHOCKED to see that in this CALEDAR YEAR – not session, but since January – the Lege. has passed EIGHT bond bills, and SIX supplemental budgets! While we’re allegedly broke!
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p>And that was just a quick skim, opening bills with bond-y sounding names.
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p>Some bond have had their expiration dates extended to 2043. I likened it to a person with a 15 yr. mortagage refinancing it to a 30 year mortgage to lower the payments – the capital remains untouched while more interest is paid.
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p>Nobody had a problem understanding when it was explained in those terms.
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p>People are much smarter than the political class gives them credit for (due to an unfounded belief that if people don’t agree with you they must be stupid). They’d kill for 7 minutes of meat instead of 7 minutes of schlock.
by policy, i agree with you completely.
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p>but if you’re talking about the presidential campaign, you’re talking about a process whereby comparing one candidate to brittany spears may end up influencing who becomes the leader of the most powerful nation on earth.
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p>not cynical. just not as reaganly gauzy about the grandeur of the american body politic.
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John ‘The Petulant Child’ McCain and ‘Sarah Six-Pack’ Palin still have a few weeks to come in lower and lower. The GOP is far from done with slime-ing Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
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p>Obama-Biden supporters don’t be lulled into thinking victory is at hand until after November 4!
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p>Republican media conglomerates are ccreating a false semse of secutity to get us to take our eye off the ball. Bill Crystal is re-igniting the culture wars. Palin is throughing out Ayers to scare folks with a red herring. McCain has shown he will use whatever it takes and come in as low as it takes to get the job done!
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p>Obama-Biden supporters stay energized!
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p> YES WE CAN!
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p> GO OBAMA-BIDEN!
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p> DON’T LET THE REPUBLICANS STEAL THIS ONE!
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The corporate media will always spin in favor of Repuiblicans(with the exception of Olbermann, Maddow, and sometimes Matthews), so no surprise there. Republicans are working in the swing states to suppress the vote. My big fear is massive voter disenfranchisement and subsequent chaos like in 2000. Obama has to be ahead in the swing states by at least 10 points to counter the number of his supporters that will be disenfranchised.